저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 애크먼은 장기 가치투자자로서 특정 종목의 단기 방향은 예측할 수 없다고 강조하며, 공매도 리서치 공개와 헤지펀드 투명성을 옹호하고 Herbalife 공격을 이어간다. 주요 주장: 인수합병이 무산되는 사례가 많고 주주에게 결정권을 주는 것이 바람직하다고 말한다. 이번 Allergan 건에서도 주주 판단에 맡겼다고 설명한다. 전략 및 투자 방식: 헤지펀드 중 시장중립형은 드물게 성공하며 자신은 주로 롱온리(long-only)와 소수 집중투자를 한다. CP, Mondelez, Howard Hughes는 수년간 보유했으며 앞으로도 가치가 커질 것으로 본다. 단기 예측: 다음 달이나 연말 주가 수준은 예측할 수 없다고 명시한다. 원유·원자재 가격 변동은 단기 주가에 영향을 주지만 기업 가치(현재가치)에는 장기적으로 큰 영향이 없다고 본다. 공매도 및 언론 관련: 공매도 리서치를 공개하는 행위가 사실상 사설 규제자 역할을 한다는 기사에 반박한다. Lumber Liquidators, Lehman, Herbalife 사례를 들어 공매도 공개가 소비자와 시장에 이익이라고 주장한다. 리스크/조건: 기사에 사실 오류가 많다고 주장하며, 헤지펀드 실제 활동은 공개 자료로 투명하다고 말한다. Herbalife 관련: 회사의 'Casa Herbalife' 기부 프로그램이 실제로는 유통업자 세금 혜택 등 사기적 성격이 있다고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
every day you read about deals which don't happen I mean you look at you know transactions where Cheryl is are supportive the choirs prepared to pay a big premium in fact many of these deals or stock deals where the Cheryl's get to continue in the value creation and a board rejects it and they don't happen and the acquiring company you know walks away having spent hundred million dollars two hundred million dollars when you consider all the financing commitments everything they need to get I mean what we did in allergan is we we called the question and allowed shareholders to decide what they wanted to do with the future of their business and I think that there are requires who'd like to you know come easily we'd like to buy their transactions that don't happen for social issues I think we can help catalyze so I think it's very likely we will partner with another strategic to make a bid for a business and we may not get it but you know if the outcome for shareholders is the business either improves on its own or it gets sold to someone else I think that's a win those were great returns this summer has not been great for you nor that had been for most of the hedge fund industry and last year was us huge returns what is the end of the year look like for you and what do you think it could look like for people in your business and if it if it turns out to be negative what do you think it does to the business truck okay I think people call us a hedge fund then they call the whole category I mean I think what we need to do a few things one is from an industry perspective we need to explain a little bit better but our hedge fund is now there are some funds that are designed to not lose money almost in any market condition there's no call it market neutral knife I think they're very few that actually work but there's some that are successful in that model in a down seven percent month for a market neutral funds like a disaster we're really principally a long-only fun with the exception of Herbalife Leon concentrated positions and companies we own them for years you know CP we've owned right you know for four years we'll probably owned it for many more years Howard Hughes effectively on for seven years so we don't I can't tell you where any of our stocks are going to be next month I mean it's certainly I can't even tell you we're going to be at the end of the year but I can tell you is that the businesses we Mondelez will be a much more valuable company you know a year from now that it is today and two years from now it can be even more valuable and CP is going to be a much more valuable company what's interesting about coming like CP you know stock Craig moves up and down based on oil prices and commodity prices but if you what is the value of a business it's the present value of the cash the business generates over the lot over its life you know the price of oil in the short term doesn't have a particularly meaningful impact on that calculation but it seems have a big impact on the stock price so volatility is an opportunity for long-term investors to buy more at attractive prices or in case of CP they're buying more of the company no I almost feel like you're a split personality on the one hand you are a long-term investor on the other hand you are a big activist so they could what do you can think of yourself at I mean activists are long-term investors I mean the not out of them not all then i look again i think there's a spectrum is just like hedge fund managers mutual fund managers what we do is you know ten years ago people accused us of being short term we had been in business for a year hard to prove it we sort of long-term investor you know that when you're moving around 20 billion dollars it's hard to do that constantly buying and selling things you're much better off buying super high quality companies and making them better I think the most important thing about this article if you basically says short sellers who share their views publicly something very wrong with that it's effectively as you say a hedge fund becoming a private regulator as opposed to people talking up sacks available right that's right and I think that is absurd right look at lumber liquidators I'll take myself out of it right so whitney tilson goes public in a year ago and says this company is shipping formaldehyde laced product that can cause cancer and harm ignored by the markets it took a a 60 minutes piece which Whitney obviously was the protagonist in but they did their own research as well to ultimately alert the world stock went from over a hundred ology shared today at 15 the cummington forced to withdraw this product or under investigation by a whole bunch of regulators I think the consumers have benefited the shareholders who sold when they when Whitney went out with his piece I've been kind of fishers look at David Einhorn Lehman right Akane public and said this company Thunder capitalized they need to recapitalize Lehman ignored him yeah he'd been continued to buy back stock you know is that David was market manipulation i think was the word that was used well had the company recapitalised women might have made it through the financial crisis shareholders might have gotten something out of their investment and lehman look at Jim Chanos on anyone so I think that you know anything what's interesting the article and again there are lots of factual problems with the article which which we can address but the this is an inherently healthy phenomenon what's interesting with the articles the last sentence he talks about is it right for a sort of hedge fund managers operating behind closed doors and private meetings you know there's nothing close to our practice about our investment nerve life by that we gave the most public most transparent presentation three and 50 slides multiply presentations with a website with every piece of research we've done plus all the source documents isn't that an incredibly healthy thing you know for market transparency so I think it's really disagree reporters can write whatever they want to write I respect that you know for someone who spent clearly an enormous amount of time 12,000 word article to come to i think i'm serge conclusion disappointment really i'll give you a little fun fact which might help people discern this company is operating fraudulently so among the facts that he reports in the story his Herbalife is running a hundred and one orphanages in 51 countries around the world now the only place for him to get that faculty Herbalife verbalize have something called Casa Herbalife and it's sort of their philanthropy what it is is they give a blender or two to children's organization in the country and they this product that can't distributors can't sell they check a box an Herbalife donates the product to these 101 little places around the world and it's fed two small children no III don't know whether small children in Africa should be drinking this you know protein shake for mobile I thought that's a medical question but the notion that they're running orphanages you know I just think that if I were a reporter I would focus on that I go go into these cops or blocks I do it I wouldn't ask for Herbalife telomeric them where the model ones are located but I go see that one I think it's more tax fraud than for distributors than it is helping
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