저자: Aaron—출연게스트:위르겐,제레미그랜섬,로버트기요사키,피터쉬프,마이클세일러 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 영상은 현재 시장이 고점 부근이며 대규모 하락(경기침체·공황)이 이어질 것이라는 경고가 주를 이루고, 결국 해법으로 비트코인 매수를 제시한다. 거시 환경: 미국 연준은 6월·7월 회의에서 금리를 0.5%p씩 최소 두 번 인상할 것으로 예상되며, 인플레이션이 최대 적으로 꼽힌다. 식품·연료 가격 급등, 전 세계 주택가격 급등, 우크라이나-러시아 전쟁 장기화, 오미크론 변이, 공급망 문제가 배경으로 언급된다. 위르겐(다보스): 고인플레이션, 에너지 위기, 식량 빈곤, 기후위기가 겹쳐 글로벌 경기침체로 이어질 수 있다고 경고. 제레미 그랜섬: 미국 시장은 2000년 닷컴 버블 정점과 같은 '초거품' 상태로 충격적으로 고평가되어 있으며, 미국이 다른 나라보다 훨씬 더 크게 하락할 것이라 주장. 다른 국가(일본, 영국, 신흥국)와 가치주가 상대적으로 저평가. 주식 전량 매도까지는 권하지 않음. 로버트 기요사키: 현재 이미 경기침체 상태이며 침체보다 훨씬 심각한 대공황(depression)이 올 것이라 주장. 금리 인상 → 주택 하락 → 경기 둔화 시나리오를 제시. 피터 쉬프: 1분기 GDP -1.4%로 침체 진입 가능성, 고인플레와 경기침체가 겹치는 깊고 긴 침체(수년 가능)를 예상. 지금의 하락은 아직 고통의 '첫 번째 충격'에 불과하다고 봄. 마이클 세일러: 비트코인은 2천억 달러 규모 채굴 네트워크와 유일한 공급량(2,100만 개)을 가진 전 세계적 가치저장 수단이며, 결국 비트코인이 해답이라고 주장. 진행자 Aaron의 전략: 초기 암호화폐 프로젝트(화이트리스트·프리세일)로 자산을 불린 뒤 비트코인에 달러코스트에버리징(정기 분할매수)으로 투자. 최근 ADA 급등 언급. 영상 말미 '비트코인을 더 사라'고 권유. 리스크: 본 영상은 투자 권유 목적이 강하며, 여러 예측이 과장되거나 검증되지 않은 주장에 기반함.
다듬은 글
i was in a debate just the other day with some of my smartest friends and here's what we were debating about are we at the bottom of a market with all like seven months of pain are we at the bottom of the market and expecting a boom or are we at the top of a market and expecting a crash okay uh the last seven months have been very painful for the stocks for effort for stocks markets and everything um so are we positioned in a particular spot where we're at the bottom or are we at the top and here is the lay of the land just kind of how i see it here biden meets with powell affirms everyone is laser focused on curbing inflation because it's the number one enemy right now you see this in different um countries food and fuel prices are soaring tipping uh countries over the edge uh the housing markets everywhere are soaring like prices of houses are just going astronomical uh in ontario canada i didn't put like a single article here because there'd be too much art ontario canada this is south florida this is australia this is california this is utah housing prices granted most of these are united states but this is also in the uk i've seen this everywhere so like housing markets are going crazy and because of that the fed plans to increase rates interest rate hikes by half but by double by uh double basis points here and it's a widely expected move the fed is set uh its targets on federal funds rate which is the interest rate that's that's based on that banks based off their interest rates off of um and he says that this is coming upcoming policy meetings in june and july so at least two more okay at least two more and they will combat uh it's the number one enemy of the fed um and then we see this like latest news of ukraine russia war how long is it going to be going on for uh people did not expect this to go on for this long a new uh covid variant omicron variants or whatever and then supply chain global uh supply chain challenges that still have yet to be overcome they they are you know working on it and so this is just the lay of the land and so in this video i'm gonna go over what the leading voices are saying in my opinion about the upcoming market don't listen to me and my name is aaron i'm just a lizard brain cowboy for the wild western cryptocurrency with a whole bunch of other cowboys uh and so if you want to follow me along in my journey through crypto and me just learning hit the subscribe button below give me a like on this video if you're feeling generous and uh join the telegram if you want to get involved with some of the other coins and the projects the crypto projects that we're talking about but i'm talking about the real estate market because or the real estate the the overall market because all investing happens in a macro environment anytime we invest in cryptocurrency doesn't matter what project it is related to bitcoin and bitcoin is related to the stock market it's a big mirror at least right now it shouldn't be it should be a hedge but it is a big mirror right now i mean it's just just watch the map here or the charts but i want to take you to some of these other leading uh names that are talking about the macro in economy and i think this is important for crypto investors to understand um you know based on you know how you feel about investing and what your time rhyme timeline should be and so the first thing we're going to go through we're going to go through about five of these guys the first one is this uh davos economic form uh and where we look at the the main dude from germany talking about his thoughts on what inflation is looking like in germany and what it looks like for the macro environment for everyone else so here we go we have high inflation in some of the countries in europe in the us and a lot of other countries we have an energy crisis you must call it this way we have food poverty and we have the climate crisis and we can't solve the problems if we are only concentrating on only one of the crisis but if none of the problems are solved i'm really afraid that we are running into a global recession with a tremendous effect not only about on climate protection and climate action but of the global stability at all so that that was him saying like hey that we are looking at a global recession that this is like economic instability uh here's the next person uh this is jeremy grantham he he's accurately called the crash of the housing market and this is what he says he's calling this a super bubble he said that like last year as everything's going to crash everything was so high it didn't everything kept on going up but he says we are actually in a bigger super bubble i mean it's one thing to predict a collapse in stock prices it's another altogether to tell investors they should sell should they as i said a year ago i think i think they'll do pretty well by selling i'm sympathetic to how difficult it it is to get out entirely out of equities and i would point out as i did last year that there are less overpriced parts of the equity market around the world in fact everywhere is less overpriced than the us the u.s is the peak of this bubble as it was in 2000 and what it meant then is what it will mean today and that is the u.s will decline a whole lot more than the rest it's also true that the value end of the spectrum as opposed to the growth end is about as cheap as it gets so if you can combine those by buying value stocks outside the us i would say particularly emerging markets but there's quite a few countries japan the uk where the markets are if they're overpriced they're only moderately overpriced the us is not moderately overpriced it is shockingly overpriced it is shockingly overpriced he's saying that the united states and everything that we have and it's shockingly overpriced to top of the market type of stuff so now we're seeing like i guess my bias but i think a lot of people's bias on like hey this is the top of the market right this is this is something that we need to be aware of like hey we are purchasing at premium rates not discounted rates one investors are supposed to be um investing in and so this is robert kiyosaki known um uh real estate guru turned like fi ultimately macroeconomics finances and so this is his take on the upcoming recession but uh that it's actually going to be a lot worse than a recession because just let me say it again let me say it again and again and again i hear it probably five times a day some guy or a young woman will come up and say my dad gave me your book and i'm going long real estate i'm going are you me do i mean after and what you're saying if interest rates go up what happens to real estate yeah down right yeah yeah exactly we're going into a depression i i agree at 100 with you people say it's a recession so we're already in a recession you're right depression's coming so he's saying a depression is coming we're already in the recession now technically a recession is two quarters right of of negative growth but he's saying that it's going to be much worse than a recession it's going to be a whole like the great depression okay and he's saying something about interest rates he's saying as interest rates go up and the fed will increase interest rates uh tremendously okay as these things go up housing will go down why because when the fed raises that interest rate it makes it more expensive for people like you and me to borrow money to borrow uh to borrow a loan to buy a house for financing of anything so like that's that's buying a mortgage for for a house or like a car loan or any of that kind of stuff that stuff will lower that will decrease and economic growth will start to will start to decrease as the fed raises more interest rates okay so he's he's expecting a recession now we're going to go to our final person here and he is uh peter schiff not a crypto guy but a still has valuable input overall for a macro um economic environment for investing and so here's what he says about uh uh an upcoming recession yeah well i think we also got some news from the government that in the first quarter gdp contracted by 1.4 so i think this will end up being the first quarter of this recession but this is going to be a very deep recession it's going to last for a long time it could be the worst recession anyone's has experienced and what's going to make it particularly problematic is going to be inflation inflation is high and it's going higher so you're going to have the combination of a very weak economy in recession and high inflation getting worse and its inflation is going to complicate the severity of the recession and make it that much more difficult for average americans to endure it so he's saying that there is a a bigger thing that's going on here it's going to be a deep recession it could last a very long time it could last years and years and years uh and so prepare for a lot of pain so what i think and personally what i'm believing is that that the the pain that we just had in the last seven months right it's starting in december and all these stocks going down even and crypto going down obviously is that we the knife just dropped it's a falling knife and it's at the very top of this long fall that it's got to go uh says peter schiff i think that uh these other voices in here are saying something of the same thing here that we are at the top of a market that has just experienced just the first fringes of pain okay it's like if you go to the doctor and you just get that you know they just strap on that little rubber thing and it's a little uncomfortable and that's painful and you're like okay i'm done with the doctors no you still got the first shot the second shot the third shot the thing that go you know like there is a lot of pain in our future in my opinion and in these guys opinions because of like just that just at the the world at large and it's it's very hard to do so what is the solution right at the end of the day there's a big problem and i think this these people side on me on my side of the debate is that we are in for a lot of pain incoming crash like for and who knows for how long what is the solution well i'm going to turn to mr michael saylor for that one and you know me uh you're on this channel because it's of crypto and and probably more so bitcoin i love the fact that there is an actual solution of this there's a whole financial matrix that's a problem where someone has the nucleus the the absolute power the nucleus of power to just print money right inflation is causing a lot of this pain and so here is uh one of those those what i think would be the solution what i think a lot of people uh think is the solution as well so first of all everybody needs a certain thing in a very uncertain world and if you look at what bitcoin is it's it's a network of 20 billion dollars worth of mining hardware burning billions of dollars of energy a year very dis uh decentralized distributed all around the world it took us 13 years to get here there's only one bitcoin and if you go to davos everybody's talking about the need for a new global money how am i going to store my value and they're they're debating is it gold is it silver what is it and obviously bitcoin is the answer so we have a solution to the world's problem i think it's just a matter of of uh taking a seat and uh letting things play out so he's saying that hey look it's about it's just a matter of time until people start to realize like bitcoin is the answer now he doesn't go into it uh in this particular segment that i've chosen but he goes into it a very you know extensively in many other videos so i suggest that you watch a lot of them look it's it's the fact that these rising like in this rising inflation is pricing a lot of people out and then combating with like uh the the the interest rates to combat with that we're stuck in this like little tug of war and these these things that these games that these people are playing why don't we just unplug from it all for me my strategy is to to all roads lead back to bitcoin i'm in cryptocurrency i'm in these uh these projects very early good uh solid projects with good teams and i'm trying to get on whitelist i'm trying to get in pre-sales i'm trying to get all that so that i could multiply my money and then buy and dollar cash cost average into bitcoin as often as possible now to do that strategy you need a lot of time and research you know a lot of connections stuff that i'm trying to bring to you guys i'm trying to do giveaways whitelist give all that kind of stuff get information uh but ultimately if you're not in it like that i'm just trying to buy more bitcoin honestly like uh right now that my strategy is like i said get into these early projects and multiplying my money quickly and get into uh bitcoin i also like ada ada i saw a big pump in the last uh couple days for that so if you follow me along on that that's been good and that's mostly because of cnft's my interest in cnfts that's just some degen stuff i like anyway guys um i'm kind of rambling here but here's the deal and you and by the way if you like cnfts later tonight i'm doing a live i do a live on cnfts every tuesday night with a lot of bunch of guys who are bigger brain than me in this space but here's the thing uh in relation to the video guys buy some more bitcoin anyways guys thanks very much for watching i'll see you guys next
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