저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
영상은 주식시장에서 흔히 하는 위험한 발언 10가지를 소개한다. '더 이상 떨어질 수 없다', '본전 가면 팔겠다'처럼 과거 가격이나 심리에 기대는 말, 부채 없으니 파산 없다는 말, '보수적 종목이라 안전하다'는 말 등을 비판하고, 주식 보유 여부와 무관하게 수익을 놓치는 것을 걱정하는 태도를 경계한다. 또 하락 후 반등을 노린 저가매수, 소형 미검증 종목(long shot)의 리스크, 장기 관점에서 종목을 추적하는 것의 중요성을 강조한다.
다듬은 글
no one's ever gone bankrupt without any debt now that would take a real I think you have to give some kind of distinguished service award do somebody did that the uh but they had no debt I said it's not going to go to zero you know I was wrong when I said it can't go below 15 so we hung on and within three years they gave out the shares in Kaiser steel gave out the shares in Kaiser SP gave out the shares in Kaiser steel and aluminum and they sold off all the businesses you got about $55 a share but if you didn't know the story and the stock went from 1511 and you're just saying how much lower can it go when it went to 9 went to 8 you you would have gone so you can't just say it can't go any lower because I saw Taco Bell go from 14 to1 in 1974 and they had no debt and making 60 cents a share what I'd like to talk about is what I call the 10 most dangerous things uh people say about stocks uh uh here's a good one it's gone down this much already you can't go any lower uh I remember when Polaroid went from 40 to about 107 people said if you ever get polar right under 100 got to buy it you just back up the truck buy the stock you know uh stock you get to 110 they rally you know fall 103 got 112 got 105 they said gets under 100 bipolar Polaroid broke 100 people started buying it and within 9 months the stock was 18 no one's ever gone bankrupt without any debt there's a correl to that that's even more dangerous Philip Morris sold for 12 cents in 1951 and then goes to 60 cents in 1961 how much higher can this go it's gone up fivefold they missed the power of marra they missed the this 220 countries in the world they missed the cash flow of the company they missed everything this stock was 100 bagger after going up fivefold but people sold it just saying how much higher can it go just saying it can't go any higher it's gone this much already that's very dangerous and don't don't use that one and uh it's a very bad thing to do eventually they always come back here's another one that sucks uh that's a technical stock market term we just use only in the stock market the uh they don't have to come back but they say eventually they always come back not true uh here's a great one it's $3 how much guy lose this is a great one you see I get get out this is I don't have a computer and I can't do a high Lev math but uh just do this one let's say you buy your neighbor buys $10,000 of a stock at 50 the St now three and you put $25,000 in at three if it goes to zero who loses the most a lot of people cannot answer this question you know the uh I mean if you put a billion in at three you can lose a billion you know I mean they blow TAPS in lots of companies every year you know you just have they can go to zero here's a good one that helped me a lot It's always darkest before the dawn uh the uh this business is terrible it's awful you ought to buy the group this is not a good way of making money at the the uh uh in 198 2 there was 11,000 of those oil rigs drilling left drilling those holes all over Oklahoma and Texas and Colorado we used to have the rec count every week and the rec count fell from 11,000 882 to 6,083 well the rec count was only a th000 3 years ago so it went from 11,000 to 6,000 to 5,000 then 8 years later it was under a th000 the industry really started to turn about 2 years ago so just saying the business can't get worse I I was lucky enough have industry and Stell I had the Tex industry these people have been through recessions depressions were Wars they've seen it all there a great expression Tex industry It's always darkest before pitch black the now that's a good one to remember because business is terrible you can get considerably terrible get terrible to the power of six and uh uh when I rebound to 10 I'll sell uh here's a great rule uh somebody buys a stock at 10 and it falls to six they say if it gets back to 10 I'll sell now I think the math four and six I can handle this l math I think that's about a 66% return you ought to buy it if you think it's going back to 10 you ought to buy the hell of the damn thing but they think if it gets back to 10 I'll sell now what you ought to do is never put down a round number because I think for the next 26 years the stock will be between five and nine and a quarter it'll never get to 10 so maybe put 9 and8 or 8 3/4 but just saying the stock if it gets back to what I paid for it because a very important rule this is a very one of the key rules the stock doesn't know you own it remember that but people treat stocks sometimes like a grandchildren or a puppy they think they think the stock knows who you are you know it's you know whyn't me worry I own conservative stocks uh I don't have to worry I own conservative stocks I when Con Ed fell uh 80% then tripled uh so just because you inherit some stock and it's so-called conservative like hman Kodak fell 75% IBM fell 75% don't tell anybody you own a conservative stock companies are very Dynamic I don't buy that argument here's a very dangerous one look at all the money I've lost I didn't buy it in the 13 years of R mellan I listed uh I think about 200 stocks a through L on the New York Stock Exchange they went up 10-fold or more that I didn't own and people worry all the time about missing Microsoft missing Western Digital missing uh United Airlines they spend all their time worry about stocks they miss you cannot lose money in a stock you don't own that's a very you have the only way to lose money is buy a stock have it go down and sell it that's the only way I missed that one I'll catch the next one that usually does not work buying the next of something usually doesn't work it's a it's very bad it's like buying on dips I think it's always better buy from dip so that was a better rule than Buy on dip you may have to explain this to some other people uh this is another technical term may have to explain after hours where the dip is at that stock has gone up I must be right stock is gone down it must be wrong I'm convinced that people do this all the time they buy a stock at 10 they buy a little bit of it it goes to 13 they now say they don't know any more about it than they knew when they bought out 10 they have no idea what this company does it's gone to 13 now they take a second mortgage in the house and buy a 13 the best thing could happen for is it's that go directly from 10 to four for these folks it's going to go to four eventually but it goes 13 in the middle they convinced now they bought 100 shares at 10 now they buy 20,000 at 13 and uh all the fact is the stock from 10 to 13 is it went up the average movement of a stock in the year stock exchange this Century between its high and low has been 50% the average stock so stocks go up and down a lot within a year and say this stock is going up means you're right doesn't mean a damn avoid long shots uh these are the compan that we have this very technical term for this uh called whisper stocks you know these are stocks that are going to uh grow hair and uh make your kid have better spelling and but they're missing they don't have any sales yet you know that's the missing element of the story the story is fation there's no profits no sales yet but my God if this works if this works it's going to be the next zerox you know and uh and it's going to help M and space and everything it's a very very good deal now this is not a long shot this is a no shot you have to separate these out I've tried 30 these I have never broken even on a long shot never i' made 25 30 times my money on some stocks I never thought about Sally May or mbia or Fanny May or some of the banks or Stop and Shop i' make 20 times the money 30 times money I had no idea I thought the stocks are going north I had no idea you look back 10 years later you say my God I made a lot of money in this thing the on I went into thinking I could make four times my money I've never broken even if a Stock's three and it has huge potential write down the story take the stock symbol if it's going to 300 it's okay to buy it at 15 check in later check a year later see if it's still listed see if you still get a quote on it see if they still have any orangs yet but if it's going write the story down some of these work I haven't heard yet but maybe they will work but it's worth tuning in 6 months later
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