저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 워런 버핏의 과거 인터뷰를 소개하며 가치투자 원칙을 설명하고, 특정 종목이나 자산의 가격 전망은 다루지 않음. 버핏의 투자 원칙: 제1원칙은 손실을 피하는 것, 제2원칙은 제1원칙을 잊지 않는 것. 싸게 사면 손실 가능성이 낮다는 주장. 투자자 기질: 지능보다 기질이 중요하며, 군중과 반대로 가거나 따르지 않는 안정된 성격이 필요하다는 주장. 정답은 다수의 동의가 아니라 사실과 추론의 정확성에 달림. 가격과 가치: 주식은 사업의 일부이며, 가격보다 사업 가치를 먼저 평가하고 나중에 가격을 확인해야 한다는 주장. 역량 범위(circle of competence): 이해하는 사업에만 투자하고, 기술주(IBM 등)는 이해하지 못해 보유하지 않았다는 설명. 이후 애플 보유 사례를 언급하며 역량 범위는 시간에 따라 확장 가능하다고 해석. 인내: 던질 공이 없으면 치지 않고 기다리는 것이 중요하며, 6개월~2년 동안 매매하지 않을 수도 있다는 주장. 기관투자자는 지루함과 고객 압박을 견디기 어렵다고 설명. 리스크/조건: 학계의 요일·선거연도 등 변수 분석은 사업 투자 관점에서 의미가 없다는 비판. 출연자 전망: 종목·자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
Hey friends, this is FI here. Welcome back to another amazing video. This time I thought let's do something really different. I need about 10 to 15 minutes of your time at most. What we're going to do is watch one of Warren Buffett's very first interviews, okay? All of us know Warren Buffett. He's one of the greatest investors of all time, so I call him Warren Buffett. We not only learn about investing from him, we also get to know a lot of other things about life.
So are you guys ready? If you are, let's watch it together. The one simple requirement is that you have a pen or pencil and a sheet of paper where you can write down a few notes. If you don't have any of that right now, just pause this video, bring it, sit down, and then watch. Let's try to watch it to the end, make some notes, and then maybe I'll set a small homework exercise for all of us. That should work out really well. All right, let's begin.
Here we go. With a more secular approach, others have also been very successful. Let's take Warren Buffett of Omaha, Nebraska. If you had put ten thousand dollars into his company, Berkshire Hathaway, in 1965, you would have one million today. Warren was a chapter in my 1972 book, Supermoney, so I've known him a long time. He learned his trade under Ben Graham, the original dean of security analysis at Columbia University. I don't think Warren has ever been on television until this interview, and he has certainly never courted publicity. But recently he got a lot of it when he emerged as the key figure in the takeover of ABC by Capital Cities. Warren will be the largest shareholder of the new company, and his own net worth is now far in excess of 500 million dollars. When I spoke with him last fall in his office in Omaha, his investment style seemed perfectly simple. The first rule of investment is don't lose. The second rule of investment is don't forget the first rule, and that's all the rules there are. I mean, if you buy things for far below what they're worth, and you buy a group of them, you basically don't lose money.
Lauren, what do you consider the most important quality for an investment manager? It's a temperamental quality, not an intellectual quality. You don't need tons of IQ in this business. You have to have enough IQ to get from here to downtown Omaha, but you do not have to be able to play three-dimensional chess or be in the top leagues of bridge or something of the sort. You need a stable personality, and a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor from being against the crowd. This is not a business where you take polls. Ben Graham would say you're not right or wrong because a thousand people agree with you, and you're not right or wrong because a thousand people disagree with you. You're right because your facts and your reasoning are right.
Warren, what do you do that's different from ninety percent of the money managers in the market? Most professional investors focus on what the stock is likely to do in the next year. There are all kinds of arcane methods for approaching that, but they do not really think of themselves as owning a piece of a business. The real test of whether you're investing from a value standpoint is whether you care if the stock market is open tomorrow. If you're making a good investment in a security, it shouldn't bother you if they close the stock market for five years. All the ticker tells me is the price, and I can look at the price occasionally to see whether it's outlandishly cheap or outlandishly high. But prices don't tell me anything about a business. Business figures themselves tell me something about a business, but the price of a stock doesn't. I would rather value a stock or a business first, without even knowing the price, so that I'm not influenced by the price in establishing my valuation. Then I look at the price later to see whether it's way out of line with my value.
Wow, it's amazing to listen to this. As investors, we always focus on the price, including me. So many times we look at the price and get influenced by its movements. Warren clearly tells us that the moment we look at a business as a piece of a business we own, it doesn't matter whether the crowd agrees with us or disagrees, because then we can take an independent view. So I think what he's saying is value versus price. Amazing.
Buffett chose to stay in Omaha, Nebraska, where corn grows just minutes from downtown. Omaha is a nice town, but nobody claims it's a world financial center. Here the only thundering herd is actually on four feet. Don't you find Omaha a little bit off the beaten track for the investment world? Well, believe it or not, we get mail here, we get periodicals, and we get all the facts needed to make decisions. And unlike Wall Street, you'll notice we don't have fifty people coming up and whispering in our ear that we should be doing this or that this afternoon. You appreciate the lack of stimulation? I like the lack of stimulation. We get facts here, not stimulation. How can you stay away from Wall Street? Well, if I were on Wall Street, I'd probably be a lot poorer. You get overstimulated on Wall Street, you hear lots of things, and you may shorten your focus. A short focus is not conducive to long profits. Here I can just focus on what businesses are worth. I don't need to be in Washington to figure out what the Washington Post is worth, and I don't need to be in New York to figure out what some other company is worth. It's simply an intellectual process, and the less static there is in that intellectual process, the better off you are. What is the intellectual process? It's defining your area of competence, valuing businesses, and then, within that area of competence, finding whatever sells at the cheapest price in relation to value.
You know, one thing I could take away from this is that Omaha was a very small town. Most of us are in small cities or small towns, right? But today we have information from everywhere. We have annual reports and all the information we need. Isn't it much easier for us to study wherever we are, in whichever part of the world, and understand the business? That's number one. Second, he says that if he were on Wall Street, he'd probably be poorer. If I relate that to today's context, we're living in the age of social media, and there's so much noise. The more noise there is, the more we act. So maybe we need to be inactive, shut out the noise, filter it, and then we can become better investors.
There are all kinds of things I'm not competent to value, but there are a few I am confident about. Have you ever bought a technology company? No, I really haven't. In thirty years of investing, not one. I haven't understood any of them. So you've never owned, for example, IBM? A marvelous company, a sensational company, but I haven't owned IBM.
This was probably three and a half decades ago. It's amazing that Warren is now one of the large shareholders of a technology company called Apple. That clearly shows there's nothing wrong with increasing our circle of competence over time. That's one of my biggest takeaways: the circle of competence can be small at first, but over the years we can slowly expand it, and we can also figure out which sectors really don't fit in our circle.
Here is this technological revolution going on, and you're not going to be a participant. Going right past me, is that all right with you? It's okay with me. I don't have to make money in every game. I don't know what cocoa beans are going to do. There are all kinds of things I don't know about, and that may be too bad, but why should I know all about them? I haven't worked that hard on them.
In the securities business, every day you have thousands of major American corporations offered to you at a price that changes daily, and you don't have to make any decisions. Nothing is forced upon you. There are no called strikes in this business. The pitcher just stands there and throws balls at you. If you're playing real baseball and the ball is between the knees and the shoulders, you either swing or you get a strike called on you. But in the securities business, you sit there, and they throw you Steel at 25 and General Motors at 68. You don't have to swing at any of them. They may be wonderful pitches to swing at, but if you don't know enough, you don't have to swing. You can sit there and watch thousands of pitches and finally get one right where you want it, something you understand, and then you swing.
So you might not swing for six months. You might not swing for two years. Isn't that boring? It would bore most people, and boredom is certainly a problem for most professional money managers. If they try to sit out an inning or two, not only do they get antsy, but their clients start yelling from the stands, "Swing, you bum!" That's very tough for people to do.
Lauren, you know, it's so awesome that today we have so many listed companies, and many times what happens is we own a stock, and all the other stocks are running. How many of you have experienced that? I think most of us have. It's so awesome that a person like Warren Buffett swings so rarely. I think only a true owner can really do that. We can't own all the businesses in the world. We just want some good businesses and wait for them to perform at some point. But the earnings are so key.
OK, that's my approach. It seems so simple. Why doesn't everybody do it? Well, I think partly because it is so simple. Academics, for example, focus on all kinds of variables. Partly because academics, you mean professors? Yeah. The data is in business school, sure, and the data is there, so they focus on whether you're better off buying stocks on Tuesday and selling on Friday, or buying in election years and selling in other years, or buying small companies. There are all these variables because the data are there, and they learn how to manipulate data. As a friend of mine says, to a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Once you have these skills, you're just dying to use them in some way, but they aren't important. If I were being asked to participate in a business opportunity, would it make any difference to me whether I bought it on a Tuesday or Saturday, or in an election year? That's not what a businessman thinks about when buying businesses. So why think about it when buying stocks, because stocks are just pieces of a business?
Welcome back. I thought this was fun to watch. Just before you end the video, I thought it would be nice if all of us, as homework, could put down our comments on this particular video. What are our biggest learnings? If you can write them down, I'll write my learnings too. That's something I'd love to do. As long-term investors, I think it's amazing to own a business rather than looking at the price every single day. That has been one of my biggest takeaways here.
So friends, if you think this kind of video brought some value, I can do more of them, where we watch something together and then have a heart-to-heart connection over the piece. If you really liked this video, please give it a like, because the moment you press that button, I think the YouTube algorithm makes sure a lot of other people can watch it and benefit too. I'll be waiting for your comments. My email is always open. It'll be in the description. Send me any thoughts you have. No stock-specific stuff and no recommendations, just pure discussion, and we'll have a great time together. All right, see you next time. Take care, bye.
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