저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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2023년 경기침체는 사실상 확실하며, 금리 인상 이후 인플레 재가속과 정책 전환이 반복되는 '실험'이 될 것이라는 Michael Burry의 경고를 중심으로 한 영상. 은행권 충격: SVB 파산이 2008년 이후 최대 은행 실패로 언급되며, 은행 신용 긴축이 경기 둔화를 가속할 것이라는 우려가 제기됨. 경기침체 전망: Burry는 2023년 미국이 어떤 기준으로 보아도 경기침체에 들어갈 것이라고 주장. 2H 2023 CPI 하락(마이너스 가능성)과 함께 연준 금리 인하 전환, 정부 부양책이 맞물려 인플레가 재상승할 것이라고 예상. 경제 지표 근거: 소비가 GDP의 2/3를 차지하는데 2023년 소비 증가는 미미할 전망. 글로벌 GDP 성장률 0.3% 전망(2분기 연율 -0.7%). 개인저축률이 매우 낮아 투자 여력이 부족하고, 신용 긴축으로 차입도 줄어 투자 자금 유입이 위축될 것이라는 분석. 주식시장 리스크: 팬데믹 이후 이어진 '딥 매수' 심리가 끝나가고 있어 시장이 다시 하락할 경우 지지 세력이 없을 수 있다는 경고. 금리 상승이 지속되는 상황에서 큰 하락 구간 가능성을 제기. 전문가 의견: Bloomberg 조사(애널리스트 38명, 12월)에서 70%가 내년 경기침체를 예상(11월 65%에서 상승). Moody's Mark Zandi는 과거 인플레-금리인상 패턴이 침체로 이어졌다는 점을 들며, 연준이 과도하게 긴축하지 않으면 침체를 피할 수 있다는 소수 의견을 제시. 경기침체 정의: NBER 기준으로 심각도·범위·지속기간을 고려하며, 통상 최소 2분기 이상의 경기 후퇴로 설명됨. 2020년 팬데믹 침체도 짧았지만 충격이 커서 침체로 분류된 사례를 언급. 소비자 조언: Bezos의 조언을 인용해 소상공인과 개인은 대형 소비(TV, 냉장고, 자동차 등)를 잠시 미루고 리스크를 줄이라는 권고.
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a rough week for the banking industry the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank the second biggest bank collapse in U.S history people are wondering if there should have PTSD into 2008 svb financial group became the greatest bank failure since the financial crisis of 2008. why everyone thinks there is a recession coming in 2023 renowned investor Michael Berry who foresaw the 2008 financial crisis raises the alarm once more with a fresh warning about the impending 2023 recession in their predictions for this year economists have noted a recession however opinions on its timing and severity differ as long as inflation stays at a 40-year high consumers and investors are concerned about how much the cost of living will increase but whether the economy will experience a recession is the subject that worries everyone including the government markets and consumers the frightening word is the r word however there is little doubt among analysts today that a recession will occur in 2023 While most people refer to Michael Berry as a one-trick pony there is no denying that in more recent times he is also accurately predicted the massive financial crisis that occurred in the mid to late 2000s Michael Berry was one of the select few investors who accurately predicted the great U.S housing bubble that played out in the mid to late 2000s as depicted in The Big Short he bet big buying credit default swaps on subprime mortgage bonds personally profiting by about 100 million dollars from the collapse Spike in the middle six months of the year consumer spending which accounts for two-thirds of GDP is expected to barely increase according to median projections Global GDP will barely expand by 0.3 percent in 2023 that includes a quarterly annualized decline of 0.7 percent in the second quarter and no growth in the first or third according to Maria vasilu co-chief investment officer of multi-asset solutions at Goldman Sach Asset Management we expect that the FED will stay in restrictive policy for a while unless the effect on real GDP growth and unemployment becomes particularly severe and inflation has fallen close to Target the U.S is in a recession by any standard a recession has already been predicted by a number of corporate Titans including Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos my advice to individuals particularly small business owners is to eliminate some risks if you're going to buy something maybe wait a little longer Bezos advise in November if you are an individual and are considering purchasing a new large screen TV you might want to hold off and wait and see what happens the same goes for a new refrigerator or car let's eliminate some dangers the renowned investor Michael Berry who has emerged as wall Street's profit appears to concur with this dismal prognosis just now he made his first projections for 2023 and they are depressing regardless of the matter and how the term recession is used according to Barry the American economy will experience one in 2023.
on January 1 Barry posted on Twitter inflation peaked however this is not the Cycle's last peak in 2H 2023 the CPI is probably going to fall maybe even become negative and the U.S will likely be in a recession by any measure he continues by outlining a vicious Loop the federal government should unveil a stimulus program to Aid households Choke by the weakening economy while the Federal Reserve which has increased interest rates to a level unseen since the 2008 financial crisis with reverse course and decrease rates all of this will result in a subsequent spike in inflation much like what occurred during the covid-19 epidemic we will essentially witness a practice run for what happens after March 2020.
government will stimulate while the FED will slash and there will be another increase in inflation it's not difficult explains Barry various predictions in the past are legendary Barry became a household name as a result of the 2008 financial crisis one of the worst financial disasters in history as a result he became one of the role models for flouting accepted wisdom in the financial industry the investor in the 2015 movie The Big Short learns that the industry had turned into a sand castle as a result of financiers and bankers creating exotic products based on mortgages given to financially precarious households and borrowers with bad credit the investor had no prior knowledge of Finance or real estate therefore he made the decision to wager on the subprime mortgage Market's demise giving rise to the term Big Short History has proven him correct Barry who now oversees the hedge fund Scion Asset Management has developed into something of a Wall Street profit since then according to his Twitter account Cassandra BC he accepted this assignment he serves as a kind of party pooper for investors and Risk Takers Barry recently issued a warning that the economy was about to drastically worsen that there would soon be a wave of mass layoffs of white-collar workers and that the stock market which had enjoyed two years of success during the pandemic would soon face its worst test with interest rates currently rising steadily the consumer recession is confirmed by Trends in consumer spending and saving as you can see right now the personal savings rate is very low so on average Americans simply don't have any spare cash to put towards Investments as debts like mortgages and car loans become more expensive to service and with inflation also running hot and raising the cost of living this leaves very little money left over for anything else as you can see personal savings rates are currently very low as a result the average American doesn't have much extra money to invest and with credit likely to tighten as a result of the recent banking shocks there won't likely be much borrowing going on either which will only stifle cash inflows to Investments further there is a good deal of evidence that the dip mentality that has prevailed over the past few years May soon be coming to an end which would undermine Market support if the market begins to decline once more but there is no one to support it this could result in the scenario that Michael Berry has been foreseeing all along in which we experience yet another significant downslope Bloomberg surveyed 38 analysts in December and found that 70 percent of them predicted a recession for the next year this is up from 65 percent in November according to analysts the federal reserve's increased interest rates will reduce demand however they concur that the recession will be brought on by the federal reserve's interest rate policy despite the fact that the central bank was responsible for averting the last two recessions recessions typically come on suddenly according to Moody's Analytics analyst Mark zandi CEOs rarely discuss recessions CEOs are rushing to declare that a recession is about to begin everyone on TV mentions the recession recession says every Economist it's unlike anything I've ever seen according to Mark zandi Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics when inflation is high and the FED raises interest rates to combat it it typically results in a downturn or recession the typical overheated scenario that results in a recession always happens this story has been told before the economy eventually collapses under the weight of increased interest rates when inflation increases and the FED raises interest rates in response Zandy is one of the few economists who think the Federal Reserve can prevent a recession by hiking rates just slightly longer than necessary without stifling growth but he claimed that there are many predictions that the economy will tank a recession is regarded as a protracted period of economic decline that has an impact on the entire economy and normally lasts for at least two quarters the National Bureau of economic research the authorities on recessions takes into account the severity scope and duration of the downturn however the nber could declare a recession if any factor is significant enough for instance even though it lasted only a short time the pandemic downturn in 2020 was so abrupt acute and had a significant impact that it was classified as a recession a recession is regarded as a protracted period of economic decline that has an impact on the entire economy and normally lasts for at least two quarters foreign
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