Jeremy Grantham Says SUPER BUBBLE CRASH has begun + S&P is going to At Best $2,500 - GME AMC

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결론: 그랜섬은 S&P500이 '슈퍼 버블' 붕괴 국면에 진입했으며 추세선 수준인 약 2,500pt까지 하락할 수 있다고 전망한다. 핵심 주장: 그랜섬은 과거 일본 버블, 닷컴 버블, 미국 주택 버블을 맞춘 실적을 근거로 제시하며, 이번 버블을 20세기 미국의 4대 버블 중 하나로 본다. 다중 시그마 편차는 매우 드물게 발생하며 결과는 붕괴라고 주장한다. 근거 수치: S&P500은 작년 11월 고점 약 4,800pt에서 추세선 기준 약 2,500pt로 하락할 수 있으며, 이는 고점 대비 약 48% 하락이다. 그는 나스닥 82%, 아마존 92% 하락 사례를 언급했고, 2000년 이후 연준 개입으로 S&P 추세선 하락이 50%에서 멈췄다고 설명한다. 연준 평가: 그랜섬은 그린스펀부터 버냉키, 옐런, 파월까지 연준이 금리 인하와 유동성 공급으로 버블을 키웠고 '연준 풋' 기대를 형성했다고 비판한다. 현재는 인플레이션 환경이라 연준이 양적완화로 구제하기 어렵고, 추가 유동성은 인플레이션에 기름을 붓는 격이라고 본다. 반론: 그랜섬은 작년 S&P500이 약 27% 상승해 예측이 빗나갔다는 지적을 받았다. 다만 그는 지수 이면에서 하락이 진행 중이었고 11월 이후 매도 국면이라고 반박한다. 또한 가치투자 전략이 약 12년간 부진했다는 비판도 있다. 출연자 전망: 그랜섬은 이번 폭락이 끝난 뒤 가치주에 투자하면 투기꾼들보다 크게 앞설 것이라고 주장한다. 리스크/조건: 연준의 개입 여부, 인플레이션 환경, 추세선 이탈 여부가 핵심 변수다.

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01. famed investor jeremy grantham has a call that's drawing a lot of attention he's predicting a collapse in stocks and he says it's underway the fed won't be able to save us from this one in his opinion this is some pretty interesting stuff bloomberg news editor at large eric shaxter joins us now uh eric let's talk about uh first mr grantham's track record as a bubble caller well jeremy grantham has a pretty darn good track record as a bubble caller he is as you know a value investing legend he's been in the markets for 50 years and calling bubbles for almost as long he called the great japanese stock and real estate bubble back in the late 80s he called the tech bust in 1999 2000 and he was on to the housing bubble here in the united states before the financial crisis of 2008 so his track record is awfully good and he says this bubble what he describes as a super bubble is only one of four the united states has seen in the past century it is a multi-sigma deviation from trend that's a statistical term he says it comes around exceedingly rarely and when it does the patterns are unmistakable and the inevitable result is as you say a crash okay so that's some pretty pretty tough medicine to hear and the track record obviously is there let's talk about some of the scenarios that he's mapping out here well again i'm going to use some statistical terms but if you look if you look at a plot of the s p 500 over time and then do what's called a regression analysis you'll see that there's a trend line and the trend line comes in way below where we are right now even after the sell-off of the past few days and i think it's worth listening to jeremy grantham in his own words greg i think you have an excerpt of an interview i did with him queued up because if you think back to where the s p 500 was at its peak in november roughly 4800 points this is where he says it's going to go trendline being slightly generous is 2500 and most of the great bubbles the super bubbles go below trend and stay there for quite a while in the greenspan era that tendency stopped in 2000 yes the nasdaq came down 82 which was fairly brutal amazon came down 92 but the federal reserve raced to the rescue so loudly and strongly that they stopped the decline in the s p a trend line it only declined fifty percent fifty percent is a hell of a big decline but it was only enough to get it back then to trent this time trend is at most 2500 and i would expect even if the federal reserve tries to do the same it will be hard to prevent the market from declining to that level greg two things to add right there the first is that if the s p 500 actually drops to that 2500 trendline level it would be a peak to trough decline of 48 so roughly at that 50 percent marker that he was talking about but the second more important thing to talk about right now is what he had to say about the federal reserve he has been steadily critical of fed policy for many many years he says that going back to alan greenspan the fed is guilty of inflating these bubbles including the super bubble we're in right now but successively starting with greenspan cutting rates when the markets fell out of bed and and then subsequently bernanke yellen and powell there's been this implied put people could count on some kind of a fed rescue now that we live in inflationary times the fed's hands are cuffed by injecting more liquidity into the market with quantitative easing say it would just be pouring gasoline on the inflation fire and that as we both know is something that fed cannot do all right so it seems like everyone's in a very tight spot according to mr grantham's call there's always skeptics though eric i mean what's the skeptical view on his take well i'll give you two the first is he made the bubble call first a year ago and as everybody knows the s p 500 went up 27 last year almost 27 he says in fact what was going on underneath the surface validates his point and stocks have been selling off since november and so while it did take a few months for this to start to build he thinks we're firmly in sell-off territory already however there is another skeptical note to add which is that as a value investor a value investor as you know loves cheap stocks he has been stuck to a strategy that really hasn't worked for about 12 years and those who follow jeremy grantham's value investing advice since the financial crisis are way behind the rest of the market and so that invites some skepticism as well if jeremy grantham is such a sage how has he been wrong for all these years grantham would counter that yes value has been out of favor but if you listen to his advice after this crash is finished you'll end up well ahead of where the speculators are