저자: RamdevAgrawal—소속자막상'FinancialServicesRamdev'로추정,제목명RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
2025 예산은 12lakh 비과세로 소비를 부양했고 자본지출은 전년 수준 반복이라 인프라 방향은 유지. 경기 회복의 핵심은 통화정책과 신용흐름(신용성장률 10%→15% 필요)이며 금리인하 여지는 제한적. 최근 급락은 단기 수급 요인이고 소비 관련 기업(디지털 소비)에 긍정적 방향. 이익 추정치는 FY25 약 1050, FY26 약 1200 수준으로 상향 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Chairman of Financial Services Ramdev Aggarwal is with us Ramdev Sir, good afternoon, the budget has made everyone happy, there is no tax up to Rs 12 lakh and it was given for consumption, it was not taken out from anyone else's pocket, normally what happens is that people take money from one place and give it to another, what is clear here, they have given a boost for consumption but not at the cost of any other sector, so that is a very good thing, there is only positive, there is not much of negative in this budget Sir, one thing which the market initially took a little negatively was the Capex number, that let's see the consumption, whatever I heard the commentary, for this year it is like P2, for 24, 242, I think that too will not be reached completely, so clearly you are spending Rs 1.25 lakh this year, so next year you are spending Rs 1.25 lakh, on top of that by taking an even higher number, that means you had to achieve growth on the last year's budget estimate, but obviously it has not happened because I think the execution quality is also An issue, I think it seems to me that for this year, you have repeated the capex budget of the last year in 2012, so if that is executed completely, then growth will start again.
So I don't think there is any change in their direction for infra build up and whatever capex is required where needed. The only change is that you were completely ignoring the consumer. In the first budget, the despicable industry had completely stagnated, you have perked it up a bit by giving this tax free up to 12 lakhs.
So because of that booster, the entire market was stagnant in favor of capex and a little tail wind came in favor of your consumer, so whatever is happening is what is visible in the market today. Sir, many of these things have been addressed in the last one week, I mean, see, RBI addressed the liquidity concern.
Today you addressed the consumer policy, sir, is there a possibility of a rate cut in the coming policy or is there a possibility of current inflation? At least it doesn't permit that right now, no, no, look at all that, monetary, fiscal, you will have to address everything in all ways, it wo n't be possible with just fiscal, monetary has a huge role, I would say 90% monetary role, if there is no credit flow in your economy, then no matter what you do, it's not going to go back, it's a no credit, no growth kind of thing, so until your credit is 14, 15, 16, I don't know what number it is, what should it be right now, it's around 10, until this credit flow level goes back, according to my understanding, I don't think that economic growth will pick up, well, economic growth will not pick up, so in the clear market, as you were saying that now there will be a shift in focus and consumption has happened, should we believe that a market can not only hit an all-time high but can also go further, or is it a bit hasty to think so far ahead, Anuj, what does RBI do, whatever is the mood, whatever the Prime Minister said, from what the Prime Minister said, one thing is clear from what I understand that Their developed India or the large growth objective is that they will push the economy to 7 or 7 or 1/2 kind of growth because if that growth does not come then there will be a lot of trouble in the sense that tax collection will not come or other problems will come, so clearly they, even at little cost, will push the growth.
Now, for that, I think, apart from fiscal, what is a lot on monetary, which will come from RBI in the next budget meeting, or the credit flow which has almost reduced in the economy, from 15 to 10, I think that will be understood in the next month or 15, which way the wind is blowing, if suppose the credit flow still remains at 9 or 10, then I do not think that the desired result will be very good and if by chance the credit growth reaches 15 or 17, then you will see how much color will come in the overall growth, good Ramat ji, today's top gainer is coming in hand, so there will be expenditure and There is also some very positive news for gig workers regarding the insurance scheme.
Is this the brutal correction that we saw in the stocks in the last few days, is it giving an opportunity for re-entry? Yes, see, what is the matter is that brother, stocks will keep moving for one day, meaning you can expect anything else on Monday, the color may be different, but as it is, today it is sentimental, the volume is also low, there will be some short covering as well.
I think in many stocks, due to that you can't read everything for one day, but directionally I think it looks that better times are ahead for consumer companies, particularly digital consumer companies. Well, Ramdev ji, now after this budget, some market adjustments will be seen, will there be any, there are still more events ahead, be it the RBI policy, what stance does Trump take in the future and most importantly, how will the earnings be in the future, but if we look at the earnings, then one major concern is urban demand, urban consumption, right now see the analyst.
I will use my brain and maybe tomorrow or day after tomorrow people will talk to the company, so right now there is a bit of a tense atmosphere, this quarter's result is also coming out bad, there is growth of 5-6, so I think by March 25, your earnings will be 1050 instead of 1000, which means for next year 25-26 the estimator of 1200 means 1050 to 1200 directly, for that which was fluctuating, I think now there is a chance of 1200, 1200 for 25526, so if it becomes 1200 then your bottom becomes 20p for next year, I feel like that, which is a very comfortable spot to be in, but whether it will be 1050 to 1200 or not, that means let's see a little what kind of mood the analysts create, as you always say, whatever number Gautam gives you, you automatically cut a little from it Yes and you had said one thing that this real recovery will start next year but this time for the first time you seem confident that those numbers will be strange, does it not mean next year, I feel that the monetary policy will follow the sentiment set by the budget, your monetary policy will follow the same sentiment in the next two-three weeks or fortnight, so keeping that in mind, I feel that there is a good chance that Gautam's original estimator will come and one last question, although we have talked about it to some extent, I was just looking at auto sales, this cycle will last for two-three years, right now Kanjan has been beaten for so long, now good days will come for them too, sir, thank you so much for joining us today and we will probably meet you again in some time, then we will understand you in a little more detail, thank you so much
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