There's a skills mismatch in the labor market, says Ed Yardeni

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9월 고용지표 전망: 비농업 고용 약 14만 증가 예상으로 3개월 평균 11.6만보다 양호. 임금이 물가보다 빨라 실질임금이 늘고 소비가 견조하다고 봄. 고용 둔화는 해고보다 구인 감소 때문이며 고용 미스매치(기술 인력 부족) 존재. 연준이 금리를 낮추면 고용이 늘 수 있으나 유동성은 주가를 더 끌어올릴 것으로 봄. 경제가 3분기 3% 성장할 것으로 예상, 11월 25bp 인하 후 12월은 불확실, 연준은 이미 충분히 했다는 취지.

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01. want talk markets as we get ready for the September jobs report this Friday join us right now is Ed yardeni yardeni research uh president good morning to you good morning you want to talk jobs you want to talk jobs ahead of this this week what are we actually going to see because I think it's going to have maybe an impact on at least the fed's thinking a bit probably not absolutely this month but then also may have an impact frankly on politics in this election cycle so what are we going to see well I I think the consensus is that we'll see something like 140,000 increase in Peril employment uh which uh would be better than what we have seen on a 3-month uh average I think the 3-month average was 116,000 uh but wages have been rising faster than prices so real wages are up and that's really why consumer spending continues to increase you know employment is on the margin if we have 140,000 on the margin that's a good thing but we if we have a real wage increase wages are increasing faster than prices that affects everybody and that's in a positive way I so how do you think the FED thinks about that piece of this equation right there's the inflation component there's the employment component but if we're really talking about the wages component that's actually sort of a different overlay it is a different overlay and the the FED really hasn't emphasized that much uh you I've been doing this for a while and uh one of the old adages that uh doeses work is don't fight the fed and the FED particularly fed share Jerome Pal's come across as very very uh uh liberal uh on um the Mandate he's concluded that um the mission has been accomplished in terms of bringing inflation down and now uh the fight is to make sure unemployment doesn't go up but it's well meant but the reality is uh layoffs are extremely low the economy is actually doing quite well it's just that uh the number of job openings has declined and so people are staying unemployed longer and I think the FED perceives that if they lower interest rates they'll create more jobs and uh they could but I think there's also a skills M mismatch in the labor market and if that's the case then a lot of this liquidity that's being poured into the financial markets not just but by the us but now by China is going to continue to drive stock prices higher and that uh I think we're all speak to the skills mismatch piece of it is is that just here in the US you think or you think that's every I think it's probably everywhere I think uh clearly our economies on a worldwide basis have become much more high-tech that's where growth is coming from uh Goods production is already uh highly automated um and now we're going to probably have robots increasing the productivity in the manufacturing sector um so what we really need is a lot of very skilled workers particularly in the area of Technology uh or at least with the technology background uh and if that's the case uh we have a lot of work to do to augment the productivity of workers with technology okay so what is your betting line for the Federal Reserve through the end of the calendar year 2024 and speak to uh what we may see or not see before or after the election well I think uh I'm I'm in there with a consensus that again I'm not going to fight the FED here and the fed's uh very much committed to keeping the economy growing which is a good thing uh so I would say 25 basis points in November and then maybe not in December I think maybe not because I think the economic indicators are going to remain strong I mean we all saw last week that the economy was revised upwards GDP is up uh Stronger uh gross domestic income is stronger and more most importantly personal income turned out to be revised up and people are saving more and yet consumption has held in awfully well so I think the economy is growing 3% in the third quarter it'll do that in the fourth quarter and I think the fed's um you know has already done quite quite enough but it's going to do more based on what they're saying and 25 maybe it