저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
Ackman은 사업 품질(예측 가능성·해자)을 기준으로 소수(10~12개) 우량주에 집중 투자하는 원칙을 설명한다. 시장 급락 시 저평가된 우량기업을 매수하며, 헤르츠(Hertz)는 과거 부채·테슬라 차량 잔존가치 하락으로 주가가 90% 폭락했으나 관세로 중고차 잔존가치가 오르면 재무구조가 개선되어 수익이 날 것으로 보고 약 2% 비중으로 매수했다. 레버리지가 커 손실 위험도 크다고 인정한다.
다듬은 글
The most important thing for us is what we call business quality. So we look for businesses that one we can predict what they're going to look like with a . So the value of any financial asset is the present value of the cash the business will generate over its life. If you can't predict what the business looks like 5 years, 10 years from now, 15 years from now, you really can't figure out what it's worth.
So we try to find businesses that are first predictable and then we will and in order to for the business to be predictable it's also has to be protected from the various forces in the world. The hardest thing to do as an investor is to figure out or determine you know is this a disrupt business that's going to be disrupted by two citadel students working in a garage or is it a business that's going to survive whatever technological changes occur AI etc.
That's the hardest part about investing. But once you found a business that meets that criteria um you know we sort of have a library of these kind of companies and then we track them on a regular basis and even the best businesses in the world at various times of sometimes for reasons completely unrelated to the business become available at really cheap prices right every stock in the S&P went down you know something like 10 or more percent in the couple days after the tariff announcement uh some businesses are materially affected by tariffs others are not if you if you do suffic efficient work, you know, the businesses well.
Um, because of the volatility in markets, every once in a while, a really great company becomes available at a really cheap price and we just wait for those moments. And so, it's not like we're figuring it out before other people. It's just that we know a meaningful number of companies. Um, when the stock prices move significantly, you know, become a lot cheaper, we update our work.
If if it's still as interesting as we thought before, now available at an interesting price, we buy. There aren't that many companies that meet that description that are available at a cheap price. So the other thing we do is we just concentrate meaning we own 10 things. Um most investors own you know a typical mutual fund might own a hundred securities.
Typical investor most investors make the mistake of owning too many things. And the reason for that is diversification protects you from ignorance. Right? If you don't know what you're doing just do a lot of things. Right? If you if you you know most business people know a ton about their own business and they're super concentrated in their own business.
You know, if you look at through the Forbes 400, the wealthiest people in the country made their money generally in one company. They had a portfolio of one. I mean, that's an incredible degree of concentration, right? So, you know, 10 12 stocks is more than adequate diversification if you're investing in really high quality companies.
And so, the combination of concentration kind of doing our homework and being good at, you know, figuring out the risk of disruption has enabled us to be successful. You you added a stock today. you know, out of the stock today actually we bought a position bought a little under 20% of Herz um and what attracted so we most of our investments are large cap dominant companies with strong balance sheets uh kind of long-term durable growth companies very difficult to disrupt and we put 10 15% of our assets in those.
Occasionally we come across an investment that we call a mispriced probabilistic investment where there's a much bigger risk that we lose money but there's a much larger potential for gain and Hertz is sort of an example of that. So the Hertz basically the story here is uh Hertz went bankrupt uh during co because people stopped renting cars and the company had a fair amount of leverage.
It came out of bankruptcy like general growth. Our bad we missed it where the equity basically remained intact and then the management team made a in retrospect uh strategic decision that was a disaster which they decided to buy 100,000 Teslas and have an EV fleet. You know uh Tesla's an amazing car.
Uh they thought the market would differentiate them from their competitors, but they underestimated a few things. One, how to keep the car. you know, it's you go to a gas station, you fill up the car in in at 3 minutes. Well, when the guy brings the Tesla back, it takes a lot longer for the car to kind of recharge.
Also, the consumer, a lot of consumers hadn't driven a Tesla before. It's a little bit different of a kind of a driving experience. People worry about running out of, you know, power, etc. And so that uh was a problem and they realized it uh and uh they decided they wanted to shrink their Tesla fleet.
But then Elon materially reduced the price of the model you know Y and as a result the residual values of Teslas went down and and what's Herz's business has sort of two components one component is they own a half million cars and they finance with basically 100% financing that half million cars with you know these securitized loans and the way it works is um if residual values of cars go down Herz has to put more money into this securization to keep it sort of meet the various kind of standards otherwise the lenders can liquidate the cars which of course would be a disaster for the company.
So when the residual value of Teslas uh went down they had to borrow a lot of money in the business to put more money into the securization and that levered up the company bit of mismanagement coupled with this problem and the stock got you know crushed you know down 90%. Um what intrigued us was a couple of things.
So one a new management team had come in to run the company that seemed very capable was doing the right things. Uh the second thing is that Trump was talking about tariffs, auto tariffs. What's interesting about tariffs in the auto industry is you don't charge tariffs on used cars. And so if the price of cars is going to go up by 25% because of tariffs, the residual value of cars is going to go up.
So the all of a sudden they're 500,000 500,000 cars uh the residual value is going to be higher and so this securization which consumed a lot of cash well the good news is that when residual values are higher you can actually take cash out of the uh securitized portion of the business and they had worked them through basically the the big kind of one-time loss on the Teslas and our view is they're going to come out of this start generating more profits and because this company is so levered you the the Tesla I'm sorry the Hertz stock is almost like an option like a long-term option on this sort of turnaround and um you know you're paying a billion dollars uh for the company and there's like you know 12 billion of debt against the cars there's like four billion of debt against the company and the equity reminds me a bit like the general growth uh kind of equity and so we bought you know 20% of the company there's a 60% you know smart shareholder that's trying to fix it uh it's you know for cost a relatively small investment.
We invested about 200 $230 million. So, it's like a 2% or so, a little under 2% position, but it can be a 7 or 10x over the next three, four, five years. So, but you can lose your money too because there's a lot of debt and uh you know, the risk is uh that if in fact the whole tariff thing puts us into a a deep dark recession, that's not good for rental cars. O cabid and torque.
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