원문 보기
it does um it certainly reaffirms the point that we we do talk about a lot when it comes to sort of overall investing is that the short-term gain doesn't necessarily always reflect what the long-term outcome is you know likely to be um and so yeah well you might see these the volatility and the prices spike for a whole bunch of assets short term something like that you can't help but think it that that trend is towards those lower uh lower lower costs lower prices welcome to the exponential investor podcast want to be a better smarter more clued up investor well you've come to the right place we cover the breakthrough investment ideas you don't hear about in the mainstream to keep you on top of the mega trends and opportunities reshaping our world good morning welcome to another exponential investor podcast i am your editor sam volcker and i'm here with my co-editor again as usual kit winder uh thanks for joining us kit um i wanted to kick this off today um with the question actually and i'll give it some context um i mean i i start every one of these with a question usually but let me start it with another question uh so this week um the billionaire ceo of jp morgan uh jamie dimon had some critical things to say about bitcoin more specifically he was talking at um some banking event and questioned the uh ability for bitcoin to actually only ever have 21 million bitcoin exist and he asked the question you know how do we know that that's actually going to happen do you read the algorithms um and and and basically said that that he and a lot of people that jp morgan are skeptical of these these sorts of things now um i find what he said astonishingly ignorant because yes we do read the algorithms when it comes to bitcoin because we can read the code because it's open source um but that's actually that's my question isn't necessarily related to that now you're obviously heavily involved in energy markets uh you know the the the technology and the breakthroughs that are coming in that space my question is this how much weight do we give to people like diamond and others that sit in these ivory towers from a system that has served them very well that they are clearly interested in protecting for their own self-interests um why why does why does everyone seem to give weight to these people when it comes to breakthrough and new ideas and technologies um like like cryptocurrency and bitcoin and light green energy markets i imagine there are a plethora of similar instances from people from big oil that have said similar things about the energy transition how much should investors actually care about what these kinds of people have to say yeah i mean it's a very good point i'd say in their the energy markets it's almost it's it's more clear the sort of difference between the incumbency and the group thinking so i just read jeremy leggett's book winning the carbon war which is a sort of two-year diary running up to paris 2015 and it's brilliant actually it's a sort of first person account and he's so high level that he's meeting all of the most relevant um senior people who are involved in governments and corporates and um one of the things he talks about a lot is the sort of behavioral communal thinking within social groups and how this sort of leads people within oil companies you know as he says it they love their families and their children and you know they're good people they recycle but and they kind of know that the energy transition is happening but then they go to work and keep doing what they're doing and they sort of there's this dissonance there and within the oil industry it just sort of creates its own belief system that is actually incredibly hard to break um and so that is now just very clear i mean anyone who is aggressively defending fossil fuel growth for the next decade or two is either being paid or they've misunderstood um or or whatever so that's you can sort of almost pick out the or i'm quite cynical now about fossil fuel defenders really about you know when the texas energy crisis happened you looked at all of the things that sort of oil lobby oil lobbied republican politicians were tweeting and saying and it was just they just get 800 grand a year from fossil fuel lobby groups and that's all it is you know yeah i i suspect that um like you say there's there's there's lobby groups and paid uh uh people that that are there to defend the the point you you raised um before is actually something that um that i came across recently as well is where you say um you know people that might work for some of these companies uh like you said they go home they recycle they put maybe have an electric car um you know they're doing the way they behave as to where they generate their income from are sometimes divergent um with which is which is you know something that you know everybody i guess has to live with at some point when sometimes you have these internal conflicts it's a very similar thing i heard um last week so last thursday uh and and friday uh i was at a conference in london the token 2049 conference and uh it was all about crypto cryptocurrencies the crypto economy um everything from like regulation to uh gaming uh blockchains privacy um exchanges decentralization of everything you name it and um and one of the things that i found interesting was that they were talking a lot about the institutionalization of of cryptocurrency and that you know you get these big organizations that are still quite reluctant to even just look at let alone hold something like bitcoin and um this the what they were saying was that now we're starting to see uh starting to just see things like pension funds start to sort of dip their toe into the game but the interesting thing was is that a lot of people that work for these sorts of funds in their own personal existence are already well into this they're already holding bitcoin and they're already diving deeper into the broader crypto ecosystem but when you look at these giant organizations and the structures that they exist under it's not always such a simple thing to sort of adjust the course of the ship um and and i i very much expect that what you you probably see something similar is that when you are dealing in energy markets and you look at the big players like shell and bp and we know they they sort of have a very large foot in the the existing camp but they also do have a foot in the transition itself as well do you do you see those big companies do you see them righting the ship do you think that like for instance do you see a company like bp in the future not having any oil and gas assets at all i think it's i think it is possible i think the um the economics are are so clear now for the fossil fuel industry that demand is going to fall off over the next 30 years it has to um it's going to be socially demanded and politically mandated and economically viable to move to cheaper alternatives so when our vehicles are powered by electricity electricity from renewables will massively undercut the sort of gas and coal-fired alternatives and then that's how electricity starts competing with oil you know on the roads for example and um and so if you look at bp's balance sheet they say they have you know x amount of reserves of oil and they're going to sell it for this much they predict and so they value their company at why but in reality i mean carbon tracker is really the company that that pioneered the concept of stranded assets which is that almost all of these fossil fuel companies think that they have x amount of value locked up underground but they won't be able to sell it um and maybe they'll you know they'll be 20 or 40 stranded assets which makes them so much less valuable um and as all oil demand falls who's going to be able to sell oil is probably the question who's going to be able to ride out the the fall in demand and it's pretty simply the lowest cost producer which is to be honest saudi arabia they can pull oil out of the ground for less than ten dollars a barrel so if oil prices you know oil prices will trend towards that figure and once demand has peaked volatility increases so what we're seeing at the moment is oil price volatility it's like a fish that's come out of the water it's dying but it started flapping and you know volatility increases as death arrives and for these things we saw it with coal you know even more dramatically global coal demand peaked in 2013 and now it's spiking and everyone's like oh maybe this is a whole new thing for coal it's not it's just you know when your asset hasn't been growing in eight years you don't invest properly in supply chains and distribution chains and you know demand and supply get mismatched more easily um we'll start seeing similar things with oil i think so i think on this podcast one time before i said we could see 300 oil but the the grand trend over the next 30 years is towards probably between 10 and 20 because a that's the only way it can be in any way competitive with renewables and b um it'll be the lowest cost producers who are selling and undercutting everyone else when you know i mean the ia predicted demand will fall from 96 million barrels per day last year to 25 or 24 i think they said so a quarter of what it is today and yeah the cheapest producer will do the selling it does um it certainly reaffirms the point that we we do talk about a lot when it comes to sort of overall investing is that the short-term gain doesn't necessarily always reflect what the long-term outcome is you know likely to be um and so yeah well you might see these the volatility and the prices spike for a whole bunch of assets short-term something like that you can't help but think it that that trend is towards those lower uh lower lower costs lower prices um which is yeah it's it's fascinating and i mean if you want to if we want to talk about volatility then um obviously you know the crypto markets are something that i've been looking at closely uh for some time and and that certainly has its uh has its moments of ups and downs and it's almost like the inverse of oil is that some of the short-term fluctuations down don't necessarily reflect that the the long-term view that uh when you a factor in demand and supply uh you know demand increasing supply constraints um which if mr diamond bothered to what supply constraints sam how do you know if mr diamond bothered to read the algorithms as we all do you would know that they're they're you know defined supplies well i do i i have to say i i sympathize with him only on one point that it's not bothering to read the algorithms it's a capability issue not not a not an effort issue um he's not lazily thinking uh maybe i should get around to the algorithms like me he's thinking you know what what what am i looking at here um but i think your point earlier was interesting i mean bill if you ever see a headline that says bill gates backed clean energy venture you'll probably see the ess a battery company launched this week and i think it went up 125 on its second day of trading or something crazy it just spiked and here's a classic example of a name that carries undue weight i mean within the energy transition sort of space i've done three series of the beyond all interviews i've met incredible unbelievably brilliant people who have such an uh a brilliant understanding of how these things are playing out and i don't think he matches up against those people in this space he clearly is so brilliant and i think it's just that slight nasim talib point of expertise in one field does not guarantee it in another and he has good ideas but he talks about a thing called the green premium where you know it's going to be so expensive to do a transition so how can we narrow that green premium to make it as cheap as possible but i think the more interesting ideas are how uh you know disruptions in energy food and transport are all going to compound one another to make actually the transition just cheaper than what came before that the new system is going to save us money rather than costing us money um and i think he's actually sort of behind on that and he doesn't he's not always backing the companies that we think are the best companies so it's he's you know he's good but he's not the best but his name gets put on things and they go up and and he brings so he brings a great amount of money through his uh venture investment vehicles as well and so i think that i think that's where people get sometimes get confused is that sometimes these decisions and the ultimate investment vehicle isn't necessarily those who you might think it is and and like you say expertise in one area uh you know i'm sure mr diamond is an expertise in complex financial products uh that nobody understands or bothers to read the terms and conditions for so you know i'm sure he's an expert in his field can anyone read the terms and conditions sam do we read the terms and conditions maybe no we don't um which is why some of those complex financial products we maybe you know should avoid but the thing is is that something like bitcoin is 100 transparent uh and that's that's uh that's something that our readers may have seen a bit of this week coming out of exponential investor and from myself uh some some talk about uh an upgrade that's coming to bitcoin's core network which anybody can go and see i might add you can if you if you're technically minded and want to look at the code then feel free to do so and you may see or may have already seen a a webinar a broadcast from myself and my colleague and friend boaz shoshan talking about this great upgrade to bitcoin's network and what it's going to do not just for bitcoin but for the wider crypto ecosystem so i think that's something that um if you haven't seen that yet um i'm sure we'll have a link uh somewhere on around near this video that you'll be able to click on as usual uh to check out that broadcast um the thing about the thing about it that that is is very exciting is that it's an absolute certainty it's locked in i think we're only about a month away from it activating uh and it could unlock a tremendous amount of wealth in the crypto ecosystem so make sure you check out that video where we discuss about bitcoin's little next great upgrade and the wealth that it could unlock for investors but uh uh i think we've probably gone on for long enough this week kit uh like i say great to get your insight as as usual um i think a good takeaway here for investors is that when you see these big names these billionaires these titans of industry talking about things uh you might want to check that they actually know what they're talking about before you place any great weight on their comments and if you find that they don't know what they're talking about which can sometimes be the case um you know take what they say with a very small pinch of salt or a big picture what is it is it a large pinch of salt i can't whatever take it with a pinch of salt uh any closing remarks you'd like to drop in as we wind up this weight kit yeah well i think just you know it was an interesting point you made about diamond i'd say i think the reason it gets so much attention um is probably not that everyone thinks that what he says is necessarily right but what he says does matter i mean he's one of the most successful banking ceos of the last decade he has done a brilliant job with jp morgan so like he is so powerful that his his views might affect the market in future so it pay it you know it still pays to think about what he's saying because it might affect how jp morgan goes about the crypto or whatever but it doesn't mean he's right as you say um and yeah on the on the webinar that you mentioned there you know as as regular listeners will know i'm not the crypto expert of the two of us but i am interested and i am an investor and i have watched it and i have read up around the the upgrades that you're talking about and the things that they're going to do and i you know can genuinely say quite honestly that it's about as excited as i've been about crypto in in over a year or two or maybe even in my whole short interest span or life um it really is yeah it's it's fascinating it's exciting um and i do encourage people to go and watch it because you know then you won't make silly mistakes like jamie exactly then you'll know you'll know more than mr diamond and probably you know a lot of statistics are made up and i'm going to make one up here but you'll probably know more than 90 of the traditional financial uh industry around cryptocurrency as well so it pays to to know what is happening uh it pays to know what it means and it can certainly put you ahead of the average banker so to speak so thanks again uh kit for joining me thanks again everyone for watching for listening however you are consuming this media through your ears or eyes and or both um we'll be back with you again next week for another exponential investor podcast bye for now
Comments 0