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hello ladies and gentlemen and welcome back well we mentioned in previous videos this is the calm before the storm where the biggest markets in the world enter into a zone that is pivotal of course we have previous resistance and previous structure points that are holding this market up and it's meant that other markets starting to move we've got the oil market really getting out of control again and moving back up and we also have student debt forgiveness how's that going to end i'm sure everything's fine don't worry stay tuned guys we've got a great video today to go through the jackson hole symposium everything to do with indices the lead indicators right now and of course a special indicator that has generally led to further recessionary kind of periods in the u.s there's a lot going on these markets but we'll navigate them together see you soo we'll get started with some big news stories and macro then we'll get into the charts and we've got some great levels today to be discussing so of course the student debt forgiveness order will this trigger more inflation in 2023 well i think it's a bit reckless frankly this is not the time to be printing money and doing student forgiveness we have inflation numbers above nine percent this is historically very shocking and worrying and the world economy is suffering from this fifty percent of that inflation is caused by demand what do you think is going to happen if you forgive debt people feel a little bit richer they go and buy things it just seems absolutely ridiculous what do you guys think in the comments down below what about the jackson hole symposium well we all know it's coming up of course here we've got some ubs analysts predictions i think they're much in line with what i kind of am feeling and it's very hard to predict these things we obviously have inflation still incredibly high we have a labor market that's a very very tight at this stage and look in general this will probably mean that the fed really moves towards a 50 to 75 basis point hike moving forward and they'll reaffirm that they're going to have the inflation fighting resolve with probably little fresh insights yeah it's boring yeah i know that doesn't really help us very much but one thing i did want to mention is i tend to agree with this number i doubt the fed or anyone will push that much higher than four percent if you look at the forward rate yields this is the ones that go into the future of 2023 not many of them have ever gone over that level and that's important because when we discuss this chart here in general the fed has had to to beat inflation has had to push interest rates above the inflation number whenever inflation's gone over five and a half percent the only way to beat it down has always been to push interest rates above that level now of course at eight and a half percent we'd have to push rates to above eight and a half do you think that's going to happen none of us do this is the first time in history that inflation may be beaten without pushing it above that number but still very interesting to note that it's never happened before and with printing money for loan reductions that's probably not a great idea speaking of issues in the economy here we have monthly supply of new houses in the united states whenever that number's gone above nine it's generally triggered a recession and of course we've seen that number go above nine recently showing the real slow down in the housing market i'm not too concerned about housing yes i believe it will drop in australia alone 10 15 percent more probably before all said and done but you've got to remember is that system recklessly debted that's something you always have to ask yourself how loose was the lending into it in general better than it was back in the gfc 2006 2007.
used vehicle wholesale prices they have also started to decrease which is again the demand side uh i still don't know why you touch the chart i'm getting on this student loan debt thing but i just don't know why you touch it things are looking better but again you're starting to say well are we just going to wreck that concept of course during midterm election years we usually see pullbacks around this period we've kind of started it at around the same point remember in the us for anyone that's overseas people are generally away on holidays up until kind of the end of august we're about to see that point part of the reason why september seems to fall in october is due to this phenomenon around that 15th of august to pretty much the 15th of october we generally see the market having a shaky period of time that's just statistically data driven kind of numbers then we usually see a pullback that happens or a nice pickup you can see the total normal years and what happens usually sometimes into november and then midterm years which go into that kind of start to mid of october will it be the same again of course something to be considering what's happened here on the markets over the last couple of days though let's have a look here at the last 24 hours so the market kind of rallied in the morning session fell a little bit and ended up slightly positive we have had a positive tinge here on the short term with a negative tinge on the slightly medium term like a week out on this channel recently and that's because when it fell down which we were you know definitely covering of course we saw it hit that level of structure we saw in today's video this has meant that markets are starting to pick up a little bit of the more growthy assets again pbw clean energy and tan at the solar energy we're doing standout numbers on the last 24 hours of trade 4.63 etc things like staples which is usually a defensive sector utilities and healthcare they were up but they weren't up by much semiconductors were the worst on the day led by of course some of those usual suspects this is the normal concept we're thinking of right now we obviously hit peaks in all of these cases to do with the correlation of previous times we've generally dipped back to the lows or close to the lows or made new lows so in all of the strongest correlations to previous historical times the market usually has come back more you have to expect it at this stage it just seems like the most logical conclusion to go with so before we jump into the charts i'd like to thank today's sponsor of the video which is tiger brokers of course we have here tesla up and i always like to think about brokers as are they improving their platform the good thing is tiger always are improving if we look over here we've got quotes analysis financials filing news everything and you'll also see a little bit more well we're all analysts here we prefer to find out more information about the stocks and of course instruments that we want to trade if we click on the more it loads these boxes guess what if you want to see daily short volume you can get it here if you want to see open short volume you can get it here you can get filings you can get valuations you can get the fundamentals of a company all these great charts they're constantly taking feedback and yes i offer them feedback sometimes from members of the community so if you ever have any just let me know they're always open to it and i think that's one of the things that really defines a great company so if you're interested in finding out more about the special offers that tiger brokers has for members of the community check out the links in the description down below and of course then you can get more information on your charts the vix dropped as we suspected in the previous video we've been talking about vix quite a lot this year 20 is the key level to be watching and also you want to watch 35 in the future as well a fear level is usually 35 a very high fear level of course above that's usually a very quick spike and 20 is considered where bear markets turn into bull markets etc we held that zone we've ramped up recently and now the calm before the storm of course jackson hole and especially jerome powell's breakfast speech that we'll be seeing here on the friday in the u.s markets move over to the us two year the us two year is poised to potentially break a new high this is what happens markets come to critical zones ahead of critical news then they uh gain liquidity during those events to move to the next level it kind of enables a movement we're at resistance three point almost four percent on the two year will we break high or will we break low we don't know yet we'll have to find out what the fed says but based on what we're seeing in the markets it seems to be the markets are kind of pointing towards the potential of the us dollar going down and maybe a little bit less hawkish than maybe the market starting to price in let's have a look at this dollar index we reported the previous session that we thought the market would come up and then fall back down it certainly did so it got past the 61.8 fib but it went up to the 78.6 kind of area of course if you were shorting in this area congrats to you um so far so good on this trade and you know there's even potential for much lower levels back into the structure down here of that 107.
where's the stop losses above these levels is probably the safer point at this stage but dollar index still looks weak here and it's the right set up at the right kind of time with of course the white right types of rejections jackson hole symposium will change it but it moves into things like the us dollar yen another one that we've been pricing up similar kind of strategy similar pricing a dulling market a slobbing market it breaks to the low it pulls back strategically that 61.8 to 786 area and then we've seen some shorting off that zone anyone in our private community which you can always join seven day free trial in the links down below you'll be able to of course see some of these things this is one we discussed in the previous session another one we've been talking about for a few days is actually the bullish notion of oil that is oil looked incredibly strong this is a spring coming off the lows a very strong looking pattern and now we've seen two very strong nice bullish days will we continue to move up we would think at this stage it could be a little bit of a pullback into a move up so you could be looking for those types of things but it's the difference between brent and us oil so if you go to uk oil and you look up brent you'll notice brent broke through pretty strongly often brent will lead u.s oil and at this stage it is leading where's the target a lot of people have set around 108 for brent makes sense good level obviously at this stage it does look like the oil trade is currently bullish at this point we'll find out whether it can keep holding but does look pretty strong with a weak us dollar does this mean gold will rally up further well it does seem that way gold has formed on the 61.8 retrace of this move and it started to go bullish i've obviously got longer term aspirations of getting it down to this level we'll find out whether that does happen but i am bullish on gold over the medium term next one two three months and we're kind of looking towards gold towards this 1772 zone if you're watching in the car hello to you i know a few people have said tom you've got to read out these numbers when you're mentioning numbers 1772 there's a key level of previous supports and of course resistances when it came up and a 61.8 fib of this pool and of course if we took the whole pool that would be slightly behind it so of the last move this is a pretty important area i think for gold there's a lot of correlations with this zone so be careful in here we'd be looking for turnaround opportunities at that point and we'll come back to gold when that occurs does that mean buy it right now i don't really think there's a statistical strong chance on it either way at this point tesla in the middle of absolutely nowhere i wish we could report better than that but frankly it's filled both gaps which was the plan so we wanted to fill this gap it's come back to this zone and it's sitting right in the middle of a trapped range between 950 and 840 well what can you do in this situation i mean you can put in something like a fixed kind of let's call it volume profile you'll notice it came up and tapped that level nothing really new there pretty good take profit in the previous session should you have done it and it certainly weakened quite a lot into the day it actually rallied all the way that nine elevenish zone if you got that well done other than that though tesla sits in the middle of the zone let's move over to apple what's apple doing well this one's a little bit more interesting go here to the one hour check this out we've got a tweezer bottom now the tweezer bottom didn't quite fill the gap that we mentioned on the previous video but it did come off the market's kind of looking like it wants to base and move back up remember it moved down aggressively and in many ways it didn't move down with the volume that a lot of people would have expected when you get these kind of bearish moves you usually expect a lot of volume to come in that didn't quite happen in this situation something that we'll be focused in on high yield bonds slight recovery here considering yields are going up as well that's surprising so again high yield bonds showing that maybe there's a little turnaround in this market the dax german market level of support obviously want to break past some key zones here probably want to clear something like a 13 300 for it to show bullish intentions next level probably moves towards something like a 13-6 let's have a look at the u.s market see if that finds something for us again nasdaq stopped at the exact point we thought it would 12 800 key level previous hits 13 000 high will we break out time is going to tell if we do break out what's going to happen most likely we move towards those 13 300s after that point of course the real potential of a sell-off comes in but these are the key things you want to be looking at as a trader do you care about this price you want to get that price but this is the easy money these levels are the hard tough trades or the more kind of tight compressed trades where you're buying and selling the ranges different strategies different zones these are very quick markets the market likes to come back and usually allow itself to get a lot of the fair prices i mean you can see there's gaps even here on the futures market left let alone the real market if you look at the queues speaking of the real market we'll go over to the s p 500 probably the most important one to be watching right now guys check this out all of us we always focus on this market and you'll notice we just have so much structure through this zone we've got pullbacks of the fib into this area we've got so many key levels around here and we'll use the futures market to show it up remember always price in your gaps here so you've got those sitting on your charts something like this would be a good idea you'll notice here i've got the whites as the gap so these are all the gaps that are unfilled that are left by the market so we actually went straight underneath this zone this little area here that we mentioned previously this is that 41 kind of 13 area we swung it during the european session so that basically means we came underneath we took the stop losses that could have been here effectively liquidity grab as many people know it as and then we move towards that bullish kind of side now we fight with the 4162 level 4162 i posted this on our twitter at fxevolution if you're interested in following this zone is very important because of course we're going to have potential sellers here and potential buyers here jackson hole symposium will most likely get us out of this range it could go bullish earlier than that though so i'm watching for bullish kind of intentions here on this market at this stage movement up potential pullback after that point somewhere in here maybe around that price of i let's say 4130 4135 we'd have to do some more analysis on it at that time and then ideally move up to fill some of the inefficiencies the gaps that sit up here at 42.26 and potentially even go as high as 42.60 which will be a very key pivotal area there'll be a 61.8 fib of the entire pull down i'll show you guys here so if you grab that entire pull you'll notice here you get that 61.8 fib just around this area and this is going to be a very very important zone should it happen so if we get the market bullish up into here then you're looking for that turnaround story and we'll of course be following along with you guys in the future on that not much to report on options for this week obviously we've got tons sitting at 4 30 those calls are unlikely to make any money too bad so sad for them unfortunately hopefully you're not one of the ones that has these uh these calls and then we've got 410 on the puts at this stage being the two biggest options levels max payne doesn't matter as much in these non third week expire expirations but certainly worthwhile noting bitcoin what's going on there again fairly solid here on the current market structure we did see something interesting though it took the highs here so on bitcoin unless it really needs to make a new peak pretty soon because when you're looking at this on the surface could that be that false break and movement down i'm gonna watch and set alerts at twenty thousand eight hundred because if that then goes underneath this level and holds the close look out down below nineteen thousand or even twenty um those levels very likely to get hit of course at this stage this could all be what we call distribution a little bit of a kind of movement up you take out the lows and then boom goes the dynamite all the way back down be careful of that guys this is a very pivotal chart that we'll be watching interested in crypto certainly at this stage if you haven't already follow us at fx evolution of course remember the jackson hole symposium is about to start prelim gdp 8 30 a.m thursday august 25th then on the friday we have the core pc price index and fed chair pal speaking at 10 am breakfast with pal we'll find out what he has to say or maybe morning tea with powell this is going to be a very important session as always guys if you're interested in tiger brokers special offers remember click the links in the description down below they've got a whole bunch of special offers for different community members around the world obviously subscribe smash that like button we'll see you in the next video guys i'm super excited to see what happens next bye for now
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