🛑 Warren Buffett Predicts FED Stock Crash 🛑 Why Warren Buffett Has Not Bought Any Stocks

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버핏의 현금 보유와 연준 개입 논쟁을 다루며, 신용 사이클 관점에서 단기·장기 부채 사이클이 계속 반복될 것이므로 특정 시장 전망에 의존하지 말고 자신의 전략을 갖춰야 한다는 영상이다. 결론: 연준이 위기를 미뤄줄 수는 있어도 신용 기반 경제에서 부채 사이클과 폭락 위험은 사라지지 않는다. 버핏 관련: 버핏이 현금을 많이 보유하고 있고, 좋은 거래가 없다고 말하는 점이 언급된다. 이를 노년의 판단력 저하로 보는 시각은 잘못이라고 주장한다. 전문 투자자 관점: 많은 전문 자금운용자들이 시장 상승에도 공매도를 시도해 왔으나 번번이 손실을 봤다고 설명한다. 리테일 투자자: 로빈후드 등 소액 투자자들이 상승장에서 큰 수익을 냈다고 언급한다. 다만 시장이 영원히 폭락하지 않는다는 믿음은 잘못이라고 경고한다. 부채 사이클 논리: 경제는 생산성 성장(연 약 2%)을 기준선으로 신용 확대(레버리징)와 축소(디레버리징)를 반복하며, 단기 사이클은 5~7년, 장기 사이클은 25~50년 주기로 본다. 연준 역할: 금리 조정으로 단기 사이클에 영향을 주지만 힘에는 한계가 있으며, 금리가 제로 하한에 닿으면 장기 부채 사이클의 전환점에서 대공황형 위기 가능성이 커진다고 주장한다. 현재 대응: 연준의 대규모 부양책으로 위기를 일시적으로 늦췄을 뿐이며, 위기가 언제 올지는 예측이 어렵다는 입장이다. 출연자 전망: 영상 내에서 시장 방향에 대한 명시적 1~3개월 가격 예측은 없고, 장기적으로 부채 위기가 반복될 것이라는 견해만 제시된다. 영상은 무료 교육 상품 링크를 적극 홍보한다.

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01. grandpa Buffett old senile he has no idea what he's doing in the stock market anymore no that's not what I personally think but I've been seeing a lot of comments expressing that exact sentiment all over these videos that I've been doing it's funny because all of a sudden everybody no was better than Warren Buffett now Buffett is just some old dude going into cash and stuffing it all under his mattress just like you know old people do it's not like the market and economy are extremely uncertain and that cash is actual prudent position no no it's just because he's old as if he wasn't old back in 2008 when he made a killing as if all that knowledge he built up over his lifetime has just gone now and the best comments are the ones that say that Buffett is absolutely wrong because obviously the Fed would never let the market crash again we're in a forever bull market now sure that makes sense so in this video we're gonna talk about Buffett and whether the Fed will prove him wrong with all their money printing but at the end of the day regardless of what Buffett and the Fed are doing you're gonna need your own strategy and that's why we put together this free training to help you out with that there's a link in this video and down below in the description of comments you could go there take this training and you'll know exactly how I invest in the market you'll have my full strategy step-by-step as it says right here very useful to get this strategy in place so you know exactly when to buy and when to sell when to take profits when to cut losses all that good stuff that goes into a strategy and makes you successful in the stock market anyway check that training out it's free so as we know Buffett is in a lot of cash right now because he's not confident in this economy in stock market and when people ask him why he's not swooping in when all these companies dropped he's saying that he's not seeing any good deals and things aren't the same as what happened in the previous crisis a lot of professional money managers are thinking the same thing as we've been over in the last few videos they've been trying to short this market non-stop and they continuously get blown out because to them it doesn't make sense that the market continues to go up even as the economy is in such a bad place right now and then you have retail people on the other hand like the people using Robin Hood and smaller accounts they're just crushing this market they rode this whole wave up and have been making so much money so it's the whole retail versus pro who's correcting this so far it's been the retail crowd which is awesome to see but where retail gets it wrong is when you start saying that the market is never going to crash again because of the Reserve it's true that the Fed and Jerome Powell they've done a great job but for there to never be a crash again is that possible no that's a stretch because is there any market in history that didn't have ups and downs that didn't have crashes is there anything that just went straight up with no volatility no that's never gonna happen as long as we have something called credit I'm not just talking about credit cards I'm talking about loans and debt and all these things that you can do to borrow money and spend it and it's not just credit by itself it's credit mixed with people and no matter how much the Fed stimulates this market they can't control it the market only moves based off people themselves and that's why when they say the markets are all psychology that's true because markets are all people if you really want to understand how this works with credit and people then you got to understand short and long-term debt cycles so we're gonna go over that real quick with our research from Makarov and debt cycles are really the basis for all our macro research at macarons because credit is so important to an economy and it determines so many things and you might have heard of short and long-term debt cycles before because of Ray Dalio little commie Dalio the CCP's whipping boy is he a closet commie maybe either way though his research pretty solid if you take out all the China stuff and that's where we learned a lot about these debt cycles from Bridgewater's Research Ray Dalio and his team so the first thing that you gotta understand is that our economic machine like our global economy starts with money but money isn't just cash like cold hard cash in your wallet it's also credit and credit is actually the main part that you should focus on because in the u.s.

02. the supply of physical cash is roughly three trillion but credit is near sixty trillion so most of the buying that happens is through credit it's not through cash that's why it's so important so when you pay for something with cash you exchange cash for that service or good right and then the transaction is closed it's complete you don't got to deal with that person anymore but when you buy something with credit you're promising to pay for it in the future if you get that good or service right now that means the transaction is not complete until you know you pay that guy back so if we think about the difference between credit and cash credit could actually be created out of thin air you don't even need the central bank or the US Treasury all you need are two people saying okay yeah I'll give you this now if you pay me back later and there you go credit and money has just been created the lender now has an asset because you know he's owed money and the person who borrowed gave him that IOU has the liability now and that stays there until that transaction is closed with the debt being repaid so this ability to literally create money compounds over time and that's what causes cycles and these credit cycles are what drive the economy so there's really three forces working together here first you have long term productivity growth then you have the short-term debt cycle which is the business cycle and you have the long term debt cycle so we're gonna see how that all fits together so the first one is long term productivity growth with the line going straight up like this so over time the economy or the real GDP per capita averages 2 percent growth and that 2 percent basically comes from you know our new technology all the knowledge that we're creating as a group of people we become more productive over time because of that knowledge and I know it might not feel like it because everyone loves saying things we're way better back in the day but the truth is you know society is so much better than the generations before us every time you flush the toilet you just got to remember that people didn't even have running water back in the day Buffett talked about this too he said indeed most of today's children are doing well all families in my upper middle-class neighborhood regularly enjoy a living standard better than that achieved by john d rockefeller senior at the time of my birth his unparalleled fortune couldn't buy what we now take for granted whether the field is to name just a few transportation entertainment communication or medical services Rockefeller didn't have Netflix Rockefeller certainly had power and fame he could not however live as well as my neighbors do now so this 2% seems small and you might not notice it in your day-to-day life but if you're ever feeling bad about yourself one day just go back and think about how they had to live even the richest people back then when you didn't have the technology but as I say that you know to look back into the past to make yourself feel better about now no one doesn't because you're not trying to compare your life to people in the past you're trying to compare to the people around you right now and usually the people that are wealthier than you so of course none of us are going to be satisfied with the 2% average increase in our living standards instead we're gonna borrow money to make up for that gap this dude next door is not gonna be getting a new boat without us getting a new boat too but if you don't have the money what do you do you borrow it and this is a biological thing that we love to borrow and spend money Jason Zweig talked about in his book he said when people borrow and spend money it's really the reward centers of the brain that become activated when you borrow money you're not thinking about the long-term consequences but the short-term result you got more cash in your pocket and that feels good so this credit is creating money out of thin air of course it's like a drug and being able to borrowed eludes us into thinking that we can outpace this 2% increase in living standards per year cuz the truth is you can because in the long run you could only consume and spend money on as much as you can produce or earn you can keep borrowing and borrowing above your earnings but guess what you're gonna have to pay that back eventually right and when you spend more than you earn you create a bad debt and that debt will not be repaid so you can see where we're going with this right a bunch of people start borrowing then eventually oh they can't pay it back so you can see where we're going with it right with this picture right here a bunch of people start borrowing so that hey you're above that 2% but eventually it gets out of control no one can pay their debts back and you drop the low that 2% so instead of going on a nice steady line upward you know just based off your 2% productivity growth as a people everyone's trying to borrow to get above it and then they end up falling below and that's why you get those cycles those little waves all the way up this line that's why you get these little squigglies the short-term debt cycle it's the credit cycle it's the business cycle it's all one thing boom and bust it's because of credit see the cycles oscillate around that two percent productivity trend line those are the debt cycles they're comprised of leveraging z' and deleveraging z' of debt and credit so when you're borrowing all you're doing is pulling your future consumption forward while causing that temporary increase in productivity above that 2% average you're pulling your consumption forward because you know you're taking that money that you would have made later hopefully and spending it now and it's pull forward because in the future you have to pay back so during the leveraging period is when we go above that 2% line and then we go through a deleveraging period where we got to get rid of all that bad debt and that's when we fall below the 2% line when we're above 2% you know that's the bullish run that's when everything is great everyone's feeling good when we're below the 2% line and we're delivering you know that's the recession time so it's not all determined just by the Fed you know it's people it's what we're doing but if you get into the short-term debt cycles you will see the Fed does play a big part but their power is limited so the short-term debt cycle also known as the business cycle those oscillations we were just talking about they occur every five to seven years and they do result from the Federal Reserve like Jerome Powell easing and tightening money and they do that with their interest rate manipulation they get to determine the interest rates in the economy so if they lower interest rates what happens well credit becomes more attractive so people and businesses borrow more because it's cheaper right lower interest rates means you don't got to pay as much in interest when you borrow that money and then people's existing debt that they already borrowed before that becomes cheaper to service your payments go down again if your payments are down then maybe you could borrow even more and then there's a third more complicated effect where the discount rate which is the interest rate when that's lowered investors reevaluate their investments if you've heard of a discounted cash flow analysis it uses that interest rate to determine you know what's the present value of future cash flows of a company and lower interest rates affects that to the point where for their investors it looks like a better deal to buy more and financial spreads tighten during that period so anyway like I said if there's cheaper debt than you know people are gonna be influenced to buy more demand will increase because they could borrow and buy but that starts to inflate asset prices homes businesses stocks everything and as that happens people's net worth Rises because if the value of your house you know went up well you could remortgage get a second mortgage and make some more money on it throw it in the stock market and you get this crazy loop keep borrowing and things keep going up it all looks good it's a reflexive process George Soros style which we talked about in a previous video you're buying assets everyone's buying assets so that the assets you own they go up in price and all of a sudden you have a stronger credit profile so you could borrow even more positive feedback loop but eventually you bump up against the upper limit you bump up against the productive capacity which is the limit of what an economy can actually create but you could make credit way faster than what an economy can realistically support so what happens is that inflation takes hold this is called demand pull inflation so all of a sudden you got way too much money chasing after too few goods because the economy can't produce enough goods for all these people that are trying to buy it up and what happens you know when there's too few goods with too much money that drives prices up so you get your demand pull inflation but the Fed they're supposed to be there to regulate inflation right so when inflation starts going up that's when they raised interest rates and when they do that you know the whole feedback loop goes into reverse because all of a sudden the cost of debt increases you got to pay more to borrow money and the stuff you already borrowed your payments went up on that too so everything gets kicked into reverse where people stop borrowing they stop spending and you get a fallen demand which hurts asset prices they drop until you know you're below that 2% things are looking bad you're in recession and the Fed says oh we got to cut rates again to stimulate things so it's really a stupid game of increasing rates and then cutting them once again all of us oscillating like idiots around this 2% growth line of actual productivity but here's the thing when the Fed has to cut again to stimulate again well this time because debts are higher than they were before the Fed has to cut interest rates even lower than they were before so here's a good graph of how interest rates work so if you take it from the 80s interest rates continuously drop you see they have spikes right when the Fed raises but over time you got to keep going to a lower and lower low so then obviously the next question would be what happens when you get too low when you hit you know 2% or 0% what happens when the Fed can't lower rates anymore last time that happened you know we had a few wars around that time period we had a Great Depression where a lot of things were cleared out well when you reach that zero point or even negative this is where you pivot into the long-term debt cycle and that's this long wave right here and people don't really talk about the long-term debt cycle because it's on such a long time frame it only becomes noticeable at transition points which occur once every generation every 25 to 50 years and when you get to this point this is when the Fed really can't do anything more to stimulate the economy because you just can't accumulate debt forever that's not how it works eventually interest rates can't get lowered anymore to keep things going when they reach the zero bound there's no amount of credit easing that can induce people to borrow and spend more the accumulated debt levels become too high and the servicing cost too large the credit system becomes maxed out and that's when you get some serious issues with you know like a Great Depression style situation because all that credit and all that debt that's been accumulated over a generation even with all our business cycles are little booms and busts it turns into one big bust and that's where the Fed doesn't really have any power because the Fed isn't controlling the market can do a little bit in the short term but over the long term because our system is ran off of credit we're gonna face this situation so what happened just now with the Fed making this huge response because of this CCTV which is what I'm gonna call the coronavirus from now on well the Fed may have successfully stemmed off of crisis at least in the short term and this is where a lot of the professionals might be wrong because you could have looked at this and looked at how low our interest rates were already and thought okay the Fed is screwed here there's nothing that can save this not any amount of stimulus is gonna work where at the end of the long term debt cycle this is the time this is gonna be the huge crisis but no the Fed is creative they got quantitative easing and a bunch of other stuff they still have tools but even with all their new ways to stimulate the economy that doesn't mean that they fix things all it means is that they kick the can down the road which we still you know don't have confirmation of like this market might turn around again and we still might get that big crisis but if we don't that doesn't mean that it's never coming because it is still coming not just in the US but globally too these are cycles that have always played out forever as long as there has been a credit-based system and I'm not saying a credit-based system is bad per se you know just is what it is that's a whole different discussion and doesn't even matter because are we ever gonna get off this Credit System no probably not so you got to make sure that you're prepared instead of saying hey another crash is never coming and you also don't want to be like the professionals getting stuck on the idea that this has to be the crisis cuz it might not be it might be ten years from now who knows it's very difficult to time these things yeah we said this happens every fifty to seventy-five years but that's a loose estimate but honestly regardless of what the Fed does and what the economy and stock market does you should be okay as long as you have your strategy in place I know I say this all the time but it's true market going up market going down you could still make money as long as you're controlling your risk and again we talked about all of that in this free training there's a link in this video and down below in the description and comments so don't rely on the Fed to keep the market up forever just rely on yourself to have the right strategy to play it either way this training should help and if you like this video make sure you subscribe because we got more coming hit that subscribe button and I will see you in the next one stay foul out there bye