DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach: Powell is right to say that inflation has declined a lot

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Gundlach는 연준이 금리를 동결하며 중립적 발표를 한 것은 시장 예상과 일치한다고 보며, 향후 추가 금리인상은 없을 가능성이 크다고 전망한다. 인플레이션 전망: 파월이 인플레이션이 많이 내려왔다고 한 말은 맞지만, 하락 속도는 둔화될 것이며 연내 CPI는 전년 대비 약 4% 수준일 것으로 본다. 이에 따라 연준은 현 금리 수준을 유지할 가능성이 높다. 은행 위기: SVB 사태 이후 예금이 금리 높은 곳으로 계속 빠져나갈 것이며, 이번 지역은행 문제가 마지막 장이 아니라고 본다. 1980년대 S&L 위기와 유사하다고 판단하며, 연준이 금리를 인하하지 않는 한 이 흐름을 멈출 요인이 보이지 않는다. 금리·시장 전망: 채권시장은 연내 금리인하를 반영하고 있으며 이는 경기침체 가능성이 높다는 자신의 견해와 일치한다. 10년물 금리가 3.37% 저항선을 돌파할 수 있으며, 경기침체가 오면 그 돌파가 실현될 가능성이 크다. 이번 안전자산 선호(flight to quality) 랠리가 국채 수익을 만드는 마지막 랠리일 수 있다고 생각한다. 위험자산 전망: 고금리, 양적긴축, 신용수축이 겹쳐 있어 위험자산에 대해 기존 중립~약한 낙관에서 점차 약세로 전환하고 있으며, 시장이 지나치게 안일하다고 평가한다. 연말로 갈수록 저품질 채권의 부도율 상승이 예상되므로 채권 포트폴리오는 고품질로 상향 이동해야 한다고 조언한다. 재정 리스크: 미국 재정적자는 GDP 대비 7%로, 아직 경기침체가 오기도 전에 부채 문제가 크게 불거질 것을 우려한다. 금리 정책 평가: 연준이 금리를 너무 천천히 올렸고, 초기에 200bp 정도 크게 올렸어야 했다고 본다. 오늘 동결은 한계적으로 실수라고 보지만, 시장은 이미 이를 충분히 반영했다고 평가한다. 연준이 다시 금리를 올리지는 않을 것이라고 강하게 본다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. the decision today well it was very non-committal and I think the market really anticipated that that you know uh the idea that they're not going to make a decision or a prediction or any inclination about what's going to happen at the next meeting is completely consistent with the way the market and the treasury market has been priced I did I did think like Steve leesman it was a little bit of a hawkish uh kind of background tone to it he sounds very Resolute he's certain that uh not stepping away at all from the two percent inflation commitment he's right to say that inflation's come down a lot and it's not going to come down as quickly anymore in fact we believe at double line that the low inflation print is probably going to be this year around four percent on a year-over basis for the CPI so that would that would imply that the FED is going to keep rates around the level that they're at now unless some something goes wrong with the economy which is certainly not a low probability outcome we've had these bank failures this is what I talked about in the aftermath of svb Scott when we talked about how Rising interest rates are something that people aren't used to not not used to Rising interest rates and then going up and then staying there for a protracted period of time and it's going to have different ramifications than what most people's professional experience has taught them and that's certainly the case with these back failures I mean these these people are pulling money out because there's absolutely no reason to keep their money in you can get higher interest rates by a lot thanks to the fed's 500 basis point interest rate increases you can get bills at 5.2 percent for a couple of months and you know the two-year treasury has fallen over 100 basis points in the aftermath of these bank failures but it just seems to me that the deposits are going to keep drifting out and I don't think that this this it's the last chapter in this Regional banking problem it's Harkens back to the SNL crisis way back when when we had high interest rates and these these snls were losing their deposits this is kind of the same phenomena and I don't really see what's going to make it stop unless the FED is going to cut interest rates which there's no inclination of cutting interest rates in the next meeting and the bond market says that there's not going to be any more rate hikes and that there's going to be Cuts almost assuredly by the end of this year and that's consistent with my view that we've talked about in past appearances that recessionary odds are pretty darn high right now the chairman was smart saying we've got 500 basis points of interest rate increases we've got credit contraction with the banking problem we've got quantitative tightening all these things have have led me to having been relatively neutral to somewhat uh optimistic or tinged towards optimism on risk assets ever since really last September so I'm really turning more bearish at this point in time I think the markets for risk assets are too complacent given this cocktail of higher interest rates quantity of tightening and credit contraction certainly we should expect higher default rates in lower quality fixed income securities as we move into the end of this year and I'm strongly of the opinion that investors should be going up in quality in bond portfolios and we might finally crack down below a 337 on the tenure which has been this amazing barrier that we can't get through we try to get through it today we couldn't get through it if there's a recession we'll probably get through it and I was I'm toying with the idea that this might be the last flight to Quality rally that really creates profits for treasury bonds because I'm really worried about the deficit situation in the United States we we're not even in a recession yet although the economy is only growing at one point one in the first quarter but we have a seven percent deficit as a percentage of GDP and we're not even in a recession yet so we're going to have really big problems with debt was today a mistake should they have done nothing I think they should have done nothing today but I've heard a lot of commentators say these words that I agree with 25 basis points is going to make a huge difference you know it's certainly there's always the straw that breaks the camel's back but 475 or 500 basis points and of course a little over a year it's kind of the same thing so I I just hearken back to what we talked about when the FED started raising interest rates they started too slowly they should have raised interest rates a lot more in the middle of last year and they waited until really those multiple 75 basis points and that was because the bond market was throwing a fit and we probably would have had this Regional banking problem to this magnitude If the Fed had started raising rates more dramatically early on like I talked about a 200 basis point move should have been their first move you probably wouldn't have gotten the long bond to a 50 50 drawdown that hurt obviously svb and other Banks and certainly there's lots of underwater Securities that remain uh in in the banking portfolios so I think today was on the margin I guess I call it a mistake but it's I think the market was completely prepared for this exact press conference this exact statement from the FED it's extremely non-committal uh but I would bet pretty strongly that the fed's not going to raise interest rates again