저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
관세 충격과 불확실성으로 시장이 추가 하락 위험에 있다고 진단. 관세 협상 태도(유연 여부)가 시장 반응을 좌우하며, 고율(15% 이상) 유지 시 추가 하락 우려. 주가는 이미 트럼프 효과 상승분을 대부분 반납했고, 2025년 두 자릿수 이익 성장은 어렵다고 봄. 2026년 EPS 280달러 전망에는 관세 등 불확실성이 큰 변수라고 지적.
다듬은 글
Let's now bring in Professor Jeremy Seagull of the Wharton School, also a senior economist at Wisdom Tree. It's great to have you on a day like this. Welcome back. Thank you, Scott. Happy to be here. Will this be the so-called clearing event that people want it to be? I think we all hope so, but um honestly, I think maybe a better outcome.
Uh first of all we have to find out the average level and and we we certainly know I you know when I remember when Goldman raised it from 10 which what they thought to 15 that really kind of shocked the market. Now we're talking about 20 or or maybe even 25. But I think the most important factor will be how he positions renegotiation.
In other words, a willingness I will enter a negotiation. And this is my starting point. If you lower on our exports, I will consider lowering on uh your exports. I I think that would be received very favorably. Now, of course, that that is a process. But I think if we can tell by his language or his body language or how the other officials are going to be talking about potential reductions in response to a mutual lowering of tariffs, I think it will be taken uh well by the market.
If he seems very rigid um and at levels over 15% uh I don't think it'll be taken well by the market. How much damage do you think's already been done from the uncertainty? There are some who think that, you know, you you can get past this. There are others like Tony Pascarella, Goldman Sachs who say the game's changed in the market and now it's all about the preservation of capital because of this uncertainty and what's going to happen even with more certainty of tariffs that are going to be punitive.
Yes. because even if you know we know for instance if there's 20% we really don't know what kind of a reduction in GDP that that will entail. Um I mean and the ramifications are are very strong. I mean we already see a big decline in in travel uh uh by foreigners into the United States. I mean that that hits the service sector.
There may be some boycotts of US goods. And of course the big wild card Scott as we all know is the potential retaliation. And um uh you know if if he sounds rigid and we hear tomorrow from the EU, Canada andor Mexico, okay, now this these are our tariffs. Um that that is definitely going to be a negative shock for the market.
So uh yeah, there is definitely potential downside flexibility negotiate. Listen, if we could all negotiate to a zero tariff level, uh, at one point I remember Trump saying, "Well, maybe if everyone had zero, I could take that." Um, you know, that that that would be ideal, but it seems to be far away at this point.
The other point to make, I think, is that stocks have already, as you know, priced in a lot, right? We're down substantially already. What doesn't the market know at this point? We are. We aren't. Scott, look at we had a 10%, you know, bump because of Trump and most of that's been eliminated. Uh now with a much tougher tariff stance than I think anyone certainly expected uh you know in November and and December.
Uh we're still, you know, I haven't settled on what this tax bill is going to be and how it's going to be passed. Um there's still a lot of negotiations there. So, you know, the other favorable part of the Trump agenda is yet to be passed. Uh, and now what we've basically done is wiped out the the Trump bump back to that pre level.
If he goes tough on tariffs and um on that, I I certainly see further downside. Wow. you know, on on the idea of what happens to earnings and what we should be willing to pay for the earnings we may get in the future. If you look ahead to 2026, for example, Goldman Sachs is around $280. 20 on that, a 20 multiple only 5600.
I don't think that's what people were were expecting. And that's even if you believe the 280, that is the biggest wild card in all of this. Yeah. I mean I mean I thought even before Trump was elected that the 2025 and 2026 were way too high just because we had you know 15 18% growth rates in 23 24 people started extrapolating long-term growth with no negative factors such as tariffs is 7 8 n uh so I I was saying you know how you know people were saying 2% 2 and a half% GDP g that's great how do you get a 15% earnings boost out of that and we all know right now the street is between zero and 1% for this first quarter which of course uh just ended a couple days ago.
So uh you know there's there's just no way I can see double digit earnings growth uh coming out this year. I mean next year obviously depends on you know how far it goes down this year. I would say that really no one no one can accurately predict
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