저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
중국 경기 회복 조짐(항공·소비 회복, 재정 부양)과 빅테크 규제 완화(앤트그룹 자본조달 승인)를 근거로 중국 주식의 저평가 매력을 주장. 다만 부동산·지방정부 부채, 청년실업, 미국 회계감사(PCAOB) 상장폐지 리스크, 중국 정부의 황금주 통제를 큰 위험으로 제시하며 신중한 태도를 보임.
다듬은 글
The following graph shows the current status of the economic cycle released by Fidelity S&P, the largest investment management firm. There is one country currently reversing its downward trend: China. In fact, various indicators corroborate that the economy is recovering. First, domestic and international flights in China are recovering rapidly, and the reopening is in full swing.
Consequently, consumption is increasing as well. Retail sales and the economic activity index also appear to have turned upward again. With the upcoming Lunar New Year and the massive migration of people, if the coronavirus spreads further and leads to complete herd immunity, consumption will be sufficiently boosted, and economic recovery seems possible once more.
Since China is currently far from inflationary, it is highly likely that they will use fiscal policies more aggressively. If you look at it, they are actually pouring massive subsidies into infrastructure and manufacturing investments. Furthermore, to save the crisis-ridden Chinese real estate sector, they even provided masks.
Honestly, from China's perspective, real estate, which accounts for the largest share of its GDP, must be a significant factor. Along with local government debt, debt has been piling up like a massive lump of bone for decades; if they burst it, a long-term recession is expected, but if they don't, future growth...
As momentum weakens and risks increase, we are approaching this quite cautiously. However, the atmosphere has been gradually changing since the end of last year. Ultimately, they will likely save it. China does not want a massive influx of capital into real estate. And while the real estate market is currently inflating a bubble and is being suppressed, China is showing policy changes to allow investment funds to move more freely—specifically through the Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Shanghai-Hong Kong network—rather than letting the bubble grow even larger.
China's proactive stance was clearly demonstrated at the Central Economic Work Conference. They shifted from using active fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies to expanding science and technology policies and boosting domestic demand. There is no need to earn any more. Following this meeting, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, including China's representative big tech company Alibaba, saw a massive rebound.
The index rose by 10% in a single day. It feels absolutely insane. It has already rebounded by more than 50% from its low point in the very short term. However, let's look at this time series from a broader perspective. The recent sharp rebound has only risen by a mere 10 cents. It is truly serious; it has hit the low point of the 2008 financial crisis.
At this level, it is more serious than the KOSPI. I am feeling once again that long-term investment in China is not really a good idea. Anyway, there was a reason why the Hong Kong Hang Seng Group collapsed like this. Yes, it was because they imposed massive regulatory requirements— regulations so severe they could span the entire market.
Alibaba founder Jack Ma said, "This Chinese economic policy is just like a pawnshop," and that caused a massive blow. They practically wiped him out to the point where he shouldn't even remember it. However, the atmosphere reversed starting from the end of last year. The Central Economic Free Meeting and the People's Bank of China's "Kongzi K" policy mentioned earlier are the contents of that.
They delivered a huge blow. They stated that supervision of Big Tech would return to normal levels and that they would support companies so they could play a greater role in job creation and strengthening global competitiveness. This represents a complete shift in stance. They hit hard, and thanks to that, China's youth unemployment rate hit an all-time high, so they are likely loosening the regulations again.
On top of this, as a culmination of these measures, they approved a capital raising plan for Ant Group. Wow, this really shows a significant change in attitude. Ant Group is a subsidiary of Alibaba, with an estimated market capitalization of a whopping $350 billion, while Alibaba's market cap is currently 300 billion.
Since it is only in dollars, it is actually higher. Ant Group's business model consists of mobile payment and lending systems. Currently, 93% of the Chinese market uses it, and along with the position of second-place Tencent, the company that has effectively monopolized China's payment market is Ant Group, which is essentially Alipay.
Although they conditionally approved Alipay and Ant Group, I think this is a decisive change that clearly indicates China's stance has completely shifted from the past. The reason Chinese stocks have a good outlook is not only due to deregulation, but also because many institutions predict that the Chinese economy will show a strong rebound in the first half of the year.
Regarding the QQ, the Chinese Academy of Sciences says it is 99% likely to list, but let's not overreact. Even if it isn't exactly 99%, looking at the Bloomberg consensus, it is currently exceeding 6%. In fact, Goldman Sachs and JP Fund have been pushing Chinese stocks continuously since last year. It is said that foreigners are actually buying up Chinese stocks in massive quantities.
That makes sense, because when looking at the forward PR of major Chinese platforms over the past 5 years and 12 months, they are all trading at tremendous historical lows. In the case of Alibaba, it is currently only in the mid-10s. Compared to Amazon, which has a business structure almost identical to ours and is currently trading at a PR of 100, you might think the valuation is incredibly cheap.
The same goes for Jindo, Tencent, and Baidu. The stock prices are indeed very low. In particular, it is true that IT stocks are highly likely to rebound as they were the sector that fell the most last year. Ultimately, the attractive points of Chinese stocks can be summarized as: first, low valuations; second, positive policy changes; and third, a rapid rebound in the Chinese economy.
For reference, to reiterate regarding the first point, low valuations, Alibaba's stock price has returned to its IPO price from 7 to 8 years ago. However, revenue has increased tens of times since then, and asset value has also risen by more than tens of times. In a way, it is indeed undervalued. Nevertheless, there are reasons why it is inevitably undervalued and why the Hong Kong Hang Seng stock price is in such a state.
The first reason is the still unstable Chinese economy. The possibility of a hard landing for the real estate market also seems quite high. Furthermore, local government debt here is truly massive; it looks like a game of " passing the bomb" is happening here as well. But we really don't know when this will explode.
In reality, the real estate market and consumer spending indices are still at rock bottom. And if you look at the unemployment rate on the right, it's truly alarming; it is currently rising to the 5% and 6% range. The government keeps saying that things will improve because they've injected money, but we don't know for sure.
We can't be certain about this. If a hard landing occurs instead of a rebound, there is a chance that things could be even more devastated. Second is the US accounting audit. This market surged starting in 2021. Representative Hong Kong companies listed in New York, such as Alibaba and Baidu—known as ADR stocks—were heavily targeted with suspicions that they might manipulate their books to boost their stock prices, just like the Luckin Coffee scandal.
But what was the Chinese government's reaction? Well, rather than helping their domestic companies, they just hit them even harder. Getting hit by the US hurts enough, but they just struck at the sore spots again. Instead of saying, "Go ahead and hit them," they were actually uncooperative with the US.
They claimed, "We can't give you this because personal information and national security are at stake." China was the one taking the lead in blocking them. However, starting from the second half of last year, they really started trying to completely wreck them. I do n't know if it's because their close associates heard about it after looking at the stocks, but they eventually decided to disclose their accounting books and various information.
The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PAAC) has launched an investigation into the companies in question. Judging by the news released so far, no major issues have been found yet. There are rumors that an announcement will be made within the year, but in any case, this is a risk that absolutely cannot be ignored.
If the U.S. government takes advantage of this and pressures them, a delisting is not an impossible scenario. Honestly, it is true that I have doubts about just how transparently Chinese companies have maintained their accounting records. Moreover, Chinese companies, unable to withstand the pressure from both the Chinese and U.S.
governments, have voluntarily delisted en masse. Not only the three major telecommunications companies—China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom—but also the Chinese petrochemical group Sinopec, PetroChina, and even Didi (the Chinese version of Uber), and recently, airlines like China Southern and China Eastern—a total of over 100 companies have packed up and left on their own accord.
It is as if they are saying, "If we are going to die anyway, we might as well die on our own." If you think about it carefully, will the U.S.-China conflict be resolved in the future? No. I believe the conflict will continue until one of the two countries collapses. However, between these two countries...
There are truly many companies that have fallen behind the "Kkineun-i shrimp" phenomenon. This applies not only to Chinese stocks but also to US stocks. You should assume that companies with significant exposure to China will continue to face considerable risk in the future. That is why companies like Apple are actively seeking ways to quickly exit the Chinese market.
Thirdly, the biggest risk lies with Xi Jinping and the Communist Party. First, there is the CPPCC, a state advisory body; they have excluded all Big Tech CEOs from its membership. Out of 13 companies, as many as six were previously included, but now only Zhou Hongyu, Chairman of the security firm Qiu 360, remains.
Furthermore, China has a unique concept called " Golden Shares." These Golden Shares are stocks that grant the right to exercise a veto over agenda items at general shareholder meetings, regardless of the quantity or percentage of shares held. Essentially, this means that even owning just a single share can exert a massive influence on management.
Yet, the Chinese government has taken these Golden Shares one by one—it is not like a simple wheel. Ultimately, this means they intend to put Big Tech under their feet. Therefore, while the deregulation of Big Tech appears superficial—it seems like they eased regulations to curb rising unemployment— they are still holding this leash.
I intend to shake things up— through what means, specifically through "golden stocks." Looking at it this way, the stock prices are really cheap, and I am optimistic about China's economic development, but do you feel that it carries enormous risks? I would be very grateful if you could leave your thoughts in the comments.
댓글 0