저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
투자 운용의 본질은 자산 선택과 사이클 포지셔닝이며, '지금이 공격/방어 중 어느 때인가'를 판단하는 것이 핵심이라고 주장. 기회 상실 위험과 손실 위험의 균형이 중요하며, 현재는 과도한 방어도 과도한 공격도 아닌 '전진하되 신중하게(move forward, but with caution)' 국면으로 평가. 포트폴리오를 정상 위험 성향 대비 방어 쪽으로 약간 기울인 상태로 거의 완전 투자 유지. 극단적 비관기에는 공격, 과열기에는 신중을 강조.
다듬은 글
There's only two things I would never say. Number one is get out and number two is it's time. Because because you know, our industry, our field of endeavor does not permit that level of certainty. We're all I assume everybody here is in the investment business. What do we do? What do you do? What is your job?
Oh, it's to manage money. No, what is the job of the money manager? And the answer, I think, is that everything we do falls into one of two categories. Asset selection and cycle positioning. Asset selection is trying to hold more of the things that will do better and less of the things that will do worse.
And cycle positioning means trying to hold a more have more money invested more aggressively when the time is right and less money invested more defensively when the timing is wrong. Positioning for the cycle. Those are the two things we do. I don't think there's anything we do that doesn't fall under one of those two headings.
And accepting that there is no better or worse time for defense versus offense means giving up on the ladder. Tying one hand behind our back. And I think it's a mistake. I think we can at the especially at the extremes increment our port performance by being aggressive at the right time and defensive at the right time.
When prices are low, pessimism is widespread and investors flee from risk, that's the time to be aggressive. When prices are high and enthusiasm is rampant and investors are risk tolerant, that's the time for caution. Which is this? That's the question. Very simple question. Not always easy to answer.
But a very simple question. Do you agree that sometimes it's better to be on offense or sometimes on defense? Do you agree that these are the things that determine those times? Which is this? Very simple. So, the decision today, these are the questions to ask to try to figure out which this is. Are investments rich or cheap?
Where do we stand in the market cycle? That's what the book is all about. How should we be positioned versus our normal risk posture? Every one of you and every client and every institution should have a normal risk posture based on your financial condition, your aspirations, your ability to stand pain, your emotional constitution, uh your needs, etc.
That's your normal position. Where should we be today vis-a-vis our normal position? Should we be emphasizing offense or defense today? Should we worry more about losing money today or worry about missing opportunity? Now, this is very important. Every one of us in this room faces two risks every day.
The obvious risk that everybody knows about and nobody likes is the risk of losing money. The more subtle risk, which not everybody thinks about, is the risk of missing opportunity. Now, you could say, "Howard, I want to be sure that I don't ever lose a penny. I don't want to ever have a down day in my portfolio.
I couldn't take it." I say, "Okay, we'll put you all in 30-day bills. You'll never have a down day, and you'll miss all the opportunities." But if you say, "Look, I'm a young guy. I have a big risk tolerance. I I know what I'm talking about here. I don't want I want to make sure I don't miss any opportunities." Then we say, "Okay, no Treasuries for you." And now you are 100% exposed to the risk of losing money.
So, the point is you can eliminate either risk, which puts you entirely at the mercy of the other risk, or you can balance them. And what do most people say? "Well, I don't want to lose a lot of money, but on the other hand, I don't want to miss all the opportunities. So, I'm going to operate in the middle.
I'm going to uh I'm going to have some risk of losing money and some risk of missing opportunity." And most of us maintain a balance somewhere in the middle, hopefully as is appropriate for our circumstances and our client's circumstances. And lastly, if you go back 40 2nd of of 09, if you wanted to make a lot of money, you only needed two things.
Money to invest and the nerve to invest it. That's all you needed. You didn't need a lot of brains. You didn't need selectivity, caution, conservatism, select the discipline, patience, agility. All you needed was money and nerve. And if you had those things over the last 10 years, you made a ton of money.
Does that mean that money and nerve is the formula for success in the investment business? No. Because if you had money and nerve in April of 07, you lost a lot of money. You bore the full brunt or more of the global financial crisis. Maybe you got knocked out of business. That's when you needed caution, conservatism, risk control, patience, selectivity, and discipline.
So, the point is there are different tools for different climates. Which is this? Money and nerve today? Caution and conservatism today? And Oaktree's mantra over the last several years has been move forward, but with caution. I don't think that asset prices are so high. I don't think the outlook is so bad that you should practice maximum defense.
And the return for being in ultra-safe assets is unacceptably low to for most of us. But on the other hand, I don't think the prices are low enough or the the outlook is good enough to be practicing sheer aggression. I don't think it's there's any place for aggressiveness in today's market. So, that's where we came up with this balance of move ahead, but with caution.
We're investing every day. We're basically fully invested and trying to stay that way, but with a portfolio that is biased toward defense, not offense. Biased vis-a-vis our norm. When it's time to be aggressive, you need to be aggressive while buying stocks. Says Howard Marks. Great opportunities don't appear every day and when they do, the biggest winners are the ones prepared to act with conviction.
That preparation comes staying defensive during overheated markets and keeping cash ready for rare high-quality opportunities. You know, smart investors know that wealth is not created by constantly buying, but by waiting patiently for the right moment. As Howard Mark believes that cycles always change and investors who understand this can take advantage of fear and uncertainty.
The cash you protect during risky times because of me is your best weapon during market crashes and corrections. Most people panic when prices fall, but experienced investors see it as the biggest time to buy strong businesses at attractive valuations. And you should know true investing success comes from balancing patience with aggression at the right time.
If you can stay disciplined when markets are euphoric and fearless when opportunities appear, you gain huge edge over others. More importantly, understanding when to defend and when to attack is what separates average investors from exceptional ones. Master this mindset and you don't just win in the market, you win big.
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