저자: BixWeir · 외국인
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결론: 레포(RePo) 시장 자금경색으로 JP모건과 은행권이 연준 구제금융에 의존하고 있으며, 시스템 붕괴 위험을 경고하는 영상. 레포 시장 상황: 연준 레포 운용 규모가 하루 800억 달러였고 누적 2,020억 달러로 확대, 주말 내 3,000억 달러 돌파를 예상. 금요일부터 국채 매입(QE) 시작, 월 600억 달러 T-bill 매입 언급. 제이미 다이먼 발언 비판: 2019년 3분기 실적발표에서 연준 규제 때문에 레포 시장에 자금을 공급하지 못했다고 주장. 진행자는 JP모건이 파생상품 약 56조 달러를 보유하고 현금 1,200억 달러로 규제 한계를 탓한다고 비판하며, JP모건이 레포 최대 차입자 중 하나라고 주장. 미중 무역/홍콩 이슈: 1단계 무역합의 불확실성 확대, 미 하원의 홍콩 관련 법안 통과, 중국의 반발과 농산물 구매 확대 합의 불확실성 언급. 정치/시장 기타: 트럼프 재임 시 대공황급 폭락 가능성 언급 및 민주당 집권 관련 발언, 파운드화 등 브렉시트 헤드라인에 따른 변동성 언급. 진행자 개인 홍보: 리타 코인(라이트코인 관련) 이벤트 참가 안내 및 토큰 배포 홍보.
다듬은 글
good morning good morning big square Roderick ah what's your morning one of Z's your sip of coffee sorry Tee tee day three of the cleanse hope you guys are doing well yeah this is the easy one so far easy nine days big freakin deal I do want to make a clarification yesterday when I was talking in the park about the litecoin rhoda rooder party in Las Vegas I said the 29th it is the 27th Sunday the 27th the day before the litecoin summit which island is on the 28th and 29th just to be clear and I'll be sending out information on that this week to all the people who signed up if you want to go it cost one light coin it's in Vegas at the Cosmopolitan starting at 1 going till about 10:00 9:30 10:00 all kinds of great things lined up me Bitcoin Ben and I are gonna have a debate on whether or not they'll be able to clap a collapse economic collapse which will be really fun and he's on vacation right now so we can't iron out the details but that is in the works and of course the band will be playing the crypto Knights we we don't have a name we're thinking the crypto nights but yeah dick all garden Jason at 4:00 it's gonna be a blast all-day event so yeah you want to go send me an email pics at Rotorua Calm I'll send you the info cost one light coin to go alright let's talk about the insanity in the markets right now insanity continues the repo was huge one of the biggest 80 billion 80 billion counted 80 billion today but that's not total because there's still some rolling over the total has jumped back over 200 billion so it's two hundred and two billion right now that the bank's needed to bail themselves out today and that is a very big number but I think it's going to over three hundred by the end of the week why do I say that you everybody said yeah QE is gonna start in November no it's starting tomorrow keep an eye on this US Treasury security operations this is the flat-out purchases this isn't loans this is when they buy Treasury securities from the banks the banks can't lend them to each other because they're all toxic because they have multiple owners but the Fed is the sucker of last resort because they print money out of thin air but look at we had a jump today or yesterday in the offers versus the amount accepted now it's usually over subscribed but this is a large oversubscription 12 billion in offers and only 1.6 accepted if you go but I went back to the past six months and they're all looking like this four point nine billion offered four hundred million accepted four point nine one point six accepted five point eight two point two except they're all well below double digits and all of a sudden we have a bump and we have a bump right here so something will come out today probably a little more so the number has jumped it's almost tripled to twelve point three looking for purchases from the Fed and it was only one point six I expect it to jump today over again in the in the over ten billion range and then a little more accept it and then tomorrow I believe they start the the bigger purchases the Q's so I'll keep you informed all that gets tacked on to the overnight bailouts and here's something really interesting like I said Jamie Dimon is the worst poker has the worst poker face on planet Earth in his conference call or a discussion he goes on to say and the question in the article is why didn't Jimmy Dimon step in on the repo just asked the Fed JP Morgan CEO cites pesky limitations for preventing the banks help when short-term rates went haywire so he's saying oh he could have come in and helped but you have to keep a certain amount of money in the bank you can't he can't go ahead and use it well yeah you you do have to keep a certain amount of money in your bank Jamie Dimon you should be keeping a lot more the fractional reserve but he doesn't like the new rules that what he's not saying here is he's the one borrowing the money along with others but it is JP Morgan I would I would assume I absolutely believe this to be true they're one of the largest buyers of these repos why because they have massive derivatives and they're all going haywire here's the article if JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon had his way he would be happy he would have happily lent money into the repo market last month to help offset a spike in short-term interest rates if it weren't for those meddling regulators that is when the head of the US biggest bank was asked about the current crisis in short term funding markets during the third quarter earnings call he wasted no time in citing a range of limitations on how JP Morgan deploys its cash at the Fed quote now this is Jamie Dimon at his conference call we have a checking account the Fed with a certain amount of cash in it last year we had more cash than we needed from regulatory requirements he didn't say this year so repo rates went up we went from the checking account which was paying io ER in two repos obviously makes sense you make more money now the cash in the account which is still huge mind you one point 120 billion wha wait a minute he has 120 billion cash in the account but he has 56 trillion in derivatives and he has massive amount on loan it's a bank 120 billion is nothing as far as reserves it's 120 billion in the morning the cash we believe is required under resolution recovery and liquidity stress testing therefore we could not deploy it into the repo market which we would have been happy to do it's up to regulators to decide if they want to recalibrate the kind of liquidity they expect us to keep in that account I think it's a lot of banks were in the same position by the way what he doesn't say is he was the one borrowing because they capped what he could keep you know he had to have a minimum amount in that account and he didn't have enough he had to go out and borrow we believe the requirement for that CL AR and resolution and recovery is that we need enough in that account so if there's extreme stress during the course of the day it doesn't go below zero during the course of the day go back to before the crisis you go below zero all the time during the day so the question is how hard is that of a red line that will be up to the regulators to decide but right now we have to meet those rules and we don't want to violate what we told them we were going to do it is too late they have violated everything especially in silver what the regulator's told them to do Jamie Dimon ticking off a number of Federal Reserve regulations in just a few breaths is they sign of just how top of mind these constraints are to him he also twice concludes that it quote up to the regulators to decide if these rules are good for plumbing of the financial system making it easy to read between the lines about about his views absolutely like I said he is the worst poker player ever by now analysts have cited any number of reasons for the unexpected spike in rates in the more than two trillion dollar repo market in mid-september when they hit a record 10 percent the Fed which initially appeared to be asleep at the wheel has since stepped in short-term funding markets in a big way first with a persistent repo operations and more recently with announcement that it would buy sixty billion of Treasury bills per month at least into the second quarter one such theory for the repo madness centered specifically on JP Morgan on October 1st article from Reuters pointing out changes to the bank's 2.7 trillion dollar balance sheet is a key factor in last month's dislocation publicly filed data shows JP Morgan reduced the cash on its deposit at the Fed from which it might have lent by 158 billion in the year through June a 57 percent decline although JP Morgan's move appears to have been logical responses to interest rate trends and post crisis banking regulations which have limited it more than other banks the data shows that switch accounted for about a third of the drop in all banking reserves at the Fed during appearance of Jamie Dimon lied his ass off again quote it was a big move said one person who watches bank positions at the Fed but did not want to be named an executive had a computer bank called this shift massive other banks brought down their cash too but only by only half the percentage on average now these guys are getting bailed out every day Jamie Dimon I guarantee you is the largest taker of these bailouts lemon city the largest in a blunt statement a person familiar with the repo trading told Reuters that without the constraints on JP Morgan the rate would have never reached 10% that kind of assessment combined with di'monds musings on Tuesday are a clear shot across the ballot bank regulators the message is straightforward this is what happens under your rules when the markets are good are you willing to see what happens if the markets turn bad once the initial scare had passed guess who began offering more money in the repo market JP JP Morgan according to executives in the market who spoke to Bloomberg News as Dimon said it did the same thing during the last year's fourth quarter after repo rates exceeded what the feds offers on reserves notice the interest rate on excess reserves or IOU there's no indication the Fed will consider loosening its requirements like I said they taken the system down Jamie Dimon and JP Morgan are the ones going belly up to the bar at the Fed belly up at the Fed they were going down and thank God for that on other news yes the system could fall apart at any moment we knew on Friday that this this China deal was complete [ __ ] it was for the cameras for the to pump the stock market a little bit the Democrats just put the hammer down passing or putting up a new bill that would absolutely screw Trump and they are loving it of darkening outlook for phase one of the China deal the outlook for a meaningful us-china deal continues to deteriorate as the House passed a bill supporting the protesters in Hong Kong and China reportedly backtracked on part of the deal it agreed to last week the big picture the House bill would require an annual review of whether Hong Kong is truly separate from Beijing to the point it justifies the special trading status it receives under US law and would implement sanctions against officials responsible for undermining fundamental freedoms and autonomy in Hong Kong Chinese officials unsurprisingly did not take this news well accusing the u.s.
of political a political plot to thwart China's development Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it would take strong measures against the u.s. hit the bill passed and bypassing the house it's off as it is passed the house all the Democrats are on board for this are you kidding oh it's insane on the agriculture front bloomberg reported that Chinese officials are seeking a rollback of the 50 billion dollar and terrorists before agreeing to purchases to raise purchases of US Agriculture to 40 to 50 billion range Trump said was agreed to in the so-called phase 1 deal so nothing was agreed to and we all know that and whose Trump gonna blame Trump says economy a crash like the Great Depression of democratic clowns are elected I'd say the only way the Democrat clowns could be elected as if we have a crash like the Great Depression if Trump stops rigging every single market on planet Earth we would have a crash instantly and yes the Democrats would probably take over and be a very sad day wait truthfully I don't think the Democrats would take over I think there wouldn't be a president and I'm leaning towards that our government is a joke if we have a crash in the banks go down everything needs to be read rejiggered no longer 35 million people work directly or indirectly for the government 35 million people work directly or indirectly for the government I think our founding fathers had that in mind when they're setting up our country no these are ridiculous bureaucrats it's a gigantic socialist nanny state that we live it sad and over and you're up sterling whipsaws as traders react to barrage of conflicting headlines so they said there was a brexit deal and then they said there wasn't a brexit deal conflicting headlines this morning between British and European Union officials produced a produce new concerns that a brexit deal is on the verge of collapse what do you think the derivative markets are doing behind the scenes 200 markets can tell is kind of volatility so Trump says yeah we have a deal on Friday and then do don't have a deal on Tuesday brexit yeah we have a deal with that we don't have a deal is this all beeping on purpose to destroy the system absolutely winner when I that's your Morning News it's crazy out there and I want to thank everybody all the new members thank you for joining the private road and getting your veritasium token it keeps jumping up and down over $20 and under $20 so I'm gonna keep keep giving them out until they jump say let's say $25 is the cutoff once it hits that for the first time it's the cutoff check out Rhodri comm hit subscribe today and you will see what I'm giving away one very token on paper wallet mils your front door and the coolest coin ever made on planet earth the road to rue de coin individually numbered double stamp with luster cave right there in the side of the Grand Canyon silver brick road oh just a beautiful coin makes way road Riddick calculator
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