저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 지수는 만기 전 핀 레벨(ES 2410~2425, SPY 243 부근)을 중심으로 등락 후 주간 마감 부근에서 수렴할 가능성이 크다. 지수 옵션 만기 핀 분석 - ES 선물: 미결제약정 기준 금요일(6/30) 핀은 2425 부근으로 추정. 2410~2400 조정 후 신고점(2450) 시도 가능성 언급. - 현물 S&P500: 사상 최고가 2452.82, 당일 종가 2440.69로 약 13포인트 차이. 2415/2403 지지 구간 언급. - SPY: 핀 243 부근, 상단 245(신고가 시도), 하단 240~242 조정 시나리오 제시. 개별 종목 핀 분석 - 애플: 핀 145 부근으로 판단, 144 하락 또는 148 상승 후 복귀 가능. 추세선 지지 여부 관찰. - 엔비디아: OI 기준 핀 150, 155까지 상승 후 150 복귀 시나리오. 최근 주봉 슈팅스타·도지 캔들로 약세 신호를 경계하며 142 테스트 가능성도 언급. 기타 종목 관찰 - 스냅: 엔걸핑 후 스피닝탑 도지 형태로 횡보. 30분봉 추세선 기반 단기 매매 또는 일봉 인사이드바 셋업 제시, 17달러 부근 중간 저점 지지에서 상단 추세선 반등 기대. - 언더아머: 추세선·피벗 지지 근처 인사이드바 트리거(21.46) 진입 후 상단 목표 제시, 손절 수준에 따라 수익률 차이 설명. 리스크 관리 - 셋업의 우위보다 리스크 관리가 핵심이며 모든 매매는 50:50 확률이라는 전제 강조.
다듬은 글
all right welcome to another trading Enterprise episode today is June 28 2017. I thought I do a brief mid-week update here and kind of take a look at some of the price action on the indexes and a couple of the stocks that might have been interest just to kind of watch for the next couple days for the end of the quarter and end of the week option expiration so let's take a look at the index here first looking at the es future as you can see the Australian know here to saying that the PIN for this Friday is uh you know based on the open interest as of now the latest open interest that I could get hold of seems like the pin might be targeting 24.25 and also uh looking at some of these numbers also indicate that the price could move around between you know somewhere around tagging this 2410 or 2400 which you can see on Tuesday it came down to uh that 24 15 area 24 16 24 15 area and and also the possibility of targeting up that 2450 which would be close to the new all-time high so with the two remaining day we can see if the pipes pull back again tomorrow then I could tag this to 24 10 again you know maybe come down and test this 24 12.75 or if you're gonna move up and Target the new high okay so we're basically talking about maybe uh you know about 13 points away right so that could easily uh uh you know move up there and tag the uh the all-time higher the 24 5150 then uh you know it kind of chopped around and pull back for the 25 20 I mean the 24-25 expiration on Friday okay so if we take a look at the cash index on the S P right so let me shift this over here you can see that the uh all-time high is 24 52.82 and today it closed at 24 40 69 so again that's basically like you know little bit over 13 points away okay and the uh the Allen here is the 2415 and the 2403 so that's equivalent to the 2410 nearly the 2410 on the es probably or somewhere around the 2400 right and if we take a look at this spy also I got the Spy here I said the projector pin based on the uh you know open interest it's somewhere around 243 and I say that also looking at those numbers the price could move to two you know 245 which would be a new all-time high or come down to 242 which attacked yesterday you know on Tuesday and actually went below that and also the possibility of 240 which is down here so if you can pull back to mall and uh you know might get down to this 240 pullback tomorrow and Friday before which is our option expiration and then pump it back up you know to the uh 243 so that's one possibility or or you could just close you know try to do this end of the quarter window dressing and move it up to uh 245 attack the new uh all-time high and then come back down and pin it at 243 on Friday okay so those are the numbers that uh to focus on uh for the next couple days on the index to see how well are these open interest number uh you know indicating where the price might be near the close on on Friday and how is the price going to bounce around uh uh based on these uh these numbers here this boundary okay so then the other thing is let's take a look at Apple as well because apple is also quite interesting for the basically for the uh of X pinning so if I go and take a look at the Apple here uh you know Apple basically I got a projected pin somewhere around 145 as you can see that this thing could bounce around also maybe get down to the uh 144 uh and then possibly uh could also push up to 148 so it could come up to this level here right before it uh come back down and pin it at 145 on Friday or it could also uh you know come down and test this trend line y'all kind of how to hook around this trend line before I come back up to this 145 so this could be some chop here right but the uh the key thing is you know basically at this area here that we're basically looking at right you know at this area okay for the uh for the balance in the next couple days and the uh the pin number that I'm looking at is somewhere around the 145 right then the other one is NVIDIA I'm not sure if you got some of you might have or watch the video that I put a couple weeks ago on Nvidia and extension on Nvidia uh the initial video was talking about this H pattern breakdown here as you can see it didn't quite work out that way but there's still a possibility for this particular age right just forming a bigger age here for this breakdown but again you know basically still looking at make sure they come down and you know test this 142 but right now based on the oi I'm not sure how reliable that is because it's not that much of an open interest but based on the open interest numbers uh look like it might project a 150 pin so it could jump around at this 150 and there's a possibility of moving up to 155 all right so that mean it could come up and bump around this trend line here and then come back down on this 150 pin here right and then could get down to the uh well basically it's not too much and maybe a 149 somewhere around 149 uh you know I could take the 149 so basically probably going to chop around and mostly just gonna bounce back up to this 155 and then come back down to pair net 150 and that's basically what it looks like but I'm still again I'm basically still looking at this right down here okay to come down to this level okay maybe uh not in the next couple days but uh in the coming week so basically that's what I'm looking at and this it could take out this level here you know if we take out this level uh let me see what that level is right if you could take out this level then we could put put up the uh you know maybe a forming a new uh high or low higher high right you know so you know basically we got this higher low and if you take out this level let's say come up here somewhere then extension we got a higher high then it might come up and take out this uh this high but again I'm a little bit wary about this uh this candle here right this weekly candle you see this right basically a heck of a shooting star and then uh last week we also got another you know shooting star doji here you know Greystone doji pretty much all right so so those kind of stuff is kind of putting a little bearish tone on the price action here so unless those things get invalidated then basically I'm still kind of looking for this thing to pull back down okay and then the couple stock that I put on watch here last week's video the last session we're basically talking about snap you know parent company or SnapChat right still kind of hovering around here you can see that it's still kind of chopping around within this uh engulfing candle this engulfing is a spinning top doji so one could uh you know kind of look at this and looking at the 30 minute chart here right you could see that there is a little bit of a trend line coming down here you get the you know we want to be a little bit aggressive you could play this thing you know maybe trade a little bit around it uh you know using this maybe as a stop but if you want to be conservative then just trade in on the on the daily then looking at playing this as a inside bar setup right the inside day type of setup or you know you could scale it in so it's not depend what your trading plans you know and yeah there's no Holy Grail in terms of trading there's no sure thing but the the edge is not of the setup but it's mostly uh is your risk management it's all come down to your risk management if you've got a good risk management plan then yeah it doesn't matter uh you know what your setup is uh chances are it's going to be random anyway right you know so even though we might say that a certain setup might have a higher probability of success but still you know every trade that we put on is a 50 50 proposition okay so basically just a risk management and and again you know the the awesome opportunity here uh depending how aggressive you you want to be okay but the key thing is you know basically uh making the the guess that you know uh slightly beneath the 17 level is you know basically the 17 level is the intermediate low and expecting this thing to bounce back up maybe possibly come and attack this uh you know upper Channel or trend line here okay and that's basically the premises here to look for this trade setup and Traders back up to the upper band and with the risk of you know vehicle 12 17 then we can stop out so that's basically the program that we want to set up okay then the other one is the Under Armor All right okay so you can see Under Armor we're basically looking at this pivot line I mean this trend line here with these uh support level pivot all right and we're essentially saying you know we could play this pivot or the you know inside bar here right you know so so basically you know got in on this trigger here this 2146 all right with this uh as a trigger for potential entry and essentially play up to this Banfield then we could more than get the uh you know more than two ER because this is too we are and if we get up here that would be basically uh it's a six hour so it's all depends how aggressive is your stop right you know because uh you know there are different way to put your stop you know if you be really aggressive when you stop here then extended filling up the Gap will give you a potential six hour of return on your wrist if you want to be a little bit more conservative and put your stop down at yourself believe this uh pivot and uh you know you know just kind of beneath this this trend line here then uh you know you get a little bit uh yeah I have to get a little bit higher if it's building the Gap it's basically uh more like a uh you know a five hour type of return okay so those are basically some of the level that you might want to keep an eye on and I could lock the rest of your trading for the week
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