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If you invested $10,000 in Uber exactly 3 years ago, it would be worth over $30,000 today. That's more than a 300% return and nearly five times the S&P 500's performance over the same period. That makes Uber one of the best performing tech stocks over the past few years, outperforming Microsoft, Google, Apple, and Tesla by at least three times.
After a huge runup like that, most investors would think the easy money has been made. But one of the world's most famous investors, billionaire Bill Aman, believes the real rally is just getting started. In Q1 2025, he bought over 30 million shares of Uber, a massive $2.3 billion stake, making it his fund's single largest holding.
Aman believes the market is overlooking powerful catalysts that could potentially ignite Uber's next phase of growth over the coming years. We'll get into that in this video, but first, you have to understand Bill Aman. He's a high conviction, high-risisk investor. When he's right, the winds are legendary.
He invested in a bankrupt mall operator, General Growth Properties, and earned investors a 100 times their money. His move has been called a masterclass in bankruptcy investing. In 2012, he took control of the struggling Canadian Pacific Railway, installed a new CEO, and tripled the stock price in just a few years.
But when he's wrong, the losses are catastrophic. His trade on Valiant Pharmaceuticals in 2015 resulted in a $4 billion loss. That's not all. Aman's outspoken nature has led to drawn out quarrels as well. For example, he famously shorted Herbal Life for $1 billion, calling it a pyramid scheme. But after a 5-year battle, he exited the position at a major loss.
This history of epic wins and spectacular failures is what makes his Uber trade so compelling. So, which path will Uber follow? To find out, we need to look at the business itself. Under CEO Dar Kashra Shai, Uber has undergone a stunning financial turnaround. Once famous for burning billions, the company is now a cash generating machine.
Key metrics show a fundamental shift in the business. Free cash flow has shot up dramatically, turning from negative to positive in 2022. That's the cash a company has left over after covering all its expenses. So, this is a sign of health for the company. Net income also turned positive in 2023, proving the business can be profitable and reversing after a long period of spending more than they took in.
But the financial turnaround is only half the story. The overlooked catalyst that Aman is pinning his strategy on lies in three new high margin businesses most people don't associate with Uber. One is advertising. Uber is building a high margin advertising business directly on its ride sharing and eats platforms.
Launched in 2022, Uber ads has already grown to over $ 1.5 billion in annual revenue, a 60% year-on-year growth rate. The other growth catalyst is Uber Freight. Acman sees potential in this growing multi-billion dollar logistics arm of Uber, which operates as a brokerage for the shipping industry. Uber freight is using AI on its platform to provide trucking companies with more optimized routes.
A recent industry report estimated that at any given moment roughly 35% of all trucks on US freeways were empty of goods. Uber has set out to solve this problem and do it almost exclusively with AI. The third is self-driving. Uber has partnered with the leaders in the self-driving space like Whimo and Aurora to bring robo taxis onto its platform.
This partnership allows Uber to tap into what could be a multi-billion dollar market. Whimo's autonomous vehicles are already live on Uber's platform in select areas, and the company expects this coverage to expand throughout 2025 and beyond. This is the core of Aman's bullish thesis. He believes these new ventures, combined with the company's newfound financial discipline, could power the next wave of growth.
But is it enough to outweigh the risks? This trade faces two major threats that could easily turn it into a bust. The first threat, competition. Uber is in a constant and expensive fight for market share. It faces pressure from Lyft in the US in Bolt in Europe for ride sharing. In the US, Uber still dominates market share with 76% of monthly ride share sales compared to 24% for Lyft.
But these competitors mean Uber can't rest on its laurels. It must continue to compete on prices to maintain dominance. In the even more competitive food delivery space, Uber Eats is in a head-to-head battle with Door Dash. And this is a battle that Uber isn't winning. Door Dash enjoys major dominance in the space with nearly twothirds of monthly sales compared to less than a quarter for Uber Eats.
This presents a significant challenge for Uber since delivery accounts for 32% of Uber revenue. Rides still account for 56% and freight comes in at 11%. But the biggest threat to Uber as regulation, and the central issue here is worker classification. A ruling that forces Uber to classify its drivers as employees instead of independent contractors in the US could add more than $4 billion in annual costs.
Precedents have already been set like in the UK where Uber must now pay minimum wage and other benefits increasing its operational costs significantly. Ultimately, Bill Aman is counting on Uber's financial transformation and that its new high growth ventures will far outweigh the very real regulatory and competitive risks.
The success of this trade hinges on whether Uber can continue its impressive execution while navigating these external storms. It's a classic Bill Aman trade, bold, controversial, and with billions of dollars on the line. At capital.com, we'll continue to keep you updated on trades by influential investors like Bill Aman along with trending tech stocks like Uber. Hit like and subscribe to stay tuned. Thanks for watching.
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