저자: 미상 · 외국인
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Vijay Kedia가 매수한 SME IPO 종목 Mahamaya Life Sciences를 다룸. IPO가 115~116에서 거의 두 배까지 올랐으나 외부 매수에 의존하며 펀더멘털 대비 과열 우려. 재고 급증(16억→50억 루피 수준), EPS 희석, 매출 집중(상위 10개 고객 80%), 몬순 의존 리스크 지적. 6개월 락업 해제 후 기관 매도 가능성 언급. 본 종목은 대상 자산 목록에 없어 예측 대상 없음.
다듬은 글
Hello friends, welcome to my channel named Money Lens. In Money Lens, we talk about news related to the stock market. So let's get started. So today's video is going to be on a stock on which Vijay Kedia ji is quite bullish and has recently created a very good position in it. So what would be their mentality that they have bought this stock and whether it will give you some good returns in the future or not, we will know all this in this video today.
So, first of all, let us tell you that all the stocks mentioned on this channel are not buy or sell recommendations. If you are telling all this just to inform you. This has nothing to do with investment. So let's get started. So today you see that Vijay Kedia ji has made a very good bet on Mahamaya Life Sense and it has given a good move since the last few days since the IPO came.
Look here, this IPO came at 115-116 and you can see that now it has almost reached the stage of doubling. So what happened now is that whenever any new IPO comes, especially the SME IPO, the company people want that the name of the biggest investors should be there in it, so now no one can tell whether Mahamaya Life must have told Vijay Kedia ji that brother, you buy it so that it will be easier for me to hide my money or Vijay Kedia ji has invested after thinking carefully because he must have seen the future of Mahamaya Life Science in the coming time that it is possible that from here it may double or triple.
So now let's take a look at its financials. Let's also look at the technical aspects a bit. Look, you should understand one thing here that as soon as the IPO breaks out, many institutions also come there and by continuously buying it, they pull it towards themselves. As you can see in this stock also, after the IPO it moved a little upwards and after that as soon as it was known that Vijay Kedia sahab has maintained a good position in it but that too is less than 1%, it must be around 5 to 7 crores, some must have been purchased due to which retail investors have entered in large numbers and now see this is an SME IPO of about 1200 quantity, so invest in it after thinking very carefully because see the biggest dangerous thing about SME IPO is that it grows fast but when it is not able to match its earnings and in a few days you must have seen that there was a similar company Nirman, that too, understand that it has come to the verge of bankruptcy.
Where did that stock of Rs 400-500 fall to Rs 40-50. So that was also an SME IPO and this Mahamaya Life Science is also an SME IPO and it is also in the agriculture business. So you guys should invest in it wisely. The second thing is that now let us go into its fundamentals. See, today a rally of around 15 to 16% has come in Mahamaya Life Sciences.
But all this is just external buying. Once the outside buyers stop buying, it will not be enough for the company to survive even a little because the real status of the company becomes known only after the buying ends. Look there, your stock is also around 33. ROE is very good. If it is 34% and the sales growth is double that, then brother, if the ROE is only 34.
If its sales are double then somewhere in the future it will have to dilute its equity because its sales and profit growth is more than the space in which the company is growing. So, as far as the promoters of Mahamaya Life Science are concerned, look here, there are promoters here. First Indian is the promoters.
Look here, Krishnamurthy ji has told that in the coming time, my plant which is in Dahej, Gujarat, has reached almost 100% utilization. So now if they want to achieve fresh sales and profit growth, they will have to do capex. You see, IPO has been brought for this very reason because we were already saying that somewhere or the other you will have to do the equivalent.
So, you brought this IPO because you need to further increase what you have to offer in terms of profit growth and sales growth. Look, he needs fresh capital. Where will I get fresh capital ? You will get it from the market. To bring it from the market, they brought IPO and since then see, FIA has invested around 6.39 and DI around 4.67.
But you should see that after 6 months of the IPO, the real value of that stock becomes clear. Because the institutional buyers and those who want an exit, for which the IPO is brought, they are made to wait for 6 months because there is a lock-in period. Only after the lock-in period, it becomes known whether this stock will go up or down because as soon as the lock-in period ends, one-sided selling starts and the stock starts moving downwards.
As you might have seen in Bajaj Housing Finance also, at times it was coming around 100, 150, 160. Now see, it has come around 95 because the institutional buyers who were involved in it are now slowly coming out of it. So you will have to think about this thing also. Ok? The second thing is that their dead days are also continuously increasing.
Also see the inventory, it is continuously increasing. So you will have to look at all these things also because look at the disabilities, there are too many here. Moving from 18 crores to 20 crores inventory, also look at the inventory. Oh my god, the inventory is around Rs 50 crore. Where they had inventory of around 16 crores, which has increased to 50 crores, so the sales that they have shown, is it only of inventory, the way they have shown sales, 161 in 2024, after that the sales growth of 100 crores, the sales growth of 100 crores that has come from last year to this year, all these things are also there.
Showing sales growth. But you are adding Rs 49 crore to the inventory. So somewhere your sales growth was only Rs 50 crore. So look at all these things here, look at the EPS, this thing here is EPS only 7.28 because equity has been invested. Where the EPS i.e. a shareholder was getting ₹41 for one share before the IPO, it has reduced to around 7.5 lakh.
So you will have to look at all these things also. Ok? The second thing is what does this company do? So the company earns money in three or four ways. The first one is insecticides, herbicides and here you can see crop protection, asol pesticides, plant nutrition and special chemicals. As their promoters have told that their Hema Benzoide Hem is their main drug, the main medicine is a benzoate for crop protection, which is their star product, which is basically Emacitin Benzoate, here they mainly make this medicine and mainly out of its top line of Rs 264 crores, you must have seen, 60 to 70% is sold only for B2B business i.e.
business to business. Then from there they make their own product, put their own label on it and sell it. That means their deals are only business to business. So the problem with business to business deals is that you don't have any margin. Look here the margin will be very low. Look at this, the operating margin will be less.
See, the operating margin is low, it is 9%. But this shows that the company is doing B2B business. Not B to C. If B2B is doing B2C but B2C is only 40% of its top line and mainly B2B as the promoters have told that in B2B, none of our inventory gets stuck and payment is done immediately. The problem with B2C is that since there is money in it, you will find such a dealer somewhere.
You will find a shopkeeper who will not give you money. So in this way the money gets stuck in the market. But what is there in B2B? You place a bulk order and are paid after the bulk supply is made. If you do not get the payment, you can go anywhere, you can go to the Supreme Court, you can go to the High Court.
Due to which that company can be declared bankrupt. But right now you see it is in B2B business. So its operating margin is low. So actually, there is one more thing which is a risk, the risk is that 80% of their revenue comes from their top 10 clients. So their portfolio is quite concentrated, 80%, suppose if there is a problem in one company or there is a default, then their production line and the people to whom they are supplying will also be affected and secondly, these crop cutting companies make crop related products from insecticides and herbicides, so the biggest problem is that all this is monsoon dependent, if the monsoon is good and things are good, if the monsoon is good, the crop will be good, then their sales will also be good, but if the monsoon is bad, then their sales will be greatly affected, so all this will also have to be seen because as soon as the monsoon comes and there is a delay or some problem occurs, which is quite likely to happen, then this stock will fall one way and then it will become very difficult for you to get out from there.
So this was a small discussion on Mahamaya Life Science, Mahamaya Life Science Limited. If you liked it, then do write a comment below. Yes, thank you, yes and thank you. Before writing anything, let me tell you that if you are new to this channel, then do subscribe to the channel. Thank you. Have a nice day.
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