저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
요약 보기
우드는 테슬라 매출이 최근 5년간 연평균 약 48% 복리 성장했다고 강조하며, 전기차 총소유비용이 가솔린차 아래로 떨어졌고 보험도 포함된다고 설명했다. 그녀는 전기차 판매 성장을 보되 가치의 약 2/3는 로보택시(자율주행 라이드헤일링)에서 나온다고 보며, 2027년 로보택시 매출 연 약 2000억 달러 가능성을 제시했다. 테슬라 주가 목표는 2027년 1,400달러(기본), 강세 시나리오 2,000~2,500달러 수준으로 언급됐다. 한편 ARK가 최근 테슬라 주식 약 9만7천 주(약 2,500만 달러)를 매도한 점은 포트폴리오 관리 차원이라고 설명했고, 그녀는 장기 낙관을 유지한다고 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
uh we do believe it is that big. Uh so if you look at the revenue growth the last five years it's compounded at roughly 48% per year and that and that was uh as you recall when Tesla was experiencing a quite a bit of controversy. We do think it's that huge. So if you look at the revenue growth over the last 5 years, it's compounded at about 48% annually and that was h as you may remember when Tesla was going through a lot of turmoil.
Elon Musk the CEO of Tesla is not a fan of unions but he may be quietly supporting Shaane the leader of the United Auto Workers as he pushes bold contract demands. Exchange traded funds tracking automakers saw net outflows last month due to concerns over UAW strikes against the Detroit 3 and higher interest rates.
Production at General Motors, Ford and Chrysler parents has suffered as a UAW strike entered its 20th day just a few days ago. Some are certain that this would benify in a research note. Dan Ive stated that Tesla is well positioned to profit from any work stoppage at its rivals. He added, "I think this is going to be the most severe and the most dramatic strike in 50 years." Let's talk about EVs and not just Tesla.
If a strike occurs, production and the EV road map could ultimately be pushed out into 2024 and delays would be on the horizon at this crucial period for GM Ford and Stalantis Wedbush. Is the current situation in Detroit good news for Tesla? Yes, because if there's a strike, there will undoubtedly be more production shortages.
However, I believe that the supply chain has just cleared up. So, regrettably, we will have a lot of questions about that. However, I don't think it has anything to do with the strike. Rather, I think it is everything to do with a shift in consumer preferences towards better electric cars that are getting cheaper.
I believe that Tesla is benefiting from this price fall since it is just passing cost reductions on to its customers. In the meantime, Eric Gordon, a business professor at the University of Michigan, told W&M Barkclay's analyst Dan Levy that a strike was very likely to hurt the Detroit automakers bottom lines.
According to the Anderson Economic Group, a 10-day strike against GM, Ford, and Satis would cost them almost $1 billion, and the automakers had almost 2 million vehicles on hand at the end of July. A 3-w week or longer work stoppage would swiftly deplete the excess. Raising car costs and increasing sales to non-union brands.
Analyst Amonyi told the Associated Press in a recent CNBC's Fast Money segment. Kathy would talk about her views on Tesla, where she predicted that Tesla stock would skyrocket to $1,400 or more by 2027. Notably, Wood's $1,400 price target for Tesla is her bare case of the stock. She thinks it's likely that Tesla's share price will rise significantly higher than that over the next four years.
The complaint we hear is that people can't afford these vehicles. Uh what's news in the UK? As you can see, Reishi Sun is pushing back targets to get rid of all of these internal combustion engines to 2035 from 2030. Are we being unrealistic about transition and how there's going to be no no we do not think so we actually the total cost of ownership now this is in the United States is a little bit different here but the total cost of ownership of an electric vehicle fell below that of a gas powered vehicle about 2 to 3 years ago soon sticker prices does that include insurance yes includes insurance yes as I mentioned there are local differences but in the US insurance is included in fact Tesla is so confident that his cars will have fewer accidents and fewer fatalities that is willing to offer insurance.
So yes, that covers everything. What does however predict strong sales growth for Tesla's electric vehicles, but she told Melissa Lee of CNN that EVS only accounts for about onethird of AR's projected valuation for Tesla. The other two/3s is related to autonomous vehicles specifically because she thinks that Tesla has a huge opportunity in autonomous ride hailing also known as robo taxis.
In a report published in April, Aaron Ves explained that Tesla could make about $200 billion in net revenue annually from autonomous ride hailing by 2027. It should be noted that this is a case and even though Tesla does not currently have a robo taxi service, ARK expects a company to launch one relatively soon with 2024 as the most likely timing in the said CNBC interview which stated that Tesla is in the poll position here in the United States.
What argues that Tesla has more data than all the other autonomous vehicle companies combined. She pointed out that texting while driving is a major problem in the US and that human error is by far the leading cause of auto accidents. Wood believes that switching to artificial intelligence power vehicles can help solve these issues, claiming that Tesla drivers are 40% safer than drivers of other vehicles when using autopilot and FSD.
You might be wondering if a return of more than 5x 2027 is possible since AR Invest revealed in April that it research revealed that Tesla's FSD is 5x safer than a manually driven Tesla adjusted for use on ordinary city streets only with unsupported argument for Tesla. What is the stock's bull case?
According to Air Invest Bull Model, Tesla's share price might soar by almost nine and a half times the $2,500 over the course of the next four years. Tesla's robo taxi revenue could grow to more than 600 billion by 2027. Understandably, many argue that wouldbe's price target for Tesla is also unrealistic.
However, if her assumptions about the robo taxi market and Tesla's advantages in the market proved to be correct, so will her prediction about the stock is a well-known fact that Arc Invest founder Kathy was long been bullish on Tesla. However, recent selloff of the automaker shares have elicited some concerns from onlookers.
Fortunately, W discussed her reasoning for selling shares, adding that she's still optimistic on Tesla's long-term success and that the investment firm's confidence in the company has even increased throughout the year. Although it has sold off a significant number of Tesla shares in recent months, she reiterated her confidence in the stock in a Q&A session with Barons a few weeks back which said that the recent sell-offs were simply due to portfolio management adding that she still maintains a dollar 2000 price target on the automaker shares are confidence has increased since Tesla is cutting price would inform Barons that is one of the few automakers with the financial means to do so since it is lowering the cost curve of consumer electronic batteries which will harm other manufacturers whose prices are significantly higher.
However, the sell-offs weren't ignored. In fact, a few days ago, Kathy with Lou Arc Investment made a big move by selling more than $25 million worth of Tesla shares. Given ARK's prior optimistic stance on the electric car manufacturer, this decline is a significant change that suggests a sophisticated strategy to portfolio management amid changing market realities.
Through its flagship ARC Innovation ETF, ARC Autonomous Technology and Robotics ETF, and ARK Next Generation Internet ETF, ARK sold 97,599 shares of Tesla. The sale was valued at $25.49 $49 million based on a closing price of $261 2016 at the time when a value of Tesla stock increased by 5.9% over a 24-hour period.
The choice by Air Invest to sell off a sizable amount of Elon Musk stock highlights a strategic realignment. Given Kathy Wood's prior support Tesla, the fund's decision is especially noteworthy. The transaction might indicate that ARK's investment strategy has to be adjusted, perhaps in light of new market opportunities and trends.
Nevertheless, Tesla now controls almost 60% of the US electric vehicle industry. And this year, the Model Y became the bestselling car worldwide. Air Invest projects that 60 million EVs will be sold worldwide by 2027 with Tesla continuing to hold the top spot in the industry because of its autopilot and fully autonomous FSD beta systems which use data from human drivers to train its AI for a future of autonomy.
W also views Tesla as an artificial intelligence stock rather than only a vehicle firm. According to Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, autonomous driving could enable a future robot taxi industry that might produce huge profit margins comparable to those of software businesses. With states that she believes Tesla is still in a strong position to dominate the US market for autonomous taxi platforms in the future and that she anticipates a business would charge less for its services.
Wood's main focus in Arc's ambitious forecast for Tesla has been Uber or autonomy and she continues to believe the firm will surpass competitors in this regard, the competitiveness of Tesla. She said in the interview that no one has been able to accomplish this because they don't have nearly as much data.
The benefit is the billions of miles of realworld driving data is gathered. Would you use a train models to teach the car how to respond to uncommon scenarios?
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