저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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AI·로봇 혁명으로 향후 5년 실질 GDP 성장률이 연 7.3%까지 가속될 수 있다고 주장. 과거 1500~1900년 연 0.6%, 최근 125년 3% 성장 대비 큰 폭의 도약 전망. 인구 감소로 로봇·생산성이 필요하며, 바이오·AI 등 5대 혁신 플랫폼 중심 투자 강조. 바이낸스식 가상자산(디지털 자산) 및 테슬라 등 혁신 기업에 대한 긍정적 견해 제시. 실업률은 정책 실수가 없다면 현 수준 유지 또는 하락 전망.
다듬은 글
may not be as distant as we were once thinking. For anyone that doesn't know, humanoid robots are basically robots that we'll have in our home and at work. So these are there was a video that I think um Elon retweeted the other day showing one of the human humanoid robots dancing. Dancing. Yes. Was that real?
I was like looking at that video thinking surely that's not real. But he confirmed I believe that it was real. Yes. Yes. Now, when we went to the Cyber Cab event, uh there were some humanoid robots dancing there, but they were tethered and they were remotely controlled. Yeah. Uh now, Cyber Cab, I think, was about a year ago.
Yes. Maybe. So, since then, they've been able to untether them and uh I do believe that those that dancing robot was was um not tethered and not remotely controlled. It was quite shocking to see a robot doing that because if a robot can have that dexterity and mobility and then you overlay that with the AI technologies that are accelerating rapidly, it begs the question and the question is quite clear which is what about humans?
Yes. Um, and just to put a finer, you know, note on this, um, Elon will not be satisfied until these robots can thread a needle. So, that's where we're going. What does that mean for humans? So, you know, the history of technology is that it has been a net job creator throughout history, but humanoid robots are getting awfully close to what we do, right?
So, it's a good question. I I think creativity is a big part of that. Ingenuity and creativity. And, you know, I think there's going to be a there are going to be a lot of new inventions uh in the future. So, let's see what those are. But even today there's something called vibe coding. Have you heard of it?
Okay. Because we've moved into the world of natural language programming. What is vibe coding for someone that doesn't know? It's vibe coding means you know a natural language. I know we all know a natural language. Ours is English for the most part, but could be any language. Um, we're going to be able to go to chatgbt or to especially now they just launched I think last week something called codeex
replet uh and anthropics fantastic for for um programming and we'll say this is what I'm attempting to do in English language and and I've seen demos of this just internally we we're going to replace some of our software that we're buying from outsiders and customize it for us because, you know, we don't have to buy offtheshelf anymore, one sizefits-all.
I think there's going to be a lot more customization and personalization and creativity explosion here. You know, it's interesting that this is happening when the demographic profile of the developed world is as it is. We have a very low unemployment rate in the US. I know the unemployment rates in Europe and the UK have been dropping.
to much lower levels than where where they were stuck for years. I remember thinking, "Wow, double digits. Uh we have a demographic issue. I mean, if you if you watch what uh Elon Musk worries about the most, he he worries about the population implosion uh because collapse collapse in population in the developed world um because we're not uh u we're not producing children above the fertility rate.
We're we are setting up for a shrinkage with China is going there, Japan is going there. And so we're going to need productivity uh productivity to help us if we can't find human beings. Uh okay. So you're so you're saying that the robotics and AI could actually fill the gap that we lose in terms of productivity because our society is going to be like an inverted pyramid.
It's going to be more um elderly people and less young people. Yes. Yes. So the robots are going to Yes. Absolutely. It's productivity is going to be essential. So, as we're looking at real growth ahead and when you think about real growth, uh you should be thinking, okay, somebody's benefiting from this.
Um, and I'm going to set what I I'm going to set up the number here, uh, by describing what has happened historically. If you look from 1500 to 1900 and you try and figure out what real GDP growth was back then, real economic growth, um, as best as uh, Brett Winton, our chief futurist in consultation with academics can determine, it was roughly 0.6% per year.
And then we had the industrial revolution. Uh we had the internal combustion engine, telephone, electricity. And for the past 125 years, real GDP growth has been 3%. And and most li living standards have gone up over time. Some more than others. I know that's a debate, but most have gone up. If we as we look forward based on the five innovation platforms around which we have centered our research and investing, if we're right, real GDP growth in the next 5 years could accelerate to 7.3%.
And that gives you a sense of uh the economic e uh activity wealth generation out there. And what when we are presenting to investors, we are actually presenting to them not only because they're investors, but because they have children or grandchildren who need to adapt to this new world. And our mantra in giving away our research, which we do, is get on the right side of change.
We also do podcasts. Um we we try we do a lot of outreach because we think this is a very important moment in time. Uh seize the moment grab hold of these new technologies because that growth rate is more than twice where we've been. And if you are on the right side of change, we think the opportunities are going to be enormous.
Uh investment opportunities and job opportunities. Yeah. I I feel like I've I feel like um I feel like I can't figure out what how the displacement rate meets the creation rate. So the destruction rate of of current jobs will meet the creation rate of new jobs because many of these new jobs I I guess there's some of them we can't predict yet.
I understand that. But even the ones that we can't predict yet would need to be inherently human i.e. need the skills of a human for them to be occupied by by humans. Um, so what category of stuff is that? Like my my girlfriend's a breath work practitioner. She's upstairs now with 10 women and she's teaching them breath work.
Okay. So she's fine. Yeah. Like cuz they're doing that in person. What? Whatever. She's fine. Well, and maybe she's not if people decide to do it on Yeah. on chachi. But but if they want to be with a group of women Yeah. and you know learn from an expert whom they respect. There's as much the social experience that's going to become more important.
Relationships are going to become more important. Many people in our business I think are going to be out of jobs because uh the business has become really nothing I I shouldn't be this disrespectful and it's not not quite right but uh at all uh but you know so many are just hugging benchmarks uh whether it's S&P 500 or MCI world or the NASDAQ that a machine can do that a machine can do that easily and that is what passive investing is is machines doing it.
I think in order to earn a place in the new world, you've got to add a lot of value, more value than a machine can. So, in our case, we're saying, okay, well, our stocks are not in those benchmarks. Uh, and therefore, you know, they're they're we are doing original research trying to figure out who they are and where they are.
these these companies that are going to transform the world. Why can't AI replace what you're doing in terms of so and we think about that all the time. So AI can use pattern recognition. It's all based on history, right? Uh it can use pattern recognition maybe to do what we're doing. What are the three characteristics that define an innovation platform for us?
The most important one is they follow something called rights law which measures the learning curve. How fast the costs are going to decline with this new technology. Technology is deflationary. Costs fall over time and they're passed through into lower prices or better performance one or the other.
Um that is the most important. A machine can figure that out I'm sure. But asking the questions are going to be important. Like there wasn't before 2014 when we started ARC much on autonomous mobility or EV talls or for that matter AI. AI had become science fiction. There weren't any breakthroughs in recent years but then we got some breakthroughs.
So could so rights law is the first figure out that cost curve decline and and see how quickly the technology can prolificate uh proliferate across sectors. That's the other criteria criterion here. The technologies that we are following are going to cut across economic sectors and apply uh to more than one group of people.
And then the third is that these technologies serve as launching pads for new technologies. So in the case of DNA sequencing, which was the base technology, we needed that before crisper gene editing uh could be created. We needed to be able to understand what was mutating in the genome, where the programming errors were so that gene editing could come in and edit out those programming errors.
And do you think in five 10 years from now that unemployment is going to be higher or lower? In five or 10 years, um let's let's assume we don't have a policy mistake and and a recession. So just just steady state I think it will be the same or lower and most of this is because those baby boomers are retiring.
Uh so they come out of the employ they come out of the labor force and uh and the generations following them are smaller. Even now what's happening is uh we're we're passing through the baby boom echo meaning the children of the baby boom that cohort was I don't think it was any bigger than the baby boom uh the baby boom population.
Do you think there's because of the speed of and the acceleration of AI the like the length of careers has radically reduced because you would go to like you would go to school then you go to university you qualify as I don't know an accountant and that's like a 10 15 year process you get a job as an accountant you start working your way up but now with AI coming in these some of these jobs are being completely annihilated extremely quickly
at the same time vibe coding yeah is booming. So I think what's going to happen and this will be very healthy for productivity. We're going to have a lot more experimentation and people taking risks on themselves. Uh and maybe this idea of a corporation as we know it is going to change radically. You know crypto is enabling distributed autonomous organizations.
uh just like Bitcoin there's there's no no one governing it right uh that it's a distributed network and you know let's see how these do and how vibe co coding and AI integrate into the crypto I and I'm going to stop calling it crypto because this really should be called digital assets world which legitimizes it more crypto sounds nefarious digital assets is where you know more than young people and I'll say young people are spending more than half of their discretionary their free time online and so property ownership online is becoming more important it's it's being legitimized by the way people are spending their time
on this point of robotics and AI your your biggest position I believe is Tesla isn't it in your fund yes um but obviously Elon decided decided that he wanted to go into politics and he wanted to do oh Elon the department of government efficiency called Doge. So teaming up with Trump to try and eliminate government waste.
Now as an investor Mhm. you must not love that. Well I I have two um I have because it did impact two points of view performance of the company. Do you know I have I drive a Tesla when I go to America and it was the first time ever on the last trip to America in January. I live in LA now. Um where [clears throat] I'm driving my, you know, my cyber truck.
It's the full self-driving. It's incredible. But it was the first time ever I thought I like I could be attacked. So I probably shouldn't get a cyber truck. I should probably get something else. Cuz I heard of all these reports of people being attacked. And so it was quite interesting to hear in the earnings report which I listened to that there's been this decline in revenue um in profitability, in vehicle sales growth, etc.
in Q1 of this year which I think even Elon in that in that earnings call highlights is a consequence of him becoming political. Yes. Uh I think that surprised him. Um so I have many thoughts about this. Our government has become so bloated. It is scary and uh our indebtedness is growing. And if we want to remain the reserve currency of the world, we're at risk of of losing it.
And and on our tail is the whole digital asset world, right? So, um, government spending is taxation. It's either taxation that's going to happen immediately or will happen in the future or will happen through inflation, which is the most regressive tax at all. So I think his that the the sentiment was was right in terms of you know getting in there and seeing what technology can do for the government which is really what's happening.
I'm watching it in the FDA how they're starting to use AI. It's phenomenal what's happening. Uh so the question I usually get so I I'm very happy that ha half of the solution is understanding the problem that someone is in there with that focus and determination. He of course has said he's stepping away uh this month as a matter of fact to spend more time with his companies
which you must be happy about. Well, of course I'm happy about it, but I I have with the exception of this political dynamic, I don't think that Elon uh not being there on a day-to-day basis is what has caused the problem in the first quarter. It was much more macro. We had a negative quarter in real GDP growth in the first quarter.
So macro which is hitting everyone and the overlay of this political dynamic the news cycle thank goodness moves fast and so we'll we'll be through that I think and by the way there are news reports even this weekend saying those who were feeling about him you know as it relates to Doge and you know one party are having a change of heart because tax rates are going to come down because we're being more disciplined on the on the government spending side.
Elon's way of managing his companies is to attract the best and the brightest not only scientists, engineers, but also business people. Uh they these are people who want to solve the hardest problems in the world. um he sets a timeline that seems uh reasonable to him for milestones to occur and he doesn't interfere unless they start missing those milestones or the timing of those milestones.
Then he gets involved and that's where you hear he'll go in and he'll just fire people wholesale and you know and and you know get the program going again. And he's he's done that certainly at Tesla. He's done that at all of his companies. And so he's really troubleshooter in chief. Once he understands and has set a strategy, he then becomes troubleshooter chief.
Have you met him? Oh, yes, we did. Actually, our uh first podcast with him was in 2019. Oh, I saw that during during production hell. Yeah. And uh we were so happy. So, as you know, we have a social strategy. So, we push our research out through social media as we give it away or as we're evolving it.
And uh he liked a piece of research that Tasha Keiny had put out on autonomous back then. And I was on a phone call. I couldn't get off, but I heard this whooping and screaming through the office. And I I I thought it sounded good. It wasn't an emergency, so I I didn't have to leave that call. But I got out.
I said, "What happened, Elon?" And I said, "Okay, ask him if we can do a podcast." And we were there the next week. Oh, incredible. Yeah. What do you think of him as an entrepreneur? I think he's the Thomas Edison of our age in terms of uh in terms of
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