Ark's Cathie Wood: Stablecoins could cut our bullish bitcoin forecast by $300K

요약 보기

캐시 우드는 스테이블코인이 신흥시장에서 비트코인의 역할 일부를 대체하며 예상보다 빠르게 확장 중이라고 주장한다. 이에 따라 2030년 강세 전망치 150만 달러에서 스테이블코인 효과만으로 약 30만 달러를 낮출 수 있다고 언급한다. 다만 금이 두 배 상승한 점을 고려해 금 대비 비교는 유지되며, 디지털 금 논리와 기관 채택은 여전히 유효하다고 본다. 비트코인이 최근 한 달 약 16% 하락한 상황에서도 장기 구조적 성장 견해를 유지한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Final question, Bitcoin down about 16% I think for the month now, past month. What what 102 now, 103, something like that? Where do you think it Where do you think we're going? I know you have you have big ambitions for Bitcoin. Yes, we do. I will tell say one thing that has shifted for us in the last few years.

02. Stablecoins are usurping part of the role that we thought Bitcoin would play. So, our bullish forecast out there is 1.5 million by 2030. Given what's happening to stablecoins, which are serving emerging markets in a way that we thought Bitcoin would. I think we could take maybe $300,000 off of that bullish case just just for stablecoins.

03. So, watch that space. Stablecoins are are scaling here I think much faster than anyone would have expected. Kathy, this this is news because this is a this is a different expectation. To the extent that stablecoins become an even larger part of the market, would you would you take that would you take the top top number down even further?

04. I mean, if if stablecoins do become this, you know, the sort of transaction currency of choice, if you will, how how does that change the dynamic of of Bitcoin being the sort of digital gold? So, I was holding all other things equal. Digital gold, if you look at what's happened to the gold market, you know, we were saying digital gold could usurp half of that market or at least become as big, you know, become additive in some way.

05. So, that's the other dynamic at work here. And the other thing is, institutions, this is a new asset class. Stablecoins are cash, they're dollars. Bitcoin is a global monetary system. It is the lead in a new asset class, and it's a technology all wrapped in one. So, while I say $300,000, that would be holding gold constant, let's say.

06. Gold has doubled here since we made that forecast. So, again, there are puts and takes. I just wanted to highlight stablecoins because they are they are happening faster, they're they're scaling faster. I think emerging markets are huge in this regard, and we're starting to see institutions in the United States focused on new payment rails with stablecoins at the core.

07. So, very interesting movement. I think the whole space gets bigger. This is, you know, a global monetary system really going digital without government oversight, very private. So, it's a very big idea. Yeah, that doesn't doesn't change your view of the of digital gold aspect of Bitcoin at all. And not even related to it.

08. So, maybe you had 1.2 million based on digital gold and 300 another 300 from the the transactional. So, I think I understand what you're saying. And institutions really have just dipped their toes into this space. We have just started. So, we we have a long way to go. know, you don't have to ensure, you know, there's a lot of things that are better than gold about Bitcoin.

09. And and most of the the most important things are the same. So, it's either better or the same. So, I could at least be half. It could at least be half of gold. Absolutely. Absolutely. Absolutely.