저자: DanDarrow · 외국인
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AVGO 실적 셋업이 무너졌으니 이번 주 포지션을 무리하게 잡기보다 관망하는 것이 낫다는 결론. 브로드컴 셋업 분석: 월요일 기준 쐐기(웻지)·삼각수렴 패턴이 깔끔했고, 지난 분기 약 20포인트 움직임, 옵션 내재 변동폭 약 15포인트(주가 240달러대)로 255~215 범위를 예상했음. 셋업 붕괴: 화요일 패턴 하단 이탈, 오늘 큰 갭다운으로 종가 대비 약 10포인트 낮게 거래. 3일간 약 30포인트 반전이 나와 기술적 우위가 사라짐. 옵션 변동성은 15→약 12.5~13포인트로 소폭 하락. 시장 환경: 강세 셋업은 약세 흐름에서 보상받기 어렵고, 여러 요인이 상충되는 신호를 만들어 이번 주 아이디어 다수를 철회 중. 향후 일정: 다음 주 영상은 계속 진행하되 시장이 정리되어 셋업이 개선되기를 기대. 12월·1월 추가 실적 시즌 예고. 단기 이벤트: 내일 아침 고용지표 발표. 스파이더 스트래들(SPY 옵션) 만기 전 약 4포인트 변동 가격 반영, 내일 큰 변동성 예상. 리스크: 셋업 붕괴와 옵션 프리미엄 변화로 진입 조건 악화, 변동성 확대 구간.
다듬은 글
hey what's happening guys dan Darrow here with another options to play video update so I spent yesterday's video talking about game planning how I do the research right shared those websites that I go to to really get the idea of what's coming up on the calendar and you know on on these weekly videos so each Friday I do video kind of looking forward to the earnings upcoming week you know highlighting the big reports highlighting which ones I think are interesting well that's great right like you have a fantastic game plan and then what happens three days four days later everything just goes out the window right I mean I love volatility as much as any other trader out there it's it's great presents so much opportunity but in terms of game plans like for you know three four or five sessions out it can just create like havoc and what happens is you get a set up like Broadcom right so you know coming into this week I talked about how I thought it was actually a decent setup in terms of like chip stock just like overall technical setup right I had this really nice wedge first of all which I was looking at you know so so this was Monday so we'll back out Monday so I'll just say so it had this this really nice wedge right bounced forming like this dependent what to get the 280 here it had a pretty nice move last quarter so about 20 a little bit over 20 actually a little bit oh I should just about 20 on the dot so about 20 points last quarter and going into this week options really weren't too bad there look about 15 points so no for a 240 dollar stock that moved 20 points last quarter I had had a few gaps on it Princeton and 15 really not that bad I like the technical side right you know how to add some some clean levels to work with kind of like a tightening pennant with like moving average congestion area here so you figure that you know president 15 looked on the charts maybe have like 20 points either direction right like 255 so from you know this was coming into the week yeah like mid to 30s right so 255 or in the downside maybe you know 215 possibly 210 so it was it was a nice setup it was options weren't too bad there were clean technical levels and you know increasingly tight consolidation all these things are lining up well what happens is volatility hits and then everything goes crazy so you had a breakout on on Monday as we came back from the g20 summit right and they collapsed on Tuesday broke back below and he basically closed underneath the bottom of this pendant which you can see and then today just had this major gap down and is hanging out you know 10 by about 10 points lower than where it closed so what happens is the patterns just completely busted up what had been like a tight set up going into earnings now I had a false breakout a potential breakdown and you know looking at the options I mean they're they're not bad so that they've actually come down a little bit so you know cut into the week it was about 15 points now it's down closer to like maybe like 13 12 and 1/2 13 so it has come down a little bit but but what's what's the edge you know like where's the edge on this now I mean like the setup isn't clean the stock has had basically a 30 point reversal in three days now I guess I guess you can make the argument that then maybe there's like a snapback if good or it could have a little bit more room lower but it's just not as clean right I mean it was it was a nice setup with you know just a nice clean set up with with decent priced options and it's just busted and and sometimes it's like even though like you could really want to be involved with something and you know you really love the potential like sometimes it's just better to back off of it and in Tuesday's note I talked about how you know just just coming into this week and I had a lot of ideas on the radar and then the way it's played out it's just it's making me back off things because tight setups have been busted some options have gotten more expensive you know bullish setups are a little bit tougher to get rewarded in in bearish tape so it's just like this this current of of you know all these mixed factors right it's just it's just creating kind of like mixed signals for for these setups and and you know with options not necessarily cheap it just makes sense to like back off at some times right there's going to be plenty going on and even even coming up you know the there's still earnings coming up later in December January will be here before you know it and and you know sometimes it's just it's it makes more sense to just leave things alone if if what you had wanted or what you were looking for has you know kind of gone away so you know I I am still screening I'm gonna go ahead with next week's video also but you know hopefully hopefully the market maybe tightens up a bit give some of these these these setups you know a little bit better shot going into the reports you know these huge moves are great like I said I love volatility but in terms of of setups into catalyst it's making just a little bit more challenging uh so if you thought we were done for the week by the way we're not because tomorrow morning we have the jobs report and just still still looking at the spider straddle for the week pricing in over just about four points going into tomorrow so you know we have the remainder of the afternoon today and then tomorrow and like the spider straddle that support that expires tomorrow afternoon as president for bucks so if you thought that we were you know gonna have a quiet Friday well think again because if the options are indicating anything it's that you can expect another pretty big pretty big swing tomorrow so buckle up right hope you guys have a fantastic night and I'll talk to you all tomorrow
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