저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
변동성을 두려워할 필요 없다고 주장하며 기업이익이 연 8% 성장하므로 주식시장도 9년마다 두 배가 된다고 봄. 과거 약 93년간 10% 이상 하락이 50회, 25% 이상 하락이 15회 있었다고 강조. 기업을 이해하지 못한 채 싸다고 사는 것(가격이 떨어졌다고 사는 것)과 부채 없는 기업을 몰라서 파는 문제를 경계. 시장의 다음 3,800포인트는 상승할 것이라고 확신한다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Good day, F investors. I have found an amazing video by Peter Lynch that explains everything you need to know about investing. So, enjoy it. Are you concerned about the volatility in the U financial markets today? Do you think something needs to be done to reduce it? I I I love volatility. I I think I remember when uh in 1972 the market went from uh uh down dramatically and Taco Bell went from 14 to one.
They had no debt. They never had a a restaurant close and uh I started buying at seven but I kept on to it and it went to one and uh it was the largest position in Mellin in 1978 when it was bought out for by $42 by Pepsicola and I think it would have gone to 400 if they didn't buy it out. I think volatility is terrific.
I think it is very I think these callers are very important. I don't think the market going up 80 points one day and down 80 the next uh is a good thing for the public. I think that's not a very good thing. But I think all these callers and all these other things to keep the volatility down each day is important but the market's going to go up and down.
Human nature hasn't changed a lot in 25,000 years and some event will come out of left field and uh the market will go down or the market will go up. So I volatility will occur and markets will continue to have these ups and downs. I think that's a great opportunity if people can understand what they own.
If they don't understand what they own, they can own mutual funds, try to figure out what mutual funds they own and keep adding to it over basically corporate profits have grown about 8% a year historically. So corporate profits double about every nine years. The stock market ought to double about every nine years.
So I think the next market's about 3,800 today. 3,700. I'm pretty convinced the next 3,800 points will be up. It won't be down. The next 500 points, the next 600 points, I don't know which way they're going. So, the market ought to double in the next eight or nine years. It ought to double again in the eight or nine years after that because profits will go up 8% a year and and stocks will follow.
That's all there is to it. But you should study history. And history is the important thing you learn from. What you learn from history is the market goes down. It goes down a lot. The math is simple. There's been 93 years a century. This is easy to do. The market's had 50 declines of 10% or more. So 50 declines in 93 years.
About once every two years, the market falls 10%. We call that a correction. That means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly. But we, you know, we call it a correction. And uh uh so 50 declines in 93 years, about once every two years, the market falls 10%. Of those 50 declines, 15 have been 25% or more.
That's known as a bare market. We've had 15 declines in 93 years. So, every six years, the market's going to have a 25% decline. That's all you need to know. You need to know the market's going to go down sometime. If you're not ready for that, you shouldn't own stocks. And it's good when it happens.
If you like a stock at 14, it goes to six, that's great. You understand the company, you look at the balance sheet and they're doing fine. And you're hoping to get to 22 with it. 14 to 22 is terrific. 6 to 22 is exceptional. So, you take advantage of these declines. They're going to happen. No one knows when they're going to happen.
It would be very people tell you about it after the fact that they predicted it, but they predicted it 53 times. And uh so you can take advantage of the volatility in the market if you understand what you own because a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much how you know how much further can it go down I remember when Polaroid went from 130 to 100 people said here's this great company great record if ever gets below 100 you know just buy every share you know and it did get below 100 a lot of people bought on that basis saying look it's gone from 135 to 100 it's now 95 what a within a year it was 18 and this is a company with no debt.
I mean this is a company it was just so overpriced it went down. Uh I did the same thing in my uh I think my first or second year Fidelity Kaiser Industries had gone from $26 a share to 16. I said how much lower can it go at 16. So I think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever on the New York on the American Stock Exchange of Kaiser Industries at 14.
I says you know it's gone from 26 to 16. How much lower can it go? Well at 10 I called my mother and said mom you got to uh look at this Kaiser Industries. I mean, how much lower can it go? It's gone from 26 to 10. Well, it went to six, it went to five, it went to four, it went to three and uh now I unfortunately this happened rapidly or I would probably be still catting or be working at the stop and shop, but I it happened fast.
So I was able to this was compressed that u and at three I figured out you know there's something very wrong here because Kaiser Industries owns 40% of Kaiser steel they own 40% of Kaiser aluminum they own 32% of Kaiser cement they own Kaiser broadcasting they own Kaiser sand and gravel Kaiser engineers they own Jeep they own business after business and they had no debt now I learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt it's it's tricky some people can approach that it's a it's a real achievement But they had no debt and the whole company at three was selling at about 75 million.
At that point it was equal to buying one Boeing 747. I said there's something wrong with this company selling for 75 million. I was a little premature at 16 but uh I said everything's fine and eventually this will work out. And they what they did is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders.
They they passed out shares in Kaiser cement. They passed out shares in Kaiser aluminum. They passed out their public shares in Kaiser steel. They sold all the other businesses and you got about $50 a share. And but if you didn't understand the company, if you're just buying on the fact the stock had gone from 26 to 16 and then it went to 10, what would you do when it went to nine?
What would you do when it went to eight? What would you do when it went to seven? This is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it. Then it went down and they don't know what to do now. Do you flip a coin? Do you walk around the block? You know, what do you do?
Psychiatrists haven't worked so far. never seen them running in the the psychological psychiatry fund. I've never seen listed for the uh with the SEC to make it through as a mutual fund. So I they haven't seem to help. Uh I've tried prayer that hasn't worked. The uh the uh so if you don't understand the company of this problem when they go down uh eventually they always come back.
Uh this one is uh this one doesn't work either. Uh people think uh RCA just about get back to its 1929 high when General Electric took it over. Uh a lot of double knits never came back. Remember those beauties? Uh uh floppy discs, Western Union. Uh the list goes on and on. Uh people saying it'll come back.
Well, it doesn't have to come back. Uh here's another one you hear all the time. It's $3. How much can I lose? I have had people call me up saying, "I'm thinking of buying the stock at three. How much can I lose?" Well, again, you you may need a piece of paper for this, but if you put uh if you and if you put $20,000 in a stock at 50 or your neighbor put 20,000 at full at 50 into the stock and you put $20,000 in at three and it goes to zero, you lose exactly the same amount of money.
Everything. If people say it's three, how much can I lose? Well, if you put a million dollars on it, you can lose a million dollars. Just the fact of stock, this is the only this may be a reason to research a stock. The fact a stock is three down from 100 doesn't mean you should uh buy it. And in fact, short sellers, people that really make money in stocks, they don't short Walmart.
They don't short Home Depot. They don't short the great companies, Johnson Johnson. They short stocks down from 80 to 7. They'd like to short it at 16 or 22, but they they figured out at seven that this company is going to go to zero. They just haven't blown taps on this thing yet. It's going to zero.
And they're selling it short at seven. They're selling you short at six, at five, at four, at three, at two, at 1 and a quarter. And you know, to sell something short, you need a buyer. Somebody has to buy the damn thing. And you want to who's buying this thing? It's these people saying, "It's three.
How much lower can it go?" You know, the uh the uh Thank you, Peter. If you enjoyed his mindset and how we structured it when it comes to investing, please check my free stock market course, investing course where we are summarizing Peter Lynch's book. Also, subscribe to this channel. And that's it. Click like if you enjoyed this. Thank you and I'll see you in the next video.
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