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hello youtube justin here in this video we're going to talk about the amazon 20-1 split which was announced last night and uh in addition to that we're also going to talk about uh everything related to the markets and including cpi that's coming in at a 40-year high christine lagarde is also speaking and giving us a 2022 to 2024 projection for inflation and for economic growth and uh there's a lot for us to go through so let's jump straight in and see what we get um we're going to do our normal part of the show in a couple of minutes here we're just going to talk about what is relevant to the market right now and that is amazon so let's just look at the headlines here that came out amazon announces 20 to one stock split 10 billion stock buyback and uh the reason why this is particularly notable is because it's the first split since 1999 and the fourth since uh amazon went uh sorry went public in 1997.
so what's interesting about this is just uh the dates um i've been talking about 2000 quite a bit uh here we are we're at 2000 who else is split apple google uh tesla nvidia um amazon finally joined everyone's been looking at this and uh the reaction overnight uh for amazon was pretty bullish so we can see here that amazon is still holding roughly 3.6 gains overnight but it was over 3 000 which means that people took this as a very bullish indicator um let's see what happens here for the cash market and um the companies also authorized a stock buyback of 10 billion dollars and uh what we talked about before was that again andy jassy who is now the chief executive officer or ceo of amazon needed to have some uh some arrows in his quiver so that uh when and if the stock stinks because right now it does uh but he has these options because um jeff bezos uh announcing this would not have had the same effect that if andy did remembering that andy was the the chief of aws for amazon web services and um he is likely going to be leading the growth engine of the company going forward um the timing seems pretty good too because the stock stinks we look at what's happened in the last 30 days or the last one month and the stock is down by 11 so this will make it a little bit less red but that's still uh still a tough pill to swallow so if you're feeling that uh this is it for amazon it's finally gonna go to the promise line at two new all-time highs i don't know i would be a little bit skeptical um well actually if i can find that mike mirovini uh tweet that i saw yesterday um because uh he was talking about how um again mike minovini is a market wizard i talked about this on our private stream yesterday but um what i want to talk about is going to be actually how a stock can normally uh make its biggest moves after it gets to all-time highs so again a little bit of a sidetrack here but again this is mike minovini uh from the book market wizards from jack schweiger and uh here we're just going to read this really fast to try to understand what's happening here if you're like oh my god i have to have to have to buy amazon all the big gains on the stock happened a new new high ground a stock cannot make a huge move without making new highs in between you uh in between you are losing money or losing time uh yes um i've been actively trading amazon for about the last uh couple of months maybe the last six months but i waited for a very long time and uh patience wears thin and when you're like oh my god it was a 3000 and now it's not it can be very difficult for your psychology to keep holding on because you have opportunity cost so again looking right here if you're a long-term investor in amazon and bottom fishing is not only unnecessary it's not when the big money is made long term this guy knows what he's doing um here he's giving us a chart of mnst and you can just note that once it finally gets to all-time highs which is at the dotted line right here it goes it goes from roughly roughly 50 cents to 20 bucks and if we look back in time here at amazon uh again when it finally got the blue sky breakouts you don't even see it if we go to a log scale now we can see that oh yes when it finally got to new all time highs back tested it went from 100 to 3 000.
oh goodness um the reason why that matters is because when we look here at amazon it's stuck in a box so we can note here that it's stuck in a box of sideways consolidation um right so we can just note here that we have just a range um it's not really going anywhere we can also have a look over here at amazon i had this box drawn going back to when i was investing in it the lows got blown out so um the stock is actually no longer trending up we have a trend line here it's been lost it's not going up anymore it was doing a whole bunch of nothing and now it's compressing um there's a few reasons why it's compressing one of the reasons being that um right jeff bezos sold a whole bunch of stock and then so did his ex-wife um right she's selling billions like all the time jeff bezos is buying yachts um i forget his wife's name right now she was donating to charities uh billions of dollars so i think that um if we listen to mike minovini um again if you're a long-term investor in amazon um it's very similar to like what happened on earnings and if we have a look here again gaps almost always get filled so on this move right here we can note that this is when earnings happen this is the day where uh facebook went down and then amazon went up and it added on about a hundred bill billion dollars in market cap and um again everyone's like oh my god that's it it's never gonna go back down below three thousand and here we are that gap got filled so um this range right here which was the gap it got filled um it took a while uh by a while i'm talking here about it took us about right 21 days roughly three weeks to fill it so this hole that we're gonna have right here um whether it gets filled today or later i don't know but i would say that the stock cannot safely go higher until this zone actually gets back tested back here to about 2800 it's about uh 100 points slower it's not really that big of a move and in addition to that the stock is actually not making highs let alone new all-time highs high lower high lower high lower high lower high lower high lower high lower high lower high and we got low low low lowest so i don't know what the stock's going to do to be honest i am super bullish on amazon and it's one of my favorite companies ever but let's continue the story here uh people are even arguing with the fact that a stock has to make you highs to make a huge move lol and you wonder why so few are super performers ego and ignorance runs rampant let's read that one more time because again if you're listening to what i'm saying i am a big amazon bull i've bought more stuff from amazon than i have from apple that i have from any other company i've spent tens of thousands of dollars on amazon i've been wanting to be an investor for the long term but um we have to make sure we understand what part of the cycle and what pattern we're buying so let's read this again one more time here and if you agree with me or you think this guy is a total idiot drop me a comment on the video after the fact uh people are even arguing with the fact that this talk has to make new highs to make a huge move and you wonder why so few are super performers ego ego and ignorance runs rampant so maybe what i could do is i could walk you through my trade on amazon i managed to make a couple of bucks not all that much but it was a long trade for me once we started getting back below the 50 i started buying it i think as we started getting over the 50ma here so we started getting over the 50ma right bounce bounce bounce going into earnings look good um and then it didn't look good right we started making those lower highs setting up a head and shoulders pattern here uh we went below the 50ma i stopped out um i traded it a few times and i got stopped out if i was still in the stock i would probably be red i would be less red with this gap up but there might be some false hope so for me um what i would really like to see would be what we had before on amazon so if you're going to buy this thing or if you're super bullish on it long term just remember what i showed you briefly before if amazon's going to expand to a new level let it first of all break to new all-time highs and look here too right there's our first test our second test our third test is the breakout so like we talked about yesterday on bitcoin and gold when the stock actually does multiple tests at the same area runs one test two tests three tests boom it's out so the reason why this matters is because look back to here one two three tops fail here we get our third top again this happens uh almost 10 years later um do you want to hold on to amazon for 10 years and hope you get your money back and are you going to be more willing to sell the first rep after you get your money back or are you going to hold on for the long term that's the really big question here so in terms of where we are now on amazon let it make a new all-time high let it ideally backtest why it's usually going to back test this is the monthly chart so even after it broke out it took uh it took an extra nine ten months to back test the area and then to make a new all-time high it took about a year so this means that amazon's likely not going to move to a new level fast this stock split is likely going to give it a short term bump but when the split actually happens um it's likely going to be faded so um we can note that uh goldman sachs is also one of the uh top bowls on amazon calling it one of the top 22 picks and i would wait until the stock gets to minimum 3 800 ideally back tests and then we can make money between 37 and 5 000 maybe even to 10 but to try to make this thousand points right here i don't know that that is the best risk reward so again not trying to burst your bubble if you're bullish on amazon i'm right there with you um i just want to see see you do a little bit more and um it's hard to argue that amazon is one of the top performers of this year but we mentioned before on the weekend deep dives as well is that the leaders of yesterday most of them are still the leaders of tomorrow however facebook and amazon are falling to the wayside and we say that because even before this news came out they are some of the only stocks that on a weekly perspective they are below the 50 weekly moving average that is going to be our yellow line right here so the reason why that matters is because apple is still above even with the price declines still above they look at tesla still above we look at nvidia still above and all of these stocks have had splits so if splitting is not the catalyst for the stock to go higher what's missing there's something missing what is it i don't know um so as we go forward again that's a lot on amazon video videos already about 11 minutes here let's move forward so other key data that we have today includes core cpi actually coming in in line for the first time remembering that i believe this data is as of uh like february 23rd 22nd sorry and then the invasion in europe happened on february 23rd so these numbers here do not reflect the current price spike that we saw in oil which means that um numbers are going to get worse they're not going to get better inline is nice however um we also had christine legard speaking this morning and giving us some pretty nasty headlines um those nasty headlines include that we're heading into a stagflation environment um what that means is that we're going to be seeing lower growth and higher inflation than we did before so here she's giving us 2022 to 2024 gdp growth projections gdp means gross domestic product it basically means how fast your economy is growing so she's revised it lower for 2022 uh to 3.7 from 4.2 she's speaking right now right right now too by the way might be more headlines across um she sees 20 23 coming in at 2.8 versus 2.9 and then for 2024 we start to level back off at 1.6 looking forward to the other data she sees again 2022 inflation booming to 5.1 versus 3.2 um again this is only back in december so right four months ago they're like yes three no they're like oh five um ecb sees 2023 inflation at 2.1 versus 1.8 and for 2024 roughly back in line at 1.9 versus 1.8 because we're going to be normalizing moving away from russia and hopefully getting some kind of normal moving forward to the american markets uh we do have some data out as well including initial jobless claims coming with a slight miss and again that core cpi coming in right in line um it doesn't take lower from the previous month so if we did not get this invasion this might have been the report where we're saying that this is it it's the peak why because on a month over month even though we're in line we're lower than the previous period which means that until this invasion um we were actually starting again 0.1 percent trending down but that's likely going to fizzle out we can look here as well and just note that again us inflation hits fresh 40 year high of 7.9 before the oil spike so things are likely going to get worse not better ecb surprises with faster stimulus exit amid conflict in europe which means that they did not take the sta sorry the the option to um kick the can again they're actually pressing forward because um europe has less options in america and efficient is rampant there they can't afford to wait longer they have to move um that's pretty much the biggest events for today and then as we move forward to the charts let's have a quick look here um what i'll say actually is let's start with qqq and the reason why i want to start with qqq for about two more minutes here is just because um we had the apple event uh that came out uh i believe was on tuesday and then we got a stock flip from amazon those are two of the three biggest companies ever um they're the biggest companies in america they're the biggest companies in the world they're the biggest components of qqq they're the biggest components of spy again including microsoft so if we don't get a lift today uh when inflation is in line and these two companies delivered uh huge huge huge events everyone's been talking about the apple uh lower cost iphone it got delivered 5g and then everyone's been talking about that amazon split oh that's the catalyst let's see it that's what i want to see so if qqq is truly bullish um right now in the pre-market we're sitting here at about uh 3 30 so we're about five points too low um what i would note here is that when we normally have aim again this is only it's only wednesday so we have to see where this candle is going to close out on friday but um if we look here uh normally when we have a hammer it's either followed with continuation or an immediate reversal so if this hammer is going to turn into a bullish uh pattern what we need to see is for it to hold at least the previous low at 334 92 roughly 335 into friday and then bull pivot to break this downtrend and make progress up here towards our yellow line which is the 50 weekly if we can't do that it might turn into a fizzle where we revisit those lows again why there's been no progress in europe russia and ukraine are fighting again they're gonna have more talks but it's a whole bunch of nothing it's a nothing burger um what i would also note um is just looking at nq and the reason why i say this is because this chart looks worse we can see here that even connecting the lows we're having a really hard time holding on lastly what i would note what we mentioned before is that this was a massive dead cat bounce however what we failed to do is to make a fresh high so let's delete everything really fast and let's redo this so here here we go we got high lower high lower high level high lower high that's it um we failed to make a higher high versus our march 7th high here at eight about nine here we got eighteen eight thirteen eight two one it's close but no cigar and then versus uh yesterday versus today we're off by about another uh 500 points which tells me that we took out the relative low but that's it that's all the bulls had they didn't have enough juice for us to actually take out the high so for me by definition that is a dead cat bounce um and the reason why it matters is because not only is qqq in trouble uh we look over here at spy the candle looks almost identical and we've been spending a lot of time hovering around this 425 to 430 area and just remembering that anything below 432 on a weekly closing basis would be the first time we are closing a friday out in correction territory um if you're not sure what that means that it would be the first time this year despite all the turbulence we've had that we're actually closing in correction territory that scares me because uh generally speaking when we have a level penetrated and then revisit it it usually self-fulfills to not only go to where we are but to go lower oops thank you lisa today's thursday sorry about that um here we go uh right i got dyslexia i apologize i'm looking forward here to our key dates um today was the big day right eu leader summit cpi ecb rate decision initial doubles claims so between today eu leader summit and tomorrow eu leader summit we're likely going to get some kind of news whether it's good or bad i don't know but as of right now europe seems to be very synchronized ready for movement and whatever trend is established today into lunch is likely going to be what fulfills into friday because the only other major headline we have is going to be the eu leader summit 2.0 meaning tomorrow we're likely going to see headlines out of that in terms of what they're going to want to do for um actually uh uh either pressing harder on russia and again like 300 plus companies the biggest ones in the world they're all gone they're saying screw you and uh finally let's just look at the dax for a template yep there's the puke so we're down by three percent three percent here tight inside bar uh lower high higher low um the gap's not quite filled yet so if uh the dax reversed roughly half of its boom from the day before um if you look over here to es um as of right now we've already puked up about half the move so we're roughly on track for uh we went up by about 3.5 percent and now we're holding here at about 1.7 it's almost exactly half so we don't have to go lower um so let me just bring my face up again here and i'm sorry if the camera's a little bit blurry sometimes right i'm using a mac and i can't change the settings on this thing i can only do that on a pc um so what i would just note here is that we don't have to go lower um technically speaking below 425 and 427 is not good uh getting back below 421 is worse it means the bears are scoring another touchdown after already scoring multiple touchdowns and uh i'm not gonna try to guess where we go today um we got a big move down we got a big move back up and uh we got to see how the price action fulfills today with that said i wish all the best of luck and if you want to see my bear thesis again go back and watch the 2022 bear market video if not this weekend i provided a glimmer of hope where we could potentially see this crash be over sooner than later we're not going to know that for sure though until we get to the end of march and actually open april thank you for watching we'll see you tomorrow
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