저자: TamandeepSingh · 외국인
요약 보기
PER만으로는 저평가·고평가를 판단할 수 없으므로 PEG(PER÷성장률)를 사용해야 한다. PEG가 1 근처면 적정, 1 미만이면 저평가 가능, 1.5 이상이면 고평가로 본다. 예시로 Newanics는 PER 63·성장률 18%로 PEG 3.5(고평가), India Glycol은 PER 26·성장률 31%로 PEG 0.83(저평가 가능), Infosys는 배당 3을 더해 PEG 약 1.4(고평가 쪽)로 계산했다. 결론은 PEG를 1차 스크리닝 도구로 쓰라는 것이다.
다듬은 글
You know that earnings drives the stock price. But how do you know if a fast grower is still cheap or a slow grower is overpriced. So hello everyone, I am Tamandeep and today we are going to study the golden rule. So Mr. Peter Lynch's golden rule help us to determine a potential bargain by comparing its PE ratio with its growth rate.
Right? So for a gentle reminder for our viewers, PE ratio is stock price over earnings per stock, right? So what does this tell us? So is a a PE ratio of 30 high? Sounds like high, right? And is a PE ratio of 10 low, but the reality is it's not that simple. PE ratio of 30 might be low for a fast grower and a PE ratio of 10 might be over price for a slow grower.
So this is where the PEG ratio comes in PEG ratio. So it's price earning growth. So what it tells us? So PEG ratio is PE ratio divided by earnings growth rate. Right? So what does this mean? See when we are buying a stock we are not just buying a company that's earning we are also investing in its potential earning right so what it might earn the next year or the year after or the year after if we see that the next year it might earn more then we are okay by paying a bit more price for the stock isn't that right so what does this PEG ratio tells us the golden rule says if peg ratio is nearly one then it's a fair price.
If it's less than one, then you might have find yourself a bargain, right? It might be a multi-bagger. And if it's greater than one, especially greater than 1.5, it's overpriced. Do not buy that, right? So let's calculate this for some real life examples. So let's say Newanics. You see that PE ratio is 63.
It sounds high but let's confirm before get saying our word it right it's revenue increase is 18% right increase in earnings is 18%. So our PE ratio is what 63 and revenue increase is 18. So what is its peg ratio? So 63 divid by 18 is what? Uh 3.5, right? Yeah, it's 3.5. So it's 3.5. It's really high.
This stock is overpriced. Keep that in mind. What was that? If it's greater than 1.52, it's overpriced, right? Let's take another example. So this is India Glycol Limited. So we see that the PE ratio is 26. It still sounds high, doesn't it? But let's write it down. So PE is 26. Okay. And what about its earning?
So its increase in earning is 31. 31. It sounds good, right? So increase in earnings is 31. So this is about what 0.83 right? So the peg is 0.83. So it's a bargain, right? It's a potential bargain, right? It's less than one. So, it's a potential bargain. It's good. It's really good. But is this all?
Is this the complete story? There is still something we need to consider. It's dividend. You see many slow growers give dividend. It's cash that you get every year for owning the stock. That has to play some role, right? So how does it play a role in the PG ratio? So what we do is we consider it as a part of growth.
We just uh divide the PE ratio by the summation of earning growth rate plus the dividend ratio. So that would give you a better estimate of the PEG ratio. Right? So let's see this with an example as well. Let's say Infosys. So the PE ratio is 23. Okay. So PE is 23. Okay. And the dividend is what? Let's say three, right?
Dividend is three. So dividend is three. And what is its growth? So in forces growth is about 13.2 let's say 13 right. So growth is 13. Growth is 13. So what is the peg ratio? So P EG is 23 divided by 13 + 3 16. So what is this 1.4 I believe right? It's yeah it's 1.4 nearly. So it's still overpriced but it's not as bad as but one might think if one is not considering the dividend.
Right? So keep dividend in mind. So what is the conclusion? The conclusion is that a great company is only a great stock if it's selling below its growth point. Right? So guys, use this PEG ratio as your initial screening method and once you find a company that whose PE ratio is less than its growth, that's when you start your detailed research about that company story. So that's it for today guys. See you later. Bye.
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