저자: RayDalio—영상진행자PremierStudy&Investing,출연자소속미상 · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오의 버블 지표 기준 미국 주식시장 전체는 '버블 아님~다소 과열' 수준이며, 신흥 기술주 일부만 극단적 버블 구간이다. 달리오의 버블 판단 기준은 6가지(전통 지표 대비 가격 수준, 비지속적 조건 반영 여부, 신규 매수자 유입, 강세 심리 확산, 레버리지 조달 매수, 선매수·선계약 등 미래 구매 과열)이다. 각 지표를 종합해 개별 종목·지수·시장 전체 단위로 게이지를 산출한다. 미국 전체 시장은 6개 지표 중 3개가 버블 또는 다소 과열, 나머지는 버블 아님 또는 다소 과열 수준으로 평가됐다. 종합 버블 게이지는 약 77 백분위로, 2000년 닷컴 버블과 1929년 버블에서 기록한 100 백분위에는 못 미친다. 신흥 기술 분야는 극단적 버블로 분류된 종목이 많은 반면, 일부 종목은 버블이 아니다. 상위 1000개 기업 중 버블로 표시된 비율은 약 5%로 2000년 정점(약 10% 이상)의 절반 수준이며, S&P500 기준으로는 약 3%다. 버블 종목 바스켓의 2020년 이후 수익률은 상위 500개 기업 대비 뚜렷하게 높게 나타났다. 시장 행태는 1970년대 초 Nifty 50, 2000년 닷컴 버블 종목, 1920년대 후반 버블 종목과 유사하다고 설명했다. 진행자는 제이미 그랜섬, 더블라인(Jeff Gundlach 계열), 제임스 비앙코 등 다른 투자자들이 가치주와 신흥국 시장을 선호한다고 언급했다. 단, 신흥 기술주는 피하라는 의견이 함께 소개됐다. 달리오 본인이 특정 1~3개월 가격 방향을 예측한 발언은 없고, 버블 지표 평가만 제시했다.
다듬은 글
all right hey my friends welcome back to premier state investing great to have you well today um stocks have been a little bit off have they not so i thought it would be an appropriate time since i saw this coming from ray dalio are we in the stock market bubble yes quite simply we've seen him of course a lot on youtube and different media outlets talking about his research that they just call in principled perspectives sometimes just it looks like principles here um but we know that he's gone back 500 years he's talked about a lot of different debt cycles different market cycles we've also heard ray talk about the dollar being the global reserve currency and that that could change that it has changed in the past and it will certainly change at some point in the future well i just thought i'd dive into this he is on linkedin if you're not on linkedin but i want to draw your attention this is very recent this is february 22nd today is the 23rd so this is less than 24 hours old here's what he has to say and he's going to give us a little table a little indicator telling us what he thinks about the current situation bubble or not i've seen a lot of bubbles in my time he says as i've studied even more in history so i know what i mean by a bubble and i systematize it into a bubble indicator that i monitor to help give me perspective on each market we now use it to look at most markets we are in i want to show you how it works and what it is now showing for u.s stocks what i mean by a bubble is an unsustainably high price and how i measure it is with the following six measures measure one how high are prices relative to traditional measures two are prices discounting unsustainable conditions number three how many new buyers i.e those who weren't previously in the market have entered the market number four how broadly bullish is sentiment number five are purchases being financed by high leverage and number six have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases for example built inventory or contracted forward purchases etc to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains it says each of these six influences measured using a number of stats that are combined into gauges in the stock market we do it for each stock that we are looking at these gauges are combined into aggregate indices by security and then for the market as a whole the table below shows the current reading of each of these gauges for use equity market as a whole and the chart below it shows the aggregate reading derived by combining these gauges into one reading for the stock market going back to 1910 it shows how the conditions stack up today for us equities in relation to past times so here's the six that we just read where do you guys want to start you want to start let's start in the roaring 20s bubble all the way across except for the bottom one so i'm gonna have to move this around a little bit just so we can read it so there's frothy which i guess is less than bubble dot com bubble bubble all the way 2007 it said no bubble for prices that were high relative to traditional measures and neither were they predicting bubble four prices are discounting unsustainable conditions anyways they give us today for the total market and they also do something for the emerging tech market so this is interesting three bubbles out of six two frothys and a somewhat frothy for emerging tech i think this is interesting if you saw some of the double line did a three-part series with dimartino booth also james bianco um oh and that guy um he's like the bond king i i'm not remembering his name um but anyway they're all suggesting getting into value and emerging we also saw that coming out of the article that we just did from from jeremy grantham so he also thought value and emerging were good things but maybe stay away from emerging tech anyways the total market you can see somewhat frothy no bubble on the second point let's see if i can move this over just yes so for the first point somewhat frothy second point no bubble third fourth frothy fifth somewhat frothy and six no bubble so he goes on he says in brief the aggregate bubble he says in brief the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the u.s stock market overall in the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had the 100 percentile read so that's kind of where they they based everything off those really bad crashes and so he says worth the 77th percentile about here about here so we've seen a lot of thumbnails we've seen all kinds of people say we're getting ready to redo the year 2000.
well ray says not exactly and so that might be something interesting in comparison to other writers other thinkers other investment managers that are out there a lot of people respect ray and this hedge fund is really based on macroeconomic approaches so you can read more about them their bridgewater associates he is the founder and he's now like a co-investment chief and what else we have here there's a very big divergence in the reading across stocks some stocks are by these measures and extreme bubbles particularly emerging technology companies while some stocks are not in bubbles the chart below shows the share of u.s companies that the measure indicate being in a bubble this is about five percent of the top 1000 companies in the united states which is about half of what we saw at the peak of the tech bubble he's referring to 2 000.
so the number is smaller for the s p 500 as several of the most bubbly companies are not part of that index so here we have the top 1 000 companies here we have the s p 500 this will give us what is the aggregate size of mobile companies remains about half of the tech bubble so that's a comment we'll see the same percentage here 0 to 12 and the top 1 000 companies look like they're 11.5 percent in 2000 today they're at about what we'll call this five percent if we are investing just in the s p 500 he says that gets rid of some of those bubbly companies in 2000 it was about what is that a little bit over 10 and now we're at about three percent so these graphs tell us that we're in a very different environment which is helpful to know if we have other things to do besides compile data economic data over the last 20 years yeah many of us have other jobs and stuff so uh we took stocks that are in the bubbles and create a basket of quote unquote bubble stocks to keep a close eye on them the chart below shows their performance in the performance of our basket of the top 500 companies the market action is reminiscent of the nifty 50 in the early 1970s and the dot-com bubble stocks in the late 1990s both of which i remember well it scores similarly to the bubble stocks of the late 1920s which i can't remember because i wasn't alive then so what we have is the returns since the start of 2020.
this is the top 500 in blue and the bubble companies in red so the top 500 i've had i don't know what is this 23 return i suppose while these bubbly companies 350 so something to think about he says well i don't show you exactly how this indicator is constructed because that's proprietary i'd like you to learn more you can see some of the sub readings in some of the indicators here if you click on the link so if we click on this link it takes us over to bridgewater.com they tell us before we go in that the content constitutes the proprietary intellectual property bridgewater or its licensors and that i will not directly or indirectly copy modify recast create derivative works post publish display redistribute disclose or make available to content and whole apart to any third parties or assist others to do the same or likewise make any commercial use of the content without the prior consensus of bridgewater well this is as far as i go but you're only one click away from seeing the sector by sector breakdown so you can go to bridgewater it looks like it's under research and insights and then you're looking for ray dalio stock market bubble i'll leave the link in the description thanks so much for stopping by the best everyone out there you
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