저자: Paul Thomas Investing · 외국인
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paler stock is up over 30% in the past 3 weeks but there is rumors that paler could be set for a new all-time high there is an upcoming Catalyst for paler in the coming weeks that could see the stock rise rapidly Nvidia has been getting all the headlines in recent weeks but one Wall Street billionaire in particular has recently decided to dump Invidia stock and load up on paler stock in this video I'm going to analyze paler stock and what we can expect in the near term this is a mostat video for paler stockholders before we get into the video if you find any value in this can I ask you to smash the like button it literally cost you nothing but it helps me out so much I'm aiming to get 400 likes on this video help me hit that goal subscribe to the channel and hit the Bell notification if you're new so you don't miss out on any new content like this I'm not a financial adviser this is not Financial advice so always do your own due diligence now there's a lot to discuss so let's get straight into it so what is paler Technologies paler is a software company that builds the world's lead ing platforms for datadriven operations and decision making paler specializes in data analytics its software LS businesses capture and integrate data develop and manage Ai and machine learning models and build applications that incorporate those data sets and models these applications help workers make better decisions and paler develop long-term Partnerships with organizations working together to help them realize the value in their data and transform how they operate the company provides solutions for many Industries such as Automotive cyber Financial compliance law enforcement and Defense Forces among others it serves various private Enterprises public institutions and nonprofit organizations paler is a fully global company and has operations in North America Europe Asia and the Middle East but paler is headquartered in the US so that's a very simple breakdown of what paler is and what they do now paler recently debuted a new product called AIP or artificial intelligence platform which brings support for large language models and generative AI to its existing software with industry analysts having praised palander for its technology developments ranking paler as a leader in the artificial intelligence and machine learning and data science Market in many reports over the past two years looking at the recent investors presentation paler reported encouraging Financial results in QT two paler beat analyst estimates with very encouraging results pretty much exactly what I predicted in my paler earnings preview video and the stock has been on the rise ever since us commercial Revenue grew 55% year-over-year and total revenue grew 27% but only 7% from the previous quarter its customer count climbed 133% from the previous quarter and a whopping 83% year-over-year with the average existing customer spending more in turn Revenue increased to $678 million and palente recorded Gap EPS growth of 500% and an adjusted EPS of 9 cents now importantly paner recorded their sixth consecutive quarter of Gap operating profitability and their seventh consecutive quarter of Gap profitability this is important and paves the way for a bigger development that I will be speaking about in just a moment in a lot of ways Q2 2024 was by far paler best quarter to date they have increased their income they have increased their customer base signed 96 New Deals of at least $1 million or more and paler have ended the quarter in a better position than before with no debt and $4 billion in cash and cash equivalents but paler also signed major new deals in recent months such as the deal with Tampa General Hospital a deal with starlab and a partnership with Polaris and this is on top of agreements earlier in the year such as the deal with the US Army to deliver the Titan Next Generation deep sensing capability which is worth over $180 million or the deal with Oracle to provide secure platform and AI solutions that power businesses and governments around the world with guidance set for Q3 of between 697 million $71 million paler did also raise their full year 2024 for guidance yet again estimating 2024 sales of between 2.74 and $22.75 billion and expect to report free cash flow of between 800 of between $800 million and $1 billion this year providing the company with enough room to Target Acquisitions and invest heavily in organic growth now before I speak about what I considered to be one of palente biggest deals to date I did say at the start that a major Wall Street billionaire has decided to dump inidia stock and load up on paler stock and that is none other than Citadel founder Ken Griffin who recently slashed his position in Nvidia by 80% but bought up over 5.6 million shares of paler worth more than 170 million looking at the charts we can see the paler is very much on the up and has been for more than a year the stock has been moving consistently in this channel since May 2023 but it appears that we might be facing heavy resistance in the coming weeks so what do you think about this is Ken Griffin right to be loading up on paler this month after all the stock is up about 30% since he purches but can paler break through the resistance and fly to a new all-time high or will the stock fall back again into the mid-20s let me know your thoughts in the comments below now as I said at the beginning I have a major warning and to be fair this warning also goes for most of the market August is now finished and the S&P has recorded its fourth winning month despite huge vola utility at the end of August last trading day all three major index notched wins for the month overcoming earlier losses and these losses were significant NASDAQ dropped over 133% in just 5 weeks but then recovered strong however as we move into September we have to remember one thing September is historically bad month for stocks we can see it when we look at the charts over the past 5 years but this is not just a recent thing since 1950 the S&P 500 has generated an average loss of 0.7% in September making it the worst month for stocks on average on average return and positivity rate basis in fact the last four septembers have been notably weak with the index posting respective declines of 4.9 9.3 4.8 and 3.9% now you might be thinking the drops of 3 or 4% isn't bad and for a single stock it's probably not that bad but for an index as a whole 4% is a significant drop as I said a moment ago paler has been signing huge New Deals throughout 2024 is palen's deal with Microsoft a game changer now one of the most important factors to this is that over half of palen's Revenue stems from government deals and paler is doubling down on this by partnering with Microsoft's azur government Cloud platform so let's dig into palen's new partnership with Microsoft and assess why this relationship could be transformative for paler first of all paler sells its products both to private and public sectors and we can see here from these metrics that Revenue growth is very encouraging look at this graph look at the revenue growth since 2020 now some people are saying that palente Revenue growth is slowing down but I don't see any signs of this at all in fact palen's Commercial Business is its fastest growing segment but still roughly 54% of total revenue so far this year stems from government contracts how are Microsoft and paler working together so Microsoft is one of the world's biggest companies with global operations spanning across many areas however one of the company's most important businesses is its Azor cloud computing platform Microsoft and paler are teaming up to bridge azor's Cloud infrastructure with with palente AI software specifically palente AIP will be integrated with Microsoft's aor government and top secret Cloud details AIP is the first major partner that will be using Microsoft's open AI large language model in classified environment but is this enough of a deal to drive the share price higher right now and the answer to that is probably no for now at least until we get more details about this deal right now paler trades at a forward PE ratio of 90.6 which is huge even for a growth stock but it's well above many of palente Industry peers however this deal could be the deal that opens the door to many other contracts and could lead to paler to begin to generate more accelerated growth or potentially win larger public sector deals now this bit is very interesting it's important to consider the longer term implications that could result from the deal with Microsoft I think Microsoft will ultimately be a new source of lead generation for paler cross- selling into Microsoft's existing government customer base could help paler smooth out its own public sector business so to me the deal could very well be a GameChanger in the long run and another huge deal was this one but I have talked about this in more detail in other videos so I won't go into too much detail right now paler bag's $480 million deal from Pentagon to inject Battlefield AI into the entire military so this is for the maven smart system to be used across the Department of Defense by 2029 the Department of Defense says that it wants paler to have the work done by 2029 now according to paler this deal is for far more than just the MSS prototypes up to 480 million will be awarded over 5 years to make licenses available across the dod so could paler stock be worth $1 trillion by 2040 paler would need to grow its annual revenue massively and unrealistically to achieve 1 trillion by 2030 however it could well be possible to achieve this by 2040 so let's look at some of the details the stock would have to increase by more than than 20 fold to reach 1 trillion the company is projected to generate approximately 2.7 billion in Revenue this year hypothetically if paler can grow its Revenue by 20% a year consistently it would generate approximately 50 billion in Revenue by 2040 if we place a 10 times multiple on that and the company would be worth about 500 billion that's an increase in value of more than 10 times but still far less than 1 trillion however if paler can accelerate its annual growth rate to 25% it would generate about 96 billion in 2040 Revenue at that point it could well become a trillion dollar stock so the question is can paler grow its annual growth rate by 25% or more for the next decade and although the answer to this is not simple we just need to look at the investors presentation and the recent Financial results to see what is being achieved to date we can see here that they grew Revenue by 27% and they grew their you us commercial Revenue by over 55% and Alex carp has been talking about the rule of 40 in his recent earnings call the rule of 40 is a common metric used to measure the performance of a software as a service company measuring the trade-off between profitability and growth the rule of 40 asserts asserts that a successful saas company's growth rate and profit margin should add up to 40% or more which paler has been doing fairly consistently for the past couple of years years but to keep this up for the next 15 years is a whole other level but if AI is still in its early days and paler technology becomes foundational platform for both governments and Commercial businesses then it is very possible after all Alex carp did say that he expects paler to become the biggest AI company in the world in the coming years but what is more likely and something that is very possible this year is that paler could be included in the S&P 500 the SNP 500 is an index comprised of the 500 biggest companies in the US and getting inducted into the S&P 500 is a big milestone that represents major validation for businesses the eligibility requirements for inclusion into the index are no small feat but in terms of market cap in terms of trading volume and public ownership paler fits the bill but one of the most important variables revolves around profitability specifically the sum of the company trailing 12-month earnings must be positive paler recently became profitable and as we can see here palen's earnings have been positive for the past five consecutive quarters well it's highly likely that induction into the S&P 500 Index will put paler on the radar of more institutional investors as such the company's coverage from investment Banks and interest from hedge funds May begin to increase and all of this is good for investors now although palente inclusion in the S&P 500 is not guaranteed I would be surprised if it isn't included in the upcoming rebalancing but guys nothing is for certain and I would love to hear your thoughts about this in the comments below and paler become a$1 trillion company and realistically how long do you think that that would take now that the company is finally profitable now this is just my opinion and there is a lot of variables to consider 2040 is a long way away and this is not Financial advice now there is a lot of talk as always about paler on social media but always do your own due diligence remember I'm not a financial adviser but if you enjoyed this analysis then please like And subscribe I hope you make a load of money on this stock follow me on Twitter and I'll catch you in the next
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