저자: BetterInvestingAcademy진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어 실적이 기대를 크게 상회했으나 PSR 약 150배로 극단적 고평가라고 진단. 발표자는 2021~22년 사례(넷플릭스·메타·C 등)를 들어 급락 위험을 경고하며 포트폴리오 집중도를 낮추기 위해 팔란티어를 조금씩 매도(트리밍) 중이라고 밝힘. 주식 자체의 방향은 예측하지 않고 리스크 관리를 강조. 추천은 하지 않는다고 명시.
다듬은 글
Hello guys. So, Palenteer has released their results and it was very very good. Okay, they blew past uh expectations, you know, all the KPIs, all they hit. So, to be honest, okay, there's really nothing much to share, okay, about Valentine because everything is so good, right? the stock price also continue to keep on going up right so I think the most important question that a lot of investors are even debating right now okay is whether you know we should hold or sell okay and a lot of people ask this question because the question is aimed at the stock but you're watching this video here I want to share another angle okay another angle okay and that is to focus on your portfolio and not the stock itself all right so so a bit of an update okay for balente as you can see um really like I say it's quite crazy their total revenue grew 48% close to 50% growth.
Okay, for a SAS tech company they are able to grow 50% is really really remarkable. Yeah. And the US commercial revenue grew 93%. you know that means it shows there's a lot of demand really currently right now a lot of corporate okay America they are now into AI you know and they are now leveraging on uh talent here okay uh to ride on this AI wave to make sure that they didn't lack behind yeah and the US government revenue also coming in all right so um to be honest really nothing much on the update okay but I want to focus a lot okay on the question right whether okay this one the question you all have been asking okay is whether do we you know um hold the stock or continue to sell par and I will share my views currently.
Yeah. So, as usual, okay, um uh in my telegram community. All right. This is my telegram community. So, I sometimes will share, okay, my views, my strategies in the uh subscribers in this telegram community here. Yeah. So, I would like to share it, okay, in the video and provide more explanation instead.
Yeah. So, as usual, okay, I don't give recommendations. Yeah. But what I can share is my own thinking, okay, my thought process, you know, and my own strategy for the long term here. Yeah. Okay. So first of all is you need to understand yes everyone I think for now agree already okay Palante's valuation is really really crazy okay the price to sales right now if you all do not know is around 150 times now to know how expensive this 150 times it right companies the the really good ones are those with very high valuations okay because we have been investing in the US right we researching a lot of stocks so we roughly know the average the average typically trades 20 to 30 times price to sales so when the stock price okay hits to a certain price with with this kind of multiple is really very very overvaluated.
Okay, but as you all know, yeah, I know you can keep the debate. Okay, balance is a once in a lifetime opportunity stock. No, no competitor and stuff. Okay, that we shall leave it another way. But the fact is that if you look at a multiple alone 150 times, okay, I personally think is really really stretched very very thin already.
Okay, so this is my own point of view. So it shows that what you know stock price currently right now is being held mostly by investors expectations and investors current positive view on that stock. The fundamentals has not yet you know uh reach to a level that supports this kind of multiple yet. Okay.
The value is a lot based on future expectations on how well balanc will be doing. Yeah. So uh this what I told my community members that this valuation right now is being supported by air. Okay. Supported by air currently. Okay. So, so the view is you know palent has really delivered life-changing returns.
All right. Uh for the past two years here okay I also invested in palent since three years ago when it drops until from 20 dropped until the lowest was seven I think. So yeah so at the time me and my committee members we have been uh keep on slowly averaging down throughout the years and what for one and a half year was flat and finally you go up like that we all been rewarded quite well.
Yeah but this is another context that I want to share with you guys. Okay on to answer your question whether we should hold or even seller. So this is the one thing that I want you guys to know. Now when it comes to investing, all right, it is not about making money. Okay? Not just about making money, but it's also about keeping that money.
Okay? Keeping the hardened profits that you just generated from a certain stock because there is no point in stacking huge gains. That means you make a lot of gains already, right? Then only to hand them back in the market later. Yeah. If you still remember two, right? A lot of people actually make money in 2021.
All right? They make a lot of life-changing returns, five times, 10 times return. But then they are so confident, okay? So arrogant, okay, that when 2022 hits, they make, right? They they return back all the profits and the returns later on. Okay? So what I can tell you is this. This is what I am doing.
Okay? So I have been slowly trimming my Palenteer position. Trimming means slowly sell bit by bit over time. Okay? Now please, okay, don't take this a wrong way. It's not because I'm saying bad things about Palanteer. It's I and also I don't think the stock will crash tomorrow but it's because of risk management.
Okay, this is one l one one skill that a lot of long-term investors lack. They keep on focusing on the stock only but they forgot about portfolio framework and also risk management. Okay, because I think I've already made a lot okay on profits from balance already. I have very huge six-digit profits okay and for me right now okay it's about protecting what the floor value of my portfolio.
When I say floor value means right your portfolio is grown to a certain size really right and you really want to protect a certain flaw there's volatility in the stock market right you want to protect a certain flaw right so that your your your your portfolio value will uh reach like that and it will stay there all right not so volatile and cost by one stock so I'm selling slowly bit by bit in order to increase the fall value of my portfolio so one of my own personal rules why I want to do that is I don't want to let a single stock dictate the fate of my portfolio as well wealth meaning to say okay I I'm not sure about you guys because balanteer has been going up a lot.
Okay, I do not know how many percentage of portfolio in your portfolio. Sorry, how many percentage of balance in your current portfolio right now? Some may be 30% of portfolio, some maybe go until 50%. I really do not know. Okay, but this is a very very highly concentrated portfolio. All right. And this stock movement will heavily influence your portfolio value.
So if let's say parent went up a lot, you also went up a lot. Okay. If it crashes then your value will also crash because it's been held by one single stock. I don't want to let one stock here to influence okay the value of my portfolio. Okay. Why is that? Huh? Now if you're a longterm longtime investor, okay, where you have been going on or been through, okay, the the markets ups and down, the crashes and everything, right?
I have been throughout my 10 years of uh close to 12 years already, right? Um I've been through a lot of volatility, a lot of market crashes and stuff, right? And let me tell you this, okay? black bad things or black swan events will happen okay without any warning all right and this is the thing that I share okay in my telegram community because no matter okay why why I want I don't want to let a single stock dictate the fate of my portfolios well is because no matter how loyal you are to your stocks your stocks will never be loyal to you okay macro shorts okay black swan event sentiment shifts okay when I say sentiment shift is suddenly the hype on that stock then suddenly okay the the price was been supported by positivity right suddenly the community or the investors there shift the sentiment suddenly becomes so negative and is the the valuation market is supported by this kind of sentiment right if it shifts h then it will wipe out your gain okay in a heartbeat that's why I told them yeah so you see balent at 150 price to sales is literally priced for perfection is so high the market expects them to perform so well that they they cannot do any mistake at all so I think that this is quite dangerous okay and quite okay risky in a sense so you you in the sense that you You see, I'm not saying valent won't go up to 200 or even above.
I wrote here it won't even go 200 or 300. It can. It can also. Okay? And I would never say never one. Okay? But the question is this. As of today, as of this moment, I want to ask you this question. Can you say with absolute certainty, okay? That it will get there without any problems. Now, you need to think about this.
Can you say with certainty confirm that it will reach 300, 400, 500, okay, with no issues? Now if you say you are confident okay I always tell people I say yeah I'm confident conf is the best company in the world talk is cheap okay I say talk is cheap prove it with your money okay your perception or thinking will change when it involves money okay you put the majority of your wealth into balent right now okay at a $180 with this kind of crazy valuation so you need to prove it like that okay now you see when when the stock goes up right you need to understand this one thing okay when the stock goes up you will never find bad news ever.
the media, the analysts, okay, they don't want to look wrong or even be contrarian because price go up. When price go up, very rare people would like to give a very opposite view. All right? So, you will be flooded with good news and even feel that you are I'm a very good investor. This stock is very good.
So, it gives you a sense of false confidence. Okay? Until the day reality, okay, because I can give you a few examples. Now, do you remember C Limited, Netflix or even Meta? Now these three companies I tell you is a very very good company in 2022 at that time okay all went up very high and stuff but okay each of them faces their own certain business issues okay and it dropped 70% at some point okay one for example is this one okay Netflix right now do you see let's say like okay let me show the other one first okay like this is Netflix right Netflix meta Netflix here dropped this one 70 close to 70%.
Okay. Meta also okay rock two sorry from the the top one uh 75% C limited uh okay until also 86%. But before that you can see all before that all prices keep going up. Okay. Keep on going up consistently. Okay. So the point that I want to share with you guys I'm back to why I say here is this certain stocks always go up.
Okay. It feels like it will continue to go up like it will never end right Netflix meta and C limited. But the question is okay one day okay if hits the fan then the price will come crash all your hard work. Imagine Netflix these people invested for so long for many many years. for example they grow into millions okay let's say is they grow into 1 million this stock contribute 1 million okay then in that one few months drop 70% that means you lose 700,000 you know you only left with 300,000 so this is the message that I want to share with you guys okay things like this will happen okay in any stock okay never be too arrogant okay always be humble okay if not you'll be humbled by the market yeah so meta is the same thing w so consistently going up I won't sell okay because it will keep on going If let's say one day this thing happened, okay, then you will have to face the music.
This is what I want to share with you guys. Okay. So, so the question that I want to tell you ask you guys is this. Okay. If these kind of things happen to a stock, I'm not saying about Palente right now in general. Do you have the mental strength to sit through a 70% draw down? Ah, okay. This is the question you need to ask.
Okay? Because people when they they talk about balent right. Okay. I think I never showed the balant stock. Okay. Let me show you another one. Okay. Okay. Let me open up valent stock. Palanteer stock. Okay. Now price goes up a lot here like that. Right. Okay. It's like they feel invincible. This stock okay can do uh no wrong.
Everything is going up all face all all good news. Okay. This is the the sentiment uh currently. But the question now I want to ask you guys okay is this okay? Is this do you have the mental strength? Because okay if not the market will test you and bad news will chew away at your position day after day.
Now let me tell you this stock price goes down like that. Okay, it's not going down with good news. Now you see our penalty going up like that. They thought wow price crash down 70% I confirm we'll buy more. Now let me tell you again pop when the price go down okay the market wants so stupid sell a good company to you at a cheaper price.
No a lot of people at the time there's a confidence positive confidence and hype. Okay and when the price goes down they they say they dare to buy. But the question is it was said okay with a positive sentiment and good news on that company. Normally when price goes down like that okay like like okay like for example unh this one the more form fail all go down okay it go down also same thing okay from this high you know drop I think close to 704% like that okay during that time can you must ask this question why such stock at the time dropped a lot okay at that time let me tell you meta what happened okay at that time meta dropped is the the the argument that tik tok is taking meta's market share meta is burning true cash okay in their metavis uh uh investment okay and at the time slowing down the business summer is slowing down.
Yeah, because if you all still remember there's a high inflation thing, you know, the the market is very uncertain, the companies are not really spending. Uh so there were a lot of news keep on bombarding that stock and every quarter not only analyst downgrade you know uh bad news and then each you see every quarter w revenue slowed down a bit already w and then the price gap down dropped 15%.
So all of these happen at the same time. You need to understand that right. So so that's why I said do you really have the mental strength? So okay when it c drops like that 70% especially it's a big amount six digits keep on dropping slowly for for like what six six six months seven months like that.
Uh so you need to to to think again before you say okay that you will buy when the price drops 70%. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. So if you are sure okay again I asked this question if you you are so sure a crashing stock will recover higher. Okay. Okay, like Netflix. All right, then you put 100% of your wealth.
Okay, in UNH or no right now because now it's down dropped 65%. Now, why I I I challenge this is because I people keep on saying, oh, okay, look back at Palent. Okay, what this stock drop? It drop 70%. I dare to buy one because I'm confident it will recover. I confident it will recover. All right, so it's easy to say, okay, like for example, because they saw C Limited going up already.
Meta, w if I bought around this area, w I make money already, you know. Wow. Then if Netflix left Netflix recover like that or at that time drop I buy I make money already. Let me tell you this kind of words is what you know hindsight. Okay your confidence comes from hindsight. Why this one recover or if drop I buy I confirm make money.
So there is a how to say there is a a misconception okay or a false confidence okay that they think what happened to these stocks will happen to the stock that they invested in. So you need to think about that when price drop they don't drop for no reason. So that's why I say okay for example United Health Group okay and Novo here they keep on dropping okay because market share has been taken they cannot grow they got issue with their uh uh like for example no right their GLP one of their products cannot sell well El is the one taking their market share already all right and other teley health companies are also taking their market share so and then analyst also downgraded again their their business so when all of this bad news flying about right do you really dare to to to to take a bet and I will only believe you if you dare to put in 100% of your wealth.
Uh this is the thing here. Okay. So now what I want to show you guys is that for example no okay this stock here can has dropped a lot right. Okay I challenge you guys you want to think here will Novo go back up okay above uh 142 and even go back up higher like Netflix here. Okay. Now of course we need to do the research and stuff to find any clues and any signs of invest uh um recovery.
Right. Okay. But the question now is this. At that moment in time, like right now you're watching this video, you're watching this this chart with me. Okay? How confident are you? Let's make a decision right now. Can you tell me for certain Novo will go back up above 142 and even higher. Now you need to to answer me right now.
Okay. So investing is like that, right? And it's easy to say, you know, in the past I should have bought down here, go up really because this is what we call hindsight. It happened already. That's why you say that. Okay, I give you another chance. You want to buy undervalued stocks, right? United Health and Novo is really undervalued.
I tell you it's undervalued right now. But the question is can you do you dare to take a bet that you will recover? Very very high, right? So if what's say Palanteer go up, go down, you say you dare to buy more. Okay, then at that time it happens. How confident are you that you will recover? Like let's say you make 1 million from from Palanteer or drop 70% slowly dropped.
Okay, you lost 700,000. he left 300,000 and you're so confident that 300,000 will go back up to 1 million and go back even higher you need to think yourself okay and answer yourself honestly okay yeah so so I want to tell you guys here okay saying you will buy and hold a stock in hindsight okay uh uh is very easy it's very easy okay the real challenge is what making the right call in the present moment uh under uncertainty of the future let's go back to this talk again okay in this moment right now how to make the right for okay and then with the uncertainty in the future because the business is really bad right now how do you make decision ah okay so this is the thing I want you guys to think about okay so balented right now they have made a lot of us very very rich so there is no need okay to keep pressing your luck on the same bet okay reallocate some to safer or undervalued place that means undervalued stocks okay where the odds okay the odds of you making money or even winning okay is on your side yeah and then you can keep compounding without unnecessary risk some people they Say they sell that stock already or the price go up I miss out already.
But the the thing is that when you allocate to another stock that stock can still give you your returns. Return is a return. It doesn't matter from how which stock right. So so trimming a stock that means slowly sell bit by bit. Okay. Over a period of time. Okay. That's why I say trimming is not saying that stock is bad.
I'm not saying the stock is bad. Parent I really salute. Okay. How they execute the demand is mind-blowing. Okay. But it's all about protecting your capital. Okay. Protecting your capital doing risk management. All right. So don't focus on maximizing a stock's return, okay? And you know, instead focus on maximizing your survival instead because you don't want to be Russian, okay?
You you make a huge bet on one stock and then the stock, you know, went down, crashed, you lost your wealth, okay, you have to start back from zero. You don't want to do that. So that's why I meant survival. Okay? Do maximize your survival so you can continue compound and stay in the game so that you continue invest and grow your wealth for many, many more years.
All right? So my last message to you guys this, okay, about Valentia is I don't care, okay? I don't care whether I'm right about the stock price, whether balance will continue to go up and everything, okay? I I don't want to take a stand on this, okay? Because I care about being right, okay, about growing my portfolio safely and consistently, okay?
So don't love a stock, okay? Love your portfolio, okay? Because a stock, like I said, they won't be loyal to you. I think I got say here before, right? Yeah, this is the very Let me let me refresh here again. I think this is a very powerful statement here. Hold on. Yeah. Okay. Because no matter how loyal you are to your stocks, the stocks will never be loyal to you because macro shocks, black swan events and sentiment can shift and wipe out your gains if ever happens here.
I will again I will never know whether this thing will happen to balance or not. But I'm just doing risk management. Okay. So I do hope you guys okay enjoy this message. Okay. How to play around, okay, or answer your question whether you want to hold or even sell uh uh baler here. Okay. So if you guys like you know this kind of sharing here, okay, you can do join in my telegram group.
Yeah, because my telegram group one, okay, I've been sharing a lot of things inside here. Yeah, you want to read I share also. Yeah, a lot of things. Yeah, if you feel that you want to be a part of this community, you can click the link down below. Okay, uh and just join me. Okay, it's free for you guys.
Yeah, so again, thanks for listening to my rambling and sharing here. Okay, so see you in my next video. Okay, thanks a lot.
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