저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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Jim Rogers, good morning. Thank you for joining us. Are you rubbing your eyes, Jim, with disbelief that crude actually cracked below below I mean crude became zero last evening. What do you think the implications of this would be for oil-producing nations, for oil-producing companies, for shale gas producers?
Are we staring at a serious bankruptcy coming in for the entire oil supply chain? You're already seeing bankruptcy. Some shale producers in the US have declared bankruptcy and some drilling companies. So, it's happening, Nikunj. But but last night was an aberration. I don't think you'll see another one like that.
You know, the June contract is over 20. In Europe, oil is over 20. So, don't think that oil is going to stay at zero. It was only one night for one special reason. Jim, when commodities crack, it is nothing else but pricing power shifts from commodity producer to commodity consumer. Are we looking at a new order in the world where the total wealth effect will shift away, let's say, from oil-producing nations like Russia, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Nigeria, Venezuela to producing to consuming nations like India and China?
Well, Nikunj, this is great. You're very perceptive. This is good for China. It's good for India. Good for Germany. Good for Japan. It's good for oil consume Korea. It's good for oil-consuming nations. Oil producers are suffering now and many other company companies in those countries as well. So, for the world, yes, it's good.
There will be bankruptcies, but Nikunj, go out and drive to Mumbai. You'll have fun. Jim, you've been making a point from last couple of years is that central bank will continue to print more money and that will ensure there is liquidity which will take commodity prices higher. Would you still argue that it's a matter of time commodity prices will start going higher?
Well, Nikunj, yes. I mean, you see what's happened to gold. Oh, gold is making 8 9 year highs. So some commodities have already started being affected. Oil is collapsing for the special reasons which we've discussed. You know, the oil and price gas war the war price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia and America's shale producers, but some things are already starting to go up.
When I spoke to you Mr. Rogers 5 years ago, you said that if you want to get rich, you need to stack up some sugar in your pocket, get a silver spoon, and start eating rice with that. So in the post COVID world, if somebody has to make money or get rich, what should one do? You can go buy sugar. I hope you stocked up.
I hope you bought yourself some sugar. Buy yourself some rice. Agricultural products will be going higher, especially things we eat because this is having a knock-on effect for the farmers farmers everywhere. But you should also make sure you have some gold. Most Indians have some gold. Most Indians love gold.
If you don't have some gold, be sure you have some gold. Because before this is over, gold is going to go much higher. I prefer silver at the moment. In fact, I am buying silver as we speak, but both will do well. Would you be tempted to re-look at equities Mr. Rogers because you have not liked equities in a long time, but after the recent fall and given that things will change in the short term, would you be looking at buying equities?
Shipping company yesterday, I bought a Chinese wine company. So yes, I am looking now as we speak. [cough] You know, transportation Sorry, transportation and tourism has been crushed everywhere in the world. What is your understanding of what will do well and what will not do well in the post COVID world.
Well, some things that are going to do well are things that have been crushed. I mentioned transportation, shipping, tourism, hotels, restaurants are all being crushed right now. They will recover [clears throat] and do well. Uh some of the things that are obviously going to be have great progress is medical care over the internet.
Most people never would have tried it, but now they're being forced to try it. So, it's going to accelerate. Likewise with home delivery. Most people never would have tried having food delivered at home, but now they have to. So, health care delivery, food delivery, anything like that, education. My children are out of school, but they're doing school on the computer now.
Most people never would have tried it, but now they're being forced to try it. So, all of these things are going to accelerate in the future. Uh Jim, you know, I must I must admit this on national television that I I love reading your books. I've read a couple of them and some of them couple of times also.
So, let's say if you have to write a book on how can one make money and reboot themselves both in terms of productivity, asset allocation in the post COVID world, what would be the title of that book? How will the book start and how will the book end? Well, first I want to tell you that in ET is my favorite or certainly one of my favorites in the world.
Whenever I'm in India, I watch and I read the newspaper as well. So, so I'm I'm a fan. I'm a fan. What you need to do, no matter what is happening in the world, is stay with what you know. Please do not listen to me or other people you see on the internet or the TV. If you want to be successful, stay with what you know.
If I told you you could only have 20 investments in your life, you would be very successful. You would be careful. You wouldn't be jumping in and out. You would know what you were doing. So, my book would say new world stay with what you know. Uh and then some of the things that we all will know we all will know about medical care over the internet.
You know, my children we will all know about my children for instance will never go to a post office when they're adults. My children may very rarely ever go to a bank when they're adults. You're going to see a lot of empty property banks uh post offices all over the world. So, they're going to be great opportunities, but only stay with what you know.
Please, do not listen even to ET. Stay with what you know. The world is changing. As I said, my children will never go to a bank, but they will have money, and they will save, and they will invest, but everything will be on the internet. How does one go about understanding valuations and asset pricing when interest rates are zero?
Interest rates they follow pattern that's how do you pick up e multiples, cyclicals, and industrials. But when interest rates are zero, how does one value prices of assets? Well, I know that that has been a way that some people have valued companies. I never paid too much attention to that myself. I mean, everybody has their own way.
But what I would suggest to you to find something that doesn't have too much debt that has very good growth prospects. I mentioned to you health care over the internet for instance. Now, I don't have any names but that is going to be a great way to make money in the future, and if you can find the companies that are going to do especially in India it's going to have a great future.
You know, things like that if you can some of the things that in India for instance, Indian farmers now can buy and sell commodities over the internet. All of these things are new. My where I grew up, farmers don't barely know what the internet is, but in India, they're far ahead, farmers are far ahead of farmers in other parts of the world.
So, there are new things developing. Find them. If you understand them and get involved. Um Jim, you're a market veteran and like you know, I just want to share with our viewers that I've been interacting with Jim Rogers for nearly 20 years now. And you know, when I interacted with you Jim in 2000 after the 9/11 crisis, you said agri commodities is the way things would move and it moved that way.
Agri commodities grew, everything went higher. When 2008 crisis happened, we saw a big resurgence in internet companies, the Googles, the Alphabets, the Facebooks of the world, they got created. So, post this crisis, if a boom has to start, uh where do you think it will start apart from health care companies?
Well, I mentioned education, home delivery. Uh there there new things which are going going to develop. There is no question that if you understand technology, you will make huge fortunes and there many Indians, many people in India as you know, who are very, very good at technology. Find them. Invest.
Because it's all going to change one way or the other. Uh entertainment will be more and more on the internet going forward. I am hopeless at technology. My 12-year-old daughter knows more about the phone than I do. I have to go to my daughter and ask her about the phone. But many Indians are brilliant at technology.
Find them. Find them. Do your homework and invest in them. Do you think investing in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies could be a good idea because everything is becoming digital and that is the new digital for transaction? Question that money is going to be on the computer. It's already happening. You cannot take a taxi in China with money.
You cannot take buy ice cream in China with money. You have to have it on your phone. That is happening. The Chinese yesterday came out with their own currency on the computer. But my point is it's all money is going to be on the computer, but it's going to be government money. It's not going to be Bitcoin.
It's not going to be some of the cryptos. You know, in the 1930s, you could use anything for money. Seashells, anything. Banks could print their own money. The Bank of England came out and said from now on it's an act of treason to use anything for money except our money. Treason. Well, treason means they execute you, as you know.
So, people stopped using them. The crypto guys will say, "Listen, we're smarter than the government." And they are smarter than the government. I assure you they're smarter than they but the government has the guns. I don't like it. I don't like it that the government's going to have more and more control and knowledge about all of us.
But the governments have the guns. If they say it's an act of treason to use cryptocurrencies except our cryptocurrencies, you're not going to do it. They're all going to all governments are going to have their own cryptocurrencies and they're not going to let you use anything else. If you have to, let's say, choose one market to invest between India and China, which way would you lean and your thoughts on why would you lean that way?
Listen, I love India. I If you If you've read my books, you know I always say that India's one of my favorite countries in the world and everybody should visit there. Uh at the moment, I'm not investing in India. I do have some investments in China. I bought a for share yesterday. Uh I guess at the moment Well, actually it's a good question.
I'd have to start looking. I haven't looked at the India recently, but it must be down a lot. And India some Indian companies have great great great futures. I have to go and do some homework. Thank you. See, if you watch ET you get some good information. Thank you very much for the endorsement, Jim.
So, my next follow-up question, sir, is simple. Uh, what is the future for oil-producing countries and nations? Saudi Arabia, Russia, uh, they now are reaching bankruptcy levels in terms of their finances. And also, we know that some of these countries they run a lot of sovereign funds which has got invested into emerging markets and and into other, you know, major uh, startups.
So, are we looking at a big change in equilibrium because now the Arabs and the Russians and the Kuwaitis and the Iraqis they will have to, uh, you know, liquidate some of their investments? Well, uh, Saudi Arabia is certainly got a problem now, huge problem. Because they have built up debt because they have all those people that they have to support.
Russia's different. Russia is a huge oil producer, you're exactly right, but Russia has other things. Russian agriculture, for instance, I own shares of Russian agriculture and fertilizer, as we speak. It's got a great future. Uh, America put sanctions on Russian on Russia. So, every morning Russian farmers wake up and say, "Thank you, Mr.
Trump. Thank you, Mr. Trump." Russian agriculture is booming. Then Russian has metals. Russia has other things besides oil and gas. So, yes, they will suffer, but there's some parts of Russia that will boom. But most oil producers, I mean Kuwait, Qatar, I mean these places have serious problems going for them, mainly because they built up huge cost structure.
It's very expensive to do anything there cuz they had so much money for so long. You should be very worried. I would not rush off to Mexico to make investments night right now or Nigeria, but some of the places like India, like China, like Korea that use a lot of oil, this is great for them. I mean, these guys wake up every morning and cannot believe how lucky they are.
Mr. Rogers, what is your view on the dollar? I own a lot of US dollars. I own US dollars because in times of trouble, turmoil, people look for a safe haven. Now, they think this US dollar is a safe haven for historic reason. It is not a safe haven. You ask, "Well, then why do you own it?" I own it because people think it is.
United States is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. No nation in world history has been this deep in debt and it's getting much worse every day. But, I own it because people will turn to the US dollar thinking it's a safe haven. If they look at the euro or the British pound or other currencies, they don't see anything worth that they think is worth investing in.
So, I own a lot of US dollars. What's going to happen? It's going to go higher. It's going to get overpriced during the turmoil, during the problems. It might even turn into a bubble, at which point I will have to sell my US dollars and put them somewhere else. Maybe gold, maybe silver. Often when the dollar gets very strong, gold and silver go down a lot or or don't go up a lot.
So, maybe I'll sell my US dollars and put it into gold and silver. But, the US dollar is going to go much higher because people are going to be very scared and they think the US dollar is a safe haven. Uh Mr. Rogers, one immediate follow-up question which comes to everyone's mind is that you always mentioned that markets they follow a pattern.
You know, it was Japan in '80s, US in '90s, it came back to China. Last 10 years were dominated by America. Do you think this coronavirus impact is going to ensure that the US economy remains in a tailspin for next couple of years and other economies will make a comeback? Well, some people are going I said countries for instance that rely on oil such as in which use oil such as India are going to be in much better shape now.
You're going to be a shift. You're going to see a serious shift. Japan is going to bene- Japan has many other problems, but this is going to help Japan with their problems. Germany, countries they're major countries in the world that are going to benefit from this and it's going to cause a shift towards those countries.
The oil producers are going to be in trouble. Some of them are going to absolutely collapse. The companies will collapse, but places like India looks aren't looking for investments in India, Vietnam, China, Japan, Korea. These are places that are going to have a a bonanza. Not a bonanza, but they're certainly going to have a gift from the fact that oil is down and oil is going to stay down for a while.
What's going to happen is oil is going to make a complicated bottom. We will look back in a few years and say, oh well, in 2018, 19, 20, 21, 22 oil made its bottom. Then oil will go higher again, but in the meantime this is nirvana for many countries and many companies. Unexpected by the way, completely unexpected.
If you had said on ET a year ago and I didn't, but if you had that oil will be $20 a barrel people would have hung up. But, here it is. What could be implications of coronavirus on international trade relationships, trade war? Do you think now there could be a geopolitical war which could be simmering or I'm getting too too cautious right now?
No, the consequences it's already leaving a bad taste in some people's mouths. In America, there are many people who are strongly anti-China and this is just encouraging them. Whether they have a sound foundation for being anti-China is irrelevant. It is increasing the anti-Chinese feeling in the US and in some countries.
So, you're going to see Mr. Trump later will come back with his trade war. Mr. Trump thinks trade wars are good. He thinks he can win. He does not know history. And if he does know history, he thinks he's smarter than history. But, Mr. Trump will come back with more trade wars. Going to especially against China, but also Japan, Germany, I mean, Mexico, everybody.
Mr. Trump is not going to blame problems on Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump has never said that he'd made a mistake. So, he's going to blame it on other people and the trade war is going to get worse. But, I believe in India, I mean, he was having a trade war with India, too, for some strange reason. Uh but, the countries that have not been devastated by the virus and they can continue to produce and that are you consumers of oil, such as India, are going to be in better shape when this is over, despite the anti-trade or the trade war which will be coming out of America.
Listen, I don't like saying any of this. I'm an American citizen. I hate it, but I have to deal with facts, not desires. Fair point. Okay, last question, sir. We've extended our appointment with you. You've been very generous with your time today. If Mr. Rogers has to identify one long-term structural short, where you think asset prices will only keep on going lower and lower in coming years, what would be that asset market or that trade? The United States bond market. The United States government bond market.
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