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아크인베스트가 2020년 11월 16~20일 주간에 매수한 신규 종목 3개(JD.com, 테슬라, 실버게이트캐피털)를 분석한 영상이다. 결론적으로 세 종목 모두 훌륭하다고 평가하며, 그중 테슬라와 실버게이트를 고르겠다고 밝혔다. [JD.com] 중국 최대 온라인 리테일 기업으로 2019년 매출 약 822억 달러, 최근 3년 연평균 성장률 약 30%로 소개. 중국 공산당의 반독점 조치 가능성이 리스크이며, 아직 투자하지 않았지만 향후 포지션을 잡을 수 있다고 언급. [테슬라] 아크의 평균 매수가 약 408달러 대비 주가가 585달러로 한 주 만에 약 69% 상승. S&P500 편입 소식이 배경. 배터리데이 발표(테라와트시급 생산, 배터리 원가 절감, 네바다 기가팩토리 한계 등)를 근거로 성장 가능성을 강조. [테슬라 보수적 시나리오] 2022년 연 240만 대 생산, 차량 매출 약 1,200억 달러, FSD(완전자율주행) 매출 약 150억 달러 가정 시 총매출 약 1,350억 달러. 에너지 사업이 차량 사업과 같은 규모로 성장하면 약 2,700억 달러. 2019년 매출 244.8억 달러 대비 연 76% 성장이 필요하다는 계산. 현재 가격이 오히려 싸다고 판단하며 가장 큰 포지션 중 하나로 만들 계획을 밝힘. [실버게이트캐피털] 2013년부터 암호화폐 거래소에 달러 수탁 서비스를 제공해 온 은행. Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp, Circle 등을 고객으로 보유하며 24/7 결제 네트워크 운영. 매출은 3,558만 달러에서 8,745만 달러로 성장(연평균 약 35%). 향후 포지션을 잡을 수도 있다고 언급. [리스크] 테슬라 베어(공매도 측)의 주가 하락(100달러) 주장 존재, 중국 반독점 규제, 암호화폐 산업 의존도 등이 언급됨. 진행자는 밸류에이션은 성장률을 따라간다는 원칙을 강조.
다듬은 글
is is episode 6 of what our converse bought this week as you all know every weekday arc invest releases a list of stocks purchased and sold for their etfs and if you didn't know that but you're interested in seeing that list then check out episode one for how to get access to it in this episode i will analyze the stocks purchased in the week of november 16 to november 20 and which i haven't previously analyzed in terms of repeat purchases these are stocks that have previously analyzed and which are conversely purchased in the week of november 16 to november 20.
i don't propose to go through this in any detail but i'll leave those on the screen if you wish to see them then you can pause the video if you'd like to see my analysis on those stocks then feel free to check out those videos the link will be in the description box below now on to the new stock purchases quite unusually there were only three new purchases in the week of november 16-20 which is a very welcome relief for me given that i have had to review 11 stocks in the past just for one video anyway enough of that let's get to it the first of the three stocks is jd.com ticker symbol nasdaq jd purchased by arkhamvest on november 16 for 2.1 million dollars the ceo is richard liu jr.com can be best described as the amazon of china it really is that big jd.com is china's largest online retailer and it is also the country's biggest internet company by revenue and the third largest buy revenue in the world only behind amazon and google it has an unrivaled nationwide fulfillment network which covers 99 of china's population and provides standard same-day and next-day delivery which again is very similar to amazon it also has a b2c model which is business to customer model where it sells products directly to customers and it has a b2b model which is where it has a retail marketplace for smaller sellers to sell their products on jd.com again just like how small sellers in the us sell through fba which is also known as fulfilled by amazon jd.com also has its own dedicated web services and has a team of ai professionals to rival the likes of microsoft's azure amazon's aws and google's cloud overall it's safe to say that this is one of the e-commerce behemoths of the world now looking at jelly.com's revenue and growth as i said earlier on its revenue as an e-commerce company is only behind google and amazon it generated a whopping 82.2 billion dollars in revenue in 2019 and grew at a compound annual growth rate of 30 percent over the last three years that is incredible for such a huge company it is yet to be seen whether the antitrust action being considered by the chinese communist party will be put into effect and if it is then as well as the bat stocks it may affect jd.com also let's watch this space and see what happens i'm not yet invested but i may well take a position in the future the next stock is tesla ticker symbol nasdaq tsla akinvest purchased 4.4 million dollars worth of tesla stocks on november 16.
the ceo is elon musk i finally get to do an analysis of tesla and i'm super pumped about this one and it's definitely not one to be missed so let me start off by saying that it is very interesting that ark invest bought more shares in tesla as an average price of 408 dollars give or take on november 16 and no doubt this was later justified because already the price has gone up to 585 which is a whopping 69 increase in the share price in just a week and of course that is because of the news that tesla will be included in s p 500 now there are a lot of people who are extremely skeptical about tesla and its valuation these are the tesla beers of course some of these beers are even predicting that the share price will drop to as low as a hundred dollars well as for me i'm not going to sit here and argue about movement and share price here or there in the short term my general philosophy on this channel has always been that a company's growth will inevitably be matched by its valuation the faster a company grows the higher the valuation is likely to be that is a fundamental truth we need not bother ourselves about exactly what that valuation will be but we know that if it grows fast then its valuation will be higher than what it is today that being said let's now take a look at tesla i think the significance of tesla battery day was lost in a lot of people so i've picked out the very key points of battery day and compiled it into a small exposition so that it can really hit home what exactly this company's ambitions are for the future now whether they're able to execute is a completely different matter altogether but it is the clarity in their path to future growth that must be applauded and i'll explain why a little bit later but for now take a look at the video i've only included a three-minute clip from my condensed version of battery day which i have linked in the description below just in case you want to see the full 15 minute cut and it is definitely worth a watch but for now here's a three minute clip and we'll see the shanghai factory continue to scale quite a bit from where it is right now i think we really could expect that to be over time a factory that produces over a million vehicles a year we also introduced the lowest cost solar in the u.s it's only a dollar forty nine or what the value of tesla is going to be like total just on the vehicle side total vehicles produced times the value of autonomy don't even look good of tesla it's like if you look back in history and say what what good did tesla do um the good will be to what you know by how many years did we accelerate sustainable energy that's like the true metric of of success tesla's contribution we've delivered over a million electric vehicles 26 billion um electric miles driven uh and uh many gigawatt hours of stationary batteries uh 17 terawatt hours of solar generated the three parts of a sustainable energy future are sustainable energy generation storage and electric vehicles so winter play a significant role in all three goal number one is a terawatt hour scale battery production terra is the new giga we're talking about 100x growth in batteries for electric vehicles to achieve this mission you basically need on the order of roughly 10 terawatt hours a year of battery production uh to transition the the global fleet of of vehicles to electric and the average vehicle lasts 15 years so we're talking about 150 terawatt hours give or take during the transition the whole electric all vehicles of all types uh two electric and then on the grid side 1600 times growth from today's grid batteries to go 100 renewable on the grid and to take all of the existing heating fossil fuel uses in homes and businesses 100 electric roughly uh 20 uh to 25 a terawatt hours per year sustained uh for 15 to 25 years to transition the world to uh renewable gig in nevada um 150 gigawatt hours per year is like what we probably expect to make out of there but this is really pretty small in the grand scheme of things that's only 0.15 terawatt hours we would need 135 fully built out nevada gigafactories to achieve 20 terawatt hours a year it's not scalable enough of a solution we need a dramatic rethink of the cell manufacturing system to to scale as fast as we can and should go to obviously we need to make uh more affordable cars in order to do that um we've got to get the cost of batteries down to make the best cars in the world we design vehicles and factories from the ground up and now we do this for batteries as well we have a plan to have the cost per kilowatt hour and it's not a plan that rests on a single innovation some research project that'll never see the light of day it's a plan that has taken creative engineering and industrialization across every facet of what makes a cell into a battery pack from raw material to the finished thing now with all of that in mind let us take a look at an extremely conservative case and let's say that none of their goals come to fruition as set out in that two-minute clip of battery day even with that there are still two scenarios in which the future growth prospects for tesla does not favor the beers let's take this in turn the first conservative scenario is as follows tesla has already reached 590 000 vehicle production at the fremont factory alone then add to that the 250 000 vehicles from the half complete giga shanghai factory they are also in the process of building giga berlin and giga austin so on the basis of these tangibles that we have right now you can say that they would make 600 000 vehicles in each factory by 2022 that means 0.6 million each in shanghai berlin texas and fremont given a total annual vehicle production of 2.4 million by 2022 at the very least the value of tesla's vehicle segment is the vehicle times price of autonomy once autonomy is fully complete and functional that price can easily double and going by the most recent version of fsd beta released to the select few beta testers dojo has significantly improved and really it's not far from being fully autonomous however putting that aside and remember we're remaining conservative so let's say it is only sold for ten thousand dollars and let's say there's only 65 adoption of full self driving that still equates to 15 billion dollars just for full self driving now for the vehicles based on the above estimate it will produce 2.4 million vehicles a year taking a very conservative average price of let's say fifty thousand dollars per vehicle they would generate a revenue of 120 billion dollars add those sales to the fsd sales and that will give you a total revenue of 135 billion a year by 2022.
compare that to the revenue for all of tesla in 2019 which was 24.48 billion dollars that equates to a compound annual growth of 76 over the next three years that is only based off of just a vehicle segment if you ask me that even on a conservative case is a huge growth rate from where we are today then on a conservative bull case if the energy business energy generation and energy storage is equally as successful as the vehicle segment and personally i would count success as generating an equal revenue as the auto segment which would therefore be another 135 billion dollars this could make it 270 billion dollars in annual revenue by 2022 on a conservatively bullish case now i don't need to speculate on an ultra ball case because anything over and above that is just pure bonus put it simply this company has the potential to grow big time and we're only at the beginning of this growth tesla is the one company that has a very clear path for how it proposes to scale and grow its business if it executes perfectly and is able to generate two terabyte hours of battery power per year then the growth rate becomes simply exponential either way there is significant growth ahead and so looking at that you could argue that the stock is actually cheap at this current price i plan to make this one of my biggest positions because i happen to think that the company is able to execute the final stock is silvergate capital corp n-y-s-e-s-i arc invest purchased 2.2 million dollars worth of shares on november 17 and 18.
the ceo is alan lane this is a really fascinating company with a really great story behind it this is one of those companies that really helped the whole cryptocurrency project on its way to what it has become today back in 2013 many of the newly formed cryptocurrency exchanges were looking for a bank where they could keep custody of their dollars but many mainstream banks turned them down however silvergate bank embraced them and took the time to research cryptocurrency and became the bank for cryptocurrency exchanges and that relationship has remained to date and now they have as their clients one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world such as coinbase kraken bitstamp trust token paxos and circle these big exchanges as well as other big players in the crypto space such as hedge funds miners and crypto asset managers or utilize the silvergate exchange network which unlike a traditional bank is accessible 24 7 365 days a year and if you've ever purchased the cryptocurrency before you will know that you can actually purchase them at night the weekends at any time and that phenomena is attributable to silvergate bank i think it is fair to say that this company has been innovative and has enabled the crypto space to really thrive as for the company's growth it has gone from 35.58 million dollars to 87.45 million dollars which means that it has grown at a 35 percent compound annual growth rate over the past three years this is without a doubt a great business with a huge dose of goodwill amongst this customer base in the crypto space and that of course goes a very very long way as for me i may well take up a position in this company at some point in the future all three companies i've reviewed in this video are great and impressive but if i had to choose two i would go for tesla and silvergate capital hope you've enjoyed this video if you have then of course do like comment and subscribe and also i just want to send a big thank you to all of my new subscribers i really appreciate your patronage and it really does help the channel grow and for those of you who are new and yet to subscribe then of course please do hit that subscription button and like the video so we can get this out to more people thank you very much and i'll see you on the next video
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