저자: MikeSwartz · 외국인
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미국 증시 반등 속 기술주 주도 상승, 관세 불확실성과 Jamie Dimon의 시장 경고가 리스크로 언급됨. 나스닥·S&P500 선물은 주요 지지·저항 레벨을 기준으로 단기 방향을 제시하며 엔비디아 실적(다음날) 전 변동성 확대를 경고. 엔비디아는 153~139 되돌림 구간 가능성을 언급. 최근 VIX 상승을 근거로 추가 변동성 예상.
다듬은 글
Today stocks came bouncing back even after Jamie Diamond gave a stock market warning. Now when we come over look at how the indies fared across the board today. The Dow was up 370 points. The NASDAQ was up 236 points. S&P 500 up 52 points with the Russell 2000 being up 2.84. Now we come over look at advancing issues versus declining.
We had 66.3% of issues advancing on the day. As we come over look at the sectors across the board. We only had one sector in the red. That was healthcare. Every other sector was in the green. And look what was leading out there today. Technology was leading out there. Now, yesterday we talked about financials a little bit.
We come over and look at XLF. Well, today we were able to hit that ABC pattern. And what did the market do? Trying to bounce on the way back up. And we'll see can XLF get right back above this lower swing point that we have recently broken out from. Now with XLF, I also want to take a look at KREE, the regional banking ETF, kind of a dogey looking candle, and I still think there could be more trouble on the horizon.
And as we look at the fear and green decks right now, we're sitting at 43. We are still over in the fear territory. However, could we be about to go over into neutral? Let's not forget tonight there could be volatility out there. So if you guys like to trade the Asia session, tonight could be a night worth trading because we have this state of the union address.
And is Trump going to go ahead and try to pump the stock market? Let me know your thoughts in the comment section down below. Now, there's still a lot of uncertainty out there, especially when it has to do with tariffs. Supreme Court says tariffs are illegal. Trump says, "I'm putting more tariffs back on." And now FedEx starts to fight for tariff refunds by suing the Trump administration.
So, not only did us, the consumer, have to pay the price of higher tariffs, but are we now going to have to foot the bill to pay back all the tariffs that we've already done? Basically getting double charged. To me, that's not going to be a very good look. Now, if we come over real quick, let's take a look at the dollar index today.
What the dollar index do? Dollar index was up a little bit, but we we can see we have a little bit of a wick on top of this candle. We're really having a hard time pushing up and out of this area. Now the dollar index does have an ABC pattern up here at 98.91. Now when we talk about the dollar, we cannot leave out gold.
And we look at gold today. Gold came down, taken out the low from the prior day, but then closing in in the middle of the range. So gold, even though it was selling off, it was unable to stay at those lower prices. We come over and take a look at silver real quick. Silver also kind of a hangymanish looking candle, which could be part of a reversal pattern, seeing silver come right back down.
However, when we come over and take a look at what Jaime Diamond has to say, "Watch out as lofty asset prices add to economic risk. My anxiety is high." And we'll see, you know, is Jamie Demon basically just putting out, you know, negative news, trying to get the market down so that the bank can buy back at lower prices, trying to scale all trying to scare all of us retail traders out of the market.
We come over and we also look Jamie Dean also has to say. He warns market resembles prefinancial crisis error. I see a couple of people doing some dumb things. And I got to be honest with you, I think it's more than just a couple people. But let's not forget we are also right around the corner from tomorrow's major event.
Tomorrow after the bell, we're going to get Nvidia coming out with earnings. And as we come over and look at a price chart of Nvidia, notice it's right here at the top of the range. So if Nvidia wants to go ahead and come back down, it's at a perfect location to do so. However, there is an A2B equals CD pattern that could be about to play out.
This is the A2B leg. The B TOC leg is a corrected move and that gives us a price completion on Nvidia up here at 2011. But I want to caution you guys real quick before we get too bullish on Nvidia because if we come over and simply look at this on a monthly time frame, I want this is something this is a concept we talk about all the time on the live stream.
We talk about structure breakout points or structure breakdown points. If you guys don't want to miss the next time I go live, make sure you subscribe, you have the bell notifications turned on for all. But for me, this is going to be a logical retracement area in which Nvidia will come back and test at some point most likely this year.
That range is going to be anywhere from 153.75 down to about 139.21. Also, if we look at the MACD indicator, look how it's starting to have that round effect way, way elevated above the zero line. Also, another cause for concern. Now, as we come over, look at the spy real quick. We can see we've been stuck in this upper level consolidation.
But I want to check something real quick. The spy today was up 73%. Well, if we look at the RSP, which is going to be the equal weight S&P 500, it was up 0.80%. So, it's not just like a couple stocks were actually pushing the markets up today. And notice we are kind of in the middle of this consolidation area.
And we got to be very, very cautious because tonight once Trump speaks, we could see massive volatility out here in the markets. Now, if we come over and we look at the gamma exposure levels real quick, notice right around 675, we have a lot of gamma exposure to the downside. And as we start to look on the way up 687 and then also right around 700.
Well, if we look at the closing price, we came in at 687.35. So, as we look at this, if we can clear this gamma exposure level right here, can we start working our way back up towards that 700 strike price? Now, speaking of things working up, I want to remind you guys today is the last day to take advantage of Apex's 90% sale off all their evaluation accounts.
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Not only can you see all the evaluation rules in one place, we can see the hard breach rules, the excluded countries, and the rules dealing with once you are in a funded account. So, if you guys want to check that out, don't forget to go to propermike.com. Well, now as we come over and look at the 30-inut time frame real quick, what do we have going on?
We kind of have a P and Paul shaped profile. And remember what I told you guys yesterday? Yesterday was a B as in boy shaped profile which meant if we got back above value area high. I expect the market to go back and explore the upper third of the range and I kind of talked about this minus development area and that ended up being the high price out here for the spy.
Now notice the MACD indicator is still crossed up on the 30-inut chart but just like we talked about yesterday this time in reverse with a PM and Paul shaped profile. If we start breaking below value area low 685.72, then I want to expect the market to come back down towards the lower third of the range and then potentially work on lower prices because let's not forget on the daily chart if we come back down through these levels again, this support is probably going to give way and then we can start picking off some of these other high volume nodes over here on the composite profile.
Now, we come over look at the futures markets real quick. Let's start off looking at the 4hour time frame and we can see we've had one heck of a consolidation area. Now I do have a support zone right down here we've had marked off and if we start coming back down that could be a key point but in the meantime we have this potential for an A tob equals CDD pattern.
We can see that pattern would complete right right up here near the untested point of control at 6965.75. In order to validate this pattern we need to get above the swing point over here. And if we go below the low of today, that also would invalidate this pattern. So, two key levels that we most certainly want to pay attention to.
Now, as we come over and look at the daily volume profiles over here on the 30-inut chart, here's one of the zones that we identified this morning on the live stream. Basically, candle w candle body to the candle wick. I said, "Watch out. Highly probable we're going to come up towards that area." And that's exactly what the market did.
If you guys were paying attention to the video last night, I also talked about this structure breakout point. Bada bing, bada boom. The market achieved that goal. So now what is going to be in the cards for tonight and tomorrow? Well, tonight if we can get above 6910 and a half, then we can come back down below it.
I'd want to target the point of control. I would want to target this high volume node at 68.889 and then down here towards value area low. If we start breaking below value area low, I want to see can we come back down starting to challenge the lows from today. And if we break that coming right down towards this support level that we talked about on the 4hour time frame right around 67.99 down to about 6792.
Now we look at the volatility index today the VIX was down 6.95% and I warned you guys yesterday the fact that the VIX was up more than 10% implied that either today or tomorrow was going to be an update in the market and today we had an update in the market. Now we can see if we just simply look left to right do we see the VIX trending upward?
I would say so. And I think there's going to be more volatility up ahead. Now, if we come over real quick, take a look at the QQQs on the daily chart. What do we have taking place? Well, we still have a potential for a double bottom pattern. Bottom number one, bottom number two, we're waiting to see, can we get up above the neckline up here at 617.62.
If we do, then we have a price target at 642.01. And just because I say we have a price target does not mean we are going to get there in one single day. Now when we come over look at the gamma exposure levels. This is something we haven't seen in a while. We've been seeing a lot of negative gamma on the downside.
We haven't been seeing a whole lot to the upside. Notice right here right around 609. We have a lot of gamma exposure. I'd actually say probably about 607 to about 609. Well, if we look at where we closed today, we closed right up here at 607.82. So, is it any real surprise we had a hard time pushing up and out of this area?
Something we want to watch out for tomorrow is going to be the fact that if we can break above 609, hold price above it, then I think it can be clear blue skies working its way up, trying to validate this double bottom pattern that we just talked about moments ago. Also on the daily chart, look at the MACD indicator trying to get a bullish cross on the way up.
Then we come over, look at the 30-inut time frame. Yesterday, we had that be as a bullish shape profile. I said break value high. I expect the upper third of the range. Well, the same thing can be said to the downside with a PS and Paul shaped profile. We start getting below value area low at 606.19.
Then I expect the market to come back down towards the lower third of the range. Probably trying to work its way back down towards 601 to the 600 strike price. Smack the indicator does look a little bit weaker on the 30-inut chart than what we just looked at with the S&P 500. Now, we come over and look at the 4our chart for the ENQ.
Notice we've had this push down. Is this just kind of a bare flagish looking pattern on the way down that's taking its sweet time to play out? Now, some other key levels I want to watch is going to be this untested point of control 25,362 and a quarter. And if we can break above this swing point right over here, we have the potential for an A to B equals CD pattern.
If I were to go ahead and draw that out, that gives us a price completion very close towards that untested point of control. So, it's going to be critical if we start clearing this level. This is going to be the next area of interest I'm looking for for potential targets with the NASDAQ. Now, when we come look at the daily profiles on the 30-inut chart, notice we had that push up today.
We had that consolidation. If you guys join me on the live stream, I had a massive, massive day for my personal self. But notice what we have going on. One of the key levels I want to watch out for regardless if you're looking to be a buyer or a seller in the market. If you're looking to be a seller, this minus development area could act as a target location.
If you're looking to be a buyer, expect that when the market gets down towards this area, we want to look to see does the market consolidate? Do we start to get a rejection right back out of this area? To me, that's going to be a very logical point to watch out for. Now, that level is going to be anywhere from 24,966 to about 24,956.
Also, if I were to pull a Fibonacci retracement, swing low right up here to the swing high, notice what we have right below this area, the 38% retracement, then if we break below that, not only do I want to target this 50% level because it's a Fibonacci retracement level, but also it's a structure breakout point, which the market has not come back and tested.
If I were to remove the drawing objects and just look at this as a basic structure play, I would probably have it marked off something like this. Anywhere from a price point of 876 up here to 9001. So keep those areas marked off on your chart. But I do think at some point tonight or tomorrow, we will have interactions with that minus development area.
Now, if we get above value area high at 25,78.50, 50. That's where I really want to turn my attentions back over here to the 4hour chart and see, can I look for trading opportunities up towards the target location at the ABC pattern completion and that untested point of control that we have right above us.
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