저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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시장이 매우 부진한 날, 크레이머는 투자자로서 장기 보유 원칙을 강조하며 현재 시장을 '끔찍하지만 극복 가능하다'고 봄. 하락 배경: 다우 약 237포인트 하락, 운송·통신·은행주 약세. 시스코 실적 쇼크와 상하이 봉쇄로 인한 부품 공급 차질 우려가 대표적 악재로 언급됨. 곰(약세) 논리 제시: 애플은 중국 봉쇄로 실적 타격 가능, 엔비디아는 게이밍 수요 둔화 우려, 코스트코는 월마트·타깃 부진 속 소매업 리스크, AMD는 시스코와 유사한 공급 문제 위험, 알파벳은 유럽 광고 둔화 가능성이 거론됨. 크레이머 반론: 이들 종목은 자신의 자선신탁(Charitable Trust)의 핵심 보유 종목으로 장기적으로 우량하다고 판단. 과거 2020년 6월 등 유사한 급락 때도 보유 유지가 유리했다고 주장. 다만 시장이 불안정해 일부 핵심 포지션은 최근 일부 축소했음을 밝힘. 시장 결론: 극단적 과매도 구간에서는 반등에 베팅할 만하다고 봄. '믿고 소유하라(believe and own)'가 장기 수익의 핵심이라는 메시지로 마무리. 콜러 질의응답: 켄트로 크로거(Kroger)는 연초 대비 상승한 방어주로 긍정 평가. 퀄컴(Qualcomm)은 약 11~13배 PER로 저평가, 자사주 매입 진행 중이나 중국 핸드셋 업체 부진으로 리스크 존재하며 '15% 하락 vs 50% 상승' 위험보상이 양호하다고 평가. 영상 말미 예고: 천연가스 가격 고점, 원전 에너지(Constellation Energy), 방산주, 팔로알토 네트웍스 실적 관련 후속 방송 예고.
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've been one of my friends teach but to entertain call me at 1-800-743 cbc it would be a jim cramer can't feel good about a market they can send down stocks of coca-cola or pepsico as easily it can crush apple or microsoft all right this thing is just plain off dow dropping another 237 points today s be falling point five eight percent now it's like declining just point two six percent but dragged down by the restless trashing of the transports the communications and of course the bank stocks so you know what i'll deviate a little here i'm going to tell you a story because it fits this moment perfectly so last night i got home a little bit before my wife poured myself a mezcal the way that my dad poured himself a wild turkey when he got home after a tough day of making no sales at his packaging business lisa going to get me some ground coffee super nice as always she could see i was down not even waiting for her to come home before a cocktail bad form what was wrong she's i told her cisco blew up and then i explained what that meant was blowing up and how much i wanted chuck rob and ceo cisco to have a good quarter she reminded me i always say that it's not about friends it's about money so maybe i should just accept the fact that we're going into recession stocks are horrible chuck can't do a darn thing about that so give up already just sell it to sell everything i told her that usually after big down days like yesterday tech rebounds so it's not a good idea it's true if you take the last time we were down like yesterday june 11 2020 when the s p 500 lost five point eight nine percent in the dallas six point nine percent if you bought tech then you did typically a week later microsoft was up four point eight percent amazon 4.5 percent apple and four percent try to be a fantastic time to buy i also took a bit of umbrage frankly that i was supposed to be tough on cisco's chuck robbins because he's tough enough for himself he took the hit on russia because of the war but he got hurt by the shutdown in shanghai the first key components so she said look jim you got two good you got two choices i could explain my cisco disappointed going over all the myriad issues that made robin's miss the quarter or i could just say it's not worth it it's time to sell it's electresly because she also heard the target was down used yesterday and a market that crushes both cisco and target as the market just ain't got anything going for it and then she said it she said it you're too bullish you're hopelessly optimistic and there it is that is the issue despite all that's going wrong all the usual suspects inflation ukraine trying to shut down higher gaston i can still see a way to make things work am i ready to throw in the tail don't get me wrong i can acknowledge everything that's going wrong i can see the bear thesis clears dead uh i got bear thesis for a bunch of stocks we own for the charitable trust you can follow along by joining the cmc investing club i'll even spell them out for you these are stocks that mike trust actually owns i want to give you the bear cases let's start with apple if you extrapolate cisco's month of april to apple then you're talking about a shortfall of greater magnitude than the eight billion dollars which they figured a much higher end uh price tag than what they're thinking about just based on real problems in china if shanghai is as shut down as chuck says then the 45 points that apple's lost since its high simply won't be enough to reflect the full horror of the situation it'd be easy to say sell apple here because if they came out tomorrow and said it's more than an 8 billion hit this stock's going to drop more than 20 points look at that their case against nvidia company makes the best graphics cards in the world absolutely you're using both gaming and data center but video games are also pandemic and all the covert winners being killed what's the point of owning nvidia when you know the stock point even get credit if the numbers are good anyway and if numbers are bad it's going to get cisco treatment down nearly 14 today except unlike cisco video's got no dividend protection it'd be easy to tell you to sell on video it'll almost have to be crazy not to sell it third bear case against costco me to tell me after walmart and target get crushed that costco somehow won't that are they immune just because they got some membership model the team at costco would have to be superhuman to navigate the situation isn't just another retailer at the end of the day we actually target walmart and then raw storage you have to close they says you got to stay away from that one toxic for amd all the bears have got it easy on this one do you really think that ceo lisa sue is so good that she can sidestep the same problems that drag down cisco can this semiconductor company focus on high performance computing gaming and pcs where the smarting of other businesses actually do the numbers last time they beat the numbers the stock went down anyway why even bother with amd why five the case against alphabet it didn't even do well last time is it time to just take your lumps and move on go home last time they got hurt by uh stolen youtube numbers in central europe uh next time when it be uh all of europe easy to say you should just get out while we're getting still relatively good if i had no hope those are the arguments i'd be making it's all five of these stocks they're all legit all rational there are two problems with what i just traced to one is these are all what i call core holdings for the chapel trust high quality companies that we have tremendous faith in despite any short-term concerns the trust has owned these names for a very long time and i don't think this challenging moment is that much more worse than other challenging moments that we have dealt with where we stuck with our favorites and it worked out just fine second as a concession to how miserable the market is one that can send down soft drinks and software at the same time i actually did trim every core position for the chapel trust not that long ago because i do truly dislike this market i do now i'd be the first to admit that i wish the trust owned less stock here i mean who doesn't but we still bought some yesterday and today because when this market gets this oversold i think the june of 2020 then it makes sense to bet on a bounce and then you can trim in the end as much as i can recite the negatives about these five stalks in my sleep i remain unshakable in my belief that after the smoke clears they will be higher not lower for example it's almost impossible for me to believe that apple isn't having a horrible quarter but to trust his own apple through a lot of bad quarters over the years it's been a fabulous winter i lived through the nvidia shortfall from the drop-off in bitcoin mining particularly ethereum the last time the crypto crashed i've like alpha business 88 dollars and it's disappointed me numerous times over the course of its long march of 2200 amd's been unbearable for huge swaths of points including the last 66 points damn oh and how about the 185 points that costco just lost what does it take to shake me out of that already the answer in each case my charitable trust is not renting these stocks it's owning pieces of these companies at times these companies will not do well but they're amazing businesses with amazing management i'll give them another chance to have amazing stocks too because historically that's been the right call yes this market is terrible it is awful on some days like yesterday i do want to go home pour myself a mess gal and close the door but that's not how you make money the bottom line over the long haul i think the best way to make money is by believing not disbelieving by owning not renting by taking the pain and engaging not slamming the door and hiding in the bedroom that's why i'm here every night rain or shine david alabama dave hey louie i jim from ghost stores alabama on the gulf of mexico oh i love it there i'm a i'm kind of a golden grade my 98 guy myself what's up hey kroger kroger i brought kroger i thought it was a nice fit with a agricultural wheat and corn egf that i had so i was gonna be a nice fit consumer uh you know a consumer staple getting killed it's a relative thing the stock is up six percent for the year and that's why people still uh there are people who are hiding in kroger's what is the way we call it i think kroger is doing a remarkable job i think rodney mcmullen is the remote i always would invite rodney to come on the show that's how well he's doing and i think that kroger is the stock you want to hang with not run from brian and marilyn brian hey jim how's it going not bad trying to stick with it how about you all right pretty good i'm a big fan of your uh show in the morning block and i appreciate all of your advice and thank you yeah it's great um so my question today is about qualcomm um i'm about 152 cost basis it's trading around 13 times which if the market's around 17 shooting for maybe 16.
it seems to be a little undervalued to me the buying back stock last four quarters see an inventory building on the balance sheet uh what are your thoughts you think that should i think chris no i think i want your whole christian is fantastic he's a ceo it's actually really about 11 times they are buying back a lot of stock they do have a lot of business in china and as we know from chuck robbins last night at cisco if you're in china it's possible that you've been shut down their handset makers in china are doing quite poorly but how about we just ride this one out qualcomm has i'd say 15 down and 50 up and that is a decent risk reward where i'm from this is a tough moment for the market an awful moment but remember over the long term i think the best way to make money is by believing not disbelieving and by owning not wrenching oh man money tonight with every day that natural gas prices spend at near their highest levels in over a decade the case for nuclear energy grows i'm sitting down with the ceo of constellation energy see if an investment is stuck and that's not could have your portfolio seeing stars then i'm taking a look at the defense sector and telling you if some names in the group could offer the right protection in an uncertain market and cybersecurity powerhouse palo alto networks report its quarterly results if they're closed i'm sitting down with the ceo fresh off the report he
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