저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 2020년 3월 시장은 바닥 확인 전이며, 헤지펀드 과도 레버리지 청산이 변동성을 키우고 있다. 의료·검사 측면: 클로로퀸·렘데시비르의 예방·치료 효과 근거가 쌓이고 있으나 미 CDC는 당시 공식 지침이 없었다고 지적. 항체 검사 확대: IgG·IgM 항체검사를 대량 시행하면 무증상 감염자와 면역 인구를 파악할 수 있어 경제 재개의 핵심이라고 주장. 한국은 조기 대규모 검사로 감염자 격리에 성공했다고 평가. 출연자 전망: 과반 감염 가능성에 대해 확률을 약 30%(3분의 1)로 제시하며 이 정도면 베팅할 가치가 있다고 봄. 기업 지배구조: 과거 CEO·이사회가 자사주 매입으로 주당순이익(EPS)을 부풀려 보상을 챙겼다고 비판. 위기 중 자사주 매입과 배당, 보너스 지급은 제한돼야 한다고 주장. 헤지펀드 레버리지: 프라임브로커를 통해 8~15배 이상 레버리지를 쓰는 펀드가 있어 변동성을 키운다고 지적. 리스크 패리티 펀드 청산도 언급. 정책 비판: 2008년 위기 때 은행은 구제됐으나 책임자는 처벌받지 않았고, 리스크가 장외로 옮겨갔을 뿐이라고 비판. 이번에도 정부 유동성 지원에는 대가(보너스·자사주 매입 제한 등)가 따라야 한다고 주장. 경제 영향: 과거 본인의 경험을 언급하며 위기 때 가장 큰 피해는 중산층이 받는다고 강조. 구제금융이 금융 부문의 과도한 위험추구를 낳는 것을 막아야 한다고 봄. 시장 전망: 다우 3만, 나스닥 1만 같은 지수 목표를 언급하며 지금은 바닥 확인 단계가 아니라 변동성 장세라는 인식.
다듬은 글
look at the market you you see what's what's going on um what do you see today in terms of whether you think we're close or at a a bottom and it's time to maybe put some money to work although i i hate to even pose the question that way because it's so uncertain no one knows what the true bottom is though you've had some names come on the air and say you've got to if you're in this for the long term yeah scott i wanted to come on today because i think there's there's there's a lot i wanted to sort of get off my chest but let me start with um what i think has been apparently obvious psychologically over the last few days and you've heard it from basically all of your guests either explicitly or implicitly which is that they have been so whipsawed that they are so coiled for a rally and everybody is talking the language of a rally and everybody i think wants to see a rally happen and whenever there's even an iota of even moderately good news the market reacts just because it has been so whipped around now if you take a step back let me give you a bowl case on what we're learning and i think we should start with the science because that's the most important thing three or four weeks ago there was emerging evidence on the value of chloroquine and rem deserver as treatments even prophylactically for coronavirus we saw that coming out of china it's largely now built up enough clinical validation where what happened today i think was very important up until today the cdc if you went to the website had literally zero guidance on the efficaciousness of these two drugs um either in treatment or prophylactically if you think you're getting symptoms and that's an important shift because it starts to change our posture away from the perfect towards the good and not letting perfect being the enemy of the good and this is something that we were saying for a while which is that if you relax some of these hyper strict standards that the cdc and fda had what it would allow doctors the possibility of doing and scientists the ability to do is to tell us in a projective way what could happen and allow folks to be more um aggressive in the types of protocols they use and get that information out broadly it should not be the case that you have to go to youtube for ventilators to learn you know for for anesthesiologists etc to describe how to string ventilators together that's not what should be happening we need government institutions to be at the tip of the spear here in making sure we understand what's happening so i think that was a good thing and i think that if we can get broad-based understanding of the value of these drugs in the hands of as many doctors and frankly the population at large as possible to know that there are remedies that work for an overwhelmingly large part of the population that should be very reassuring but then it shifts to what i think the next thing is we have to do you know there's this very famous churchill quote winston churchill what about the united states which is that you know the united states will do the right thing after it has tried everything else and this is where we need to prove that wrong we are still sort of you know in the queue of trying to ramp up our testing mechanisms if you have an acute onset of coronavirus so this is these you know pcr tests that we've heard a lot about but if you want to see a rally if people are indeed calling the bottom there is one thing and one thing only that we can do which is we need to have broad-based testing of antibodies so let me just explain this so everybody knows what's going on there's a lot of data coming out of china and now also coming out of south korea that seems to indicate that there are large broad bases of spreader populations who are asymptomatic meaning mostly young people probably who are walking around feeling not sick at all or very very slightly sick and they are the ones that are driving the infectious rate up here but what that also means is that they may have also recovered and could be advancing us to a point of hurt immunity the only way we can know if that is true is to buy a different kind of test and these tests are pennies they're made in china they're called igg and igm antibody tests if we could get tens or hundreds of millions we could ask the national guard or we could ask you know for us to use the voting infrastructure we have in the 50 states for people to get tested and the reason why that's important is that if it looks like there are millions or tens of millions of people who are expressing this antibody we have a huge denominator it means that the severity of this disease is not what we think and a lot of us can get back to work which is probably the next critical thing that's if you believe the bull case whether you believe it or not i think we're at a point in time now where that the government does need to act you know it's taken us three weeks to get to chloroquine and rendezvir as a government endorsed statement i hope it doesn't take three weeks for us to realize that we should be testing every man woman and child in the united states for these antibodies because the faster we understand how prevalent this disease has been the faster we can get to this rally that everybody wants do you are you a believer in the bull case you lay out or not i think that if you read the science right now there is a very good chance i would put that at about 30 percent so a one in three chance which is why it's a bet worth taking that what we have is something that is broadly being infectiously spread largely by young people in an asymptomatic fashion they are doing it unwittingly and unknowingly and because it doesn't affect them that much and because the effects of this travel upstream in the age distribution histogram they're not thinking that much of it now that's not to blame them they don't know but testing for these antibodies would allow us to definitively understand whether this is true of course well that's why that's why that's why south korea was at such an advanced stage of their testing in their you know quote-unquote recovery uh than we were is because they were able to identify early on through testing in magnitudes that we still haven't reached who to isolate and to stop these super spreads of the the likes of which you're you're talking about let me ask you quick because i don't i don't have a whole ton of time chamath um the corporate world's gonna look a lot different on on the other side of this i think i think we know that as somebody who sits on boards of companies as somebody who invests in company companies and believes in the future generation of leadership in this country how is this going to look on the other side what boards are able to do what ceos are able to do uh buybacks and dividends and all the likes yeah two things um i think we need to talk about companies and we need to talk about hedge funds on the company side you know the ceos of companies and compensation committees of most boards have been engaged in a game and this game is all about working compensation around earnings per share and even when earnings would not naturally go up they were able to juice earnings per share by reducing share counts they did that by getting levered and doing buybacks that enriched ceos it enriched board directors and enriched the hedge funds that activated for those changes that's all it helped and the problem with that is that now we have a whole bunch of companies who you know frittered away tens and hundreds of billions of dollars on buybacks when they should have been saving it for a rainy day investing it in r d or doing something that was much more important than what they did there needs to be consequences for those actions the second is that when you look at the hedge fund industry a lot of why there's so much volatility right now is because these hedge funds are massively levered you know you heard earlier about risk parity funds blowing up these are not funds that are trading billions of dollars scott when you go to a prime broker with 25 or 30 billion dollars of treasury securities they're allowing you to lever that up 10 12 13 x in the case of some of these hedge funds 100 billion dollar funds running trillions of dollars of notional exposure and they are completely roiling the capital markets they are turning around and turning upside down people's 401ks and people's pensions driving companies down 70 when they maybe should only be down 30 somebody needs to answer for that volatility after 2008 the bank's hands were slapped they were handcuffed they were told how to operate but in return what they did all of the very aggressive practices on leverage they just put off balance sheet and who took it up the hedge funds and in these last 10 years what do you see hedge fund guys are the ones buying quarter billion dollar apartments hedge fund guys are the ones buying sports teams hedge fund guys are the ones uh buying art and now all of a sudden if we have to go and step into the capital markets with united states dollars that everybody has a right to as citizens of this country to shore up the financial operations of the capital markets somebody has to pay a price for that as well you know not a single person went to jail in 2008 in in in wall street and in that financial mechanism and in return what happened was main street was decimated the opioid crisis was created the wealth gap was exacerbated you can't go through this again but where where were where were voices like this at the height of the the bull market why are we only talking about this when when we're we're talking after stocks collected wait we're not even talking about it now you and i are talking about it there's not a single hedge fund that wants to sit there and admit that their prime broker is giving them seven eight nine turns of leverage because volatility was low and now that volatility is high they're de-grossing and de-levering every day in these violent swings and you layer on quant funds you layer on arb funds you layer on macro funds and all these folks were running business models to try to eke out basis points multiplied by huge leverage so that they could make current compensation and yet again because the fed steps in yet again because the prime brokers tell the fed we cannot shut these markets down main street will have to bail everybody out well look there's the president just a moment ago said that he supports the u.s taking equity stakes in companies that it aids not enough he he was asked he was asked earlier whether he would support um legislation or in this in the stimulus plans no bonuses and and no buybacks uh he seemed to suggest that he would at least in that moment whether he does in the broader sense and when it comes down to it who knows but not about cry is out there that's not that's not enough you can't just hold the ceo accountable after making 400 million dollars over the last 10 years to all of a sudden take no bonus or to claw back 10 million dollars a bonus let me tell you something when i i've gone through four of these uh cataclysmic economic cycles in my lifetime okay in two of them i was poor i grew up on welfare above a laundromat family of five in a 300 square foot apartment i had nothing those two events did not change my life because i started with nothing and i had nothing at the end of it these last two cycles i found myself on the other opposite end of the spectrum and for for all intents and purposes not that much change the people that get decimated are they 80 in the middle and we have a responsibility this time around to learn from what we did wrong the last time you can't just bail folks out financially for being financially greedy it's unfair and what we did in 2008 was incomplete all we did was shift risk off balance sheet and in that what we are now in the middle of is this incredible whipsaw up and down every day which is driving psychology which is driving behavior that is in my opinion unproductive and so you know we have the president of the united states in many ways i think on his heels trying to react to markets we have the treasury secretary trying to react to markets but they're reacting to a market that isn't necessarily trading directionally correctly it's a bunch of folks who are massively levered up in a low ball environment going through an incredibly difficult violent unwind i i hear that that has nothing to do with anything i i hear you i i i i i wish somebody's around scott but it's you have to pin these guys down you can't let them run this lever but at some point at some point you you can't have an 08 happen and and and a year months whatever later say this is what should have happened nobody ever says at the moment that everybody's you know parting like it's 1999 that the the system's broken that it's only after the fact and that's what we're finding ourselves doing yet again and it's going to be a conversation of the moment and it's going to last for a long time and maybe that's a good thing but it it would really be nice if these voices were heard when when the dow is looking at it's going to hit 30 000 and the nasdaq looks like it's going to hit 10 000.
scott the problem is these things are not known it's not as if there's a report that says xyz hedge fund is running 13 times or xyz other hedge fund is running 25 times you don't know these things it's only in moments like this that that data leaks out because the risk groups inside these funds talk the traders inside these funds talk they're all going through pain together and this is when the information happens so my point is we know now that it wasn't two or three turns of leverage that these folks were running it is 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 times in some cases it is long-term capital management writ large playing out in prime time now every day in the market and my point to you is we now have a responsibility we didn't know ltcm before 98 happened we knew it after but we had a responsibility to act 08 happened we reacted to the banks and what i'm telling you is the banks shifted risk off balance sheet we know where the bodies are buried now it is 2020 march we know what to do and so along with whatever bailout we do all of these trillions of dollars that have stepped into the capital markets right now to shore up what's going on needs to come at a price and the american people have a right to demand that you cannot run leverage this way because these exogenous facts these externalities will happen more and more over time and we are not prepared it is clear that the markets cannot handle these kinds of events and that we were too optimistic and we don't deserve to be given this much leverage it's like giving a baby a loaded gun i'm going to leave it there on
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