저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 투자자 Vijay Kedia의 투자 철학 소개. 성장 산업(sunrise)에 투자하고 사양 산업(sunset)에서는 매도하라는 원칙과, 소형주 중심·경영진 경험 12~15년·야망·시장 잠재력을 본 'SMILE' 공식을 설명. 개별 종목이나 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
원문은 힌디어가 아니라 영어 자막이므로, 영어 그대로 다듬어 드리겠습니다. 음성인식 오류(Kidiya→Kedia 등 표기 혼재)는 화자 이름 표기를 Vijay Kedia로 통일했습니다.
There was a time when one of the biggest investors in India, Vijay Kedia, didn't even have ₹1 to buy milk for his child. Then came a day when he bought a major block of shares in a milk company and gifted it to his wife, and today his net worth is ₹1,400 crore. There was one incident where I didn't even have ₹1 to buy a box of Lactogen milk to feed my son. In between, I was offered a bulk of shares in a dairy company that dealt in milk products, and that was my reward for it.
The best thing about Vijay Kedia sir is that he openly shares his strategy and formula on public platforms. So today we'll learn about two secret formulas of Mr. Vijay Kedia that helped him create such huge wealth, which he also talks about many times in his interviews.
The first formula is simple. As I've said, stay invested in sunrise industries at any cost, and stay out of sunset industries at any cost. When I see, and when I feel, that the sun is setting on a sector, that's the time I exit the stock. If I find that some management is doing something fishy, something they shouldn't be doing, or if their focus changes, I sell the shares. And if the shares become so expensive that they're irresistible, I sell too. Or if I find a better story, I may exit a sunrise stock as well. Timing doesn't matter. Whether my stock has already gone up 10x or 20x is not the criterion. But if I find a better story, I'll move.
Vijay Kedia sir says that if you want to create huge wealth in the stock market, you should always invest in sunrise industries, meaning the industries that are operating now or have a chance of doing well in the future. Because all industries operate in cycles, and you should exit the industries that aren't doing well now and have no chance of doing well in the near future. Their trend has changed.
The second formula is the SMILE formula. Vijay Kedia sir has made all his investments so far using the SMILE formula and created wealth worth ₹1,400 crore. SMILE, of course, is my formula. I didn't know earlier that I was working on SMILE; I learned about it late. About ten years ago, or seven years ago, I realized that the pattern I was following fell under the SMILE formula.
**S – Small in size.** I generally invest in small caps and mid caps, particularly within a sector. I usually choose the smallest company in the sector, or the third or fourth. There's no hard and fast rule for choosing the third or fourth, but I choose the smallest because if an elephant moves, it takes time, but a smaller cheetah can run faster. I feel the chances of multiplication are higher in mid-cap companies, which can go 50x or 100x. So I choose small in size. Vijay Kedia invests in companies that are very small in market capitalization. He first finds the industry he wants to invest in, then invests in one of the three or four smallest companies in that industry. I'm always watching for changes in the sector. You can call it a bottom-up approach: first I like the sector, then I find the smallest company in it. Usually, every sector has only four or five companies, so I look for the one that's smaller in size. If I like the company, and especially if I like the management, then management is the first criterion. If I like it, I'll buy in a big way, meaning with whatever money I have at that point.
Look at TCS: its market cap is roughly ₹15 lakh crore, and it would have to grow 100,000 times to be equal to... well, that's difficult. But if a company is good, it can easily become 10 to 20 times. Think of it this way: if Company A's market cap is ₹1,000 crore and Company B's is ₹1 lakh crore, Company A can easily grow to ₹1 lakh crore, and your money becomes 10x. Company B, with a market cap of ₹1 lakh crore, can go up at most to ₹2 or ₹3 lakh crore, and it will be very difficult for your money to become 2x or 3x. A company with a small market cap has a lot of room to grow. A company with a big market cap has less room, its business is already widely spread, and it's very hard to expand further.
**M – Medium in experience.** Because the responsibility for everything depends on management, I look for management with at least 15 years of experience running the company. In 15 years, it must have fallen two or three times, seen two or three recessions, seen slowdowns and various kinds of tragedies, and fallen so hard that a person learns only by falling. I have a quote for this: we learn when we are wrong, not when we are right. When we're right, we think we're kings, and we don't learn. So in 15 years, management must have seen two or three such cycles and understood how to run the company properly. In a way, a big, fully proof company is a recession-proof company. Vijay Kedia invests in companies whose management has at least 12 to 15 years of experience, because in that period management has seen everything: boom, recession, crisis, and has dealt with all of it. If, even after that, its performance is good, it means management can easily tackle whatever problems come in the future. If management isn't good, then no matter how good the industry or the company is, you will definitely lose money there.
**I – Large in aspiration.** Management needs a fire inside. The person should feel: today I've grown from ₹100 crore to ₹500 crore, and I want to go from ₹500 crore to ₹2,000 crore. That desire to keep moving ahead is essential, because if management doesn't become a billionaire, we as shareholders won't become millionaires. There should be a desire to become big. If the company is worth ₹100 crore, its target should be ₹1,000 crore, then ₹50,000 crore, then ₹1 lakh crore. Vijay Kedia says you'll only become a millionaire if the management becomes a billionaire.
**L – Large market potential.** No matter how good the management is, if the sector has little potential and its market size is small, the company can only increase its market share up to a limit, and after that nothing much can happen. If the company is worth ₹500 crore and the whole sector is ₹10,000 crore, the company can only grow so far. At the very least, if the company is worth ₹100 crore, the market size of its industry should be at least ₹50,000 crore to ₹1 lakh crore. Then the company has plenty of opportunity to multiply money.
**E – Extra large market potential.** The final E means extra large market potential. No matter how much fire management has, how honest it is, or how well it runs the company, if the sector's potential is very small, there's not much room to grow. For example, if a product's market size is ₹1,000 crore, there's not much ocean for it to swim in. It should be at least ₹5,000 crore or ₹2 lakh crore, and if it's sitting at ₹5 lakh crore today, then there's a whole ocean to swim in. So extra large market potential matters too.
That's the SMILE formula, and it's what I've followed in my own life.
If you've made it this far in the video, I have a request: please like, share, and comment. This helps retail investors, people like you and me, and those who keep losing their hard-earned money just by watching buy-sell-F&O videos, spread financial awareness and financial knowledge.
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