저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 비트코인은 2017년 고점을 못 넘긴 약세 추세가 유지되며 단기 반등 시에도 저항을 넘지 못할 가능성이 크고, 테슬라는 픽업 발표 후 과매도 조정 뒤 반등을 기대할 수 있다는 입장이다. [비트코인 하락 요인] 중국 정부의 입장 변화(블록체인은 장려하되 암호화폐 발행·거래는 위험하다고 경고)가 가장 큰 원인으로 꼽혔다. 중국 경찰이 한국 거래소 비트(Beat Am) 사무실을 급습했다는 소문이 퍼졌으나 이후 부인되었다. 채굴장비 업체 캐널(Canaan)의 나스닥 상장 첫날 부진(주가 40% 이상 하락)이 채굴 관련 관심 저하로 번졌다고 설명했다. [약세 전망 근거] 트레이더 마크다운(Markdown)이 '비트코인은 죽고 있다'고 주장했으며, 작은 반등과 고점이 점점 낮아지는 하락 경로를 예상했다. 과거 강한 상승은 FOMO(놓치는 것에 대한 두려움)에 의존했으나 점점 더 강한 촉매가 필요해지고 투자자 피로가 누적된다고 분석했다. [기술적 분석 - 비트코인] 2017년 고점을 넘지 못했고 삼각형 패턴 하단에서 지지를 확인하는 중이라고 봤다. 주요 지지 구간은 약 3000과 6000 부근이며, 7500 지지 이탈이 진행 중이라고 언급했다. 100일 단순이동평균선 아래에서는 약세, 위에서는 단기 강세로 해석했고, 이 선이 저항으로 작용했다고 설명했다. 7500 이탈 시 다음 목표는 1700, 5700 부근이 핵심이며 이탈 시 2018~2019년 저점을 노릴 수 있다고 했다. 일목균형표상 가격이 구름대 안에 있어 방향성이 불분명하며 매매를 피하라고 조언했다. 반등 시 일목 구름대, 100일 이동평균선, 하락 추세선의 3개 저항을 확인해야 하며, 3100 이탈 시 2017년 수준까지 하락 가능성을 경고했다. [테슬라] 신형 픽업 트럭 발표 후 주가가 상승 흐름을 보였으나, 방탄 유리 파손 연출 논란이 있었다. 인스타그램 설문에서 60%가 마케팅 연출이라고 응답했다고 소개했다. 금요일 주가가 8% 이상 하락했으나 주말 사이 20만 대 이상 주문 소식이 전해져 이번 주 반등 가능성을 제시했다. 기술적으로 저항 360~370, 지지 310을 주시 레벨로 제시했다. [출연자 전망 요약] 비트코인은 단기 반등이 있더라도 장기적으로 약세, 테슬라는 단기 반등 기대.
다듬은 글
Greetings to the entire work- from-home community! Welcome to another video. This time, we're going to talk about Bitcoin and Tesla. Bitcoin continues to fall, and some experts are starting to raise concerns. Meanwhile, Tesla has presented a new vehicle, but it has n't quite convinced everyone. In fact, on Friday, Tesla shares fell by more than 8%.
All of these assets are at a critical juncture, and in the next few minutes, I'll give you the keys to investing. Before we begin, I just ask that you subscribe to the channel if you haven't already and share this video with a friend who's as eager to prosper as you are. Ready? Let's get started! If we want to understand why these Bitcoin drops have occurred, we must pay attention to four main factors.
The first factor comes from China. Recently, there was a misunderstanding or a change of heart on the part of China. The president of the Asian giant, Sino-Ping, openly stated that he wanted to promote blockchain technology, the technology behind Bitcoin. It's worth noting that at no point did he say he was going to promote The use of Bitcoin, or the market, took these words very well, and as we can see, Bitcoin had a spectacular rise of more than 40%.
Well, right now China has completely changed tack and become aggressive against Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, warning that the issuance of cryptocurrencies and specifically trading them is potentially dangerous. Evidently, this new stance has caused panic in the crypto market and has led to that brutal drop.
The next factor is a rumor that has done considerable damage to Bitcoin due to China's statements and this strong persecution of cryptocurrencies. Rumors arose on social media saying that the Chinese police had raided the offices of Beat Am, a cryptocurrency exchange based in South Korea. This rumor contributed to the fall of Bitcoin, causing a lot of fear and panic, making people believe that the persecution was very aggressive.
Fortunately, that rumor has been completely denied. The next very important point has to do with a rather bad stock market debut. It is the company Canan, which debuted on the Nasdaq, and as you can see on the screen, it is a company that sells mining hardware. Well, Bitcoin, and generally described in terms of starting out and already assembled equipment, as you can see in the chart, the launch hasn't been as expected.
In fact, the company's stock price has fallen by more than 40 percent, and this pessimism has spread to Bitcoin. If there's no interest in a company that promotes crypto mining, Bitcoin may no longer be as attractive as before. I'm not saying this myself; we could say it's the reasoning the market has followed.
Therefore, this IPO has contributed to Bitcoin's decline. Now, the next very important point is the opinion of a trader who made a lot of money shorting Bitcoin. This is Markdown, who posted these words on his Twitter: "Bitcoin is dying." We're talking about a trader who saw the 2017 bubble coming from afar and made a lot of money from the crashes of this cryptocurrency.
Markdown claims that Bitcoin is dying and that in this death, on this path to its demise, we'll see small rises, small peaks, and the result of euphoria and good news. As time passes, these peaks will become smaller and smaller. Until finally, Bitcoin reaches a point where the public isn't as interested in this crypto, so to speak.
These are brand words, or it's worth noting that Bitcoin has always had very strong rises driven by the fear of missing out, that is, the fear of missing out, the fear of losing that rise, the buying that ends. And it's worth noting that the catalysts have to be increasingly stronger in the case of Bitcoin to cause increasingly weaker rises and possibly a markdown due to investor fatigue, that definitive news that never comes, and in the end, the Bitcoin has always been in a downward spiral since 2017.
Well, these opinions also influence the fall of Bitcoin. These strong tweets... well, these are the four main reasons for the falls of Bitcoin. There are more, but these are the main ones. I'll leave them on screen for a minute so you can take a look. And it's worth noting that if you want to see how Bitcoin behaves with free real-time charts with a demo account at Activo Financiero.com, online broker bar, you have a selection of brokers.
The link is in the video description. Now we move on to the technical part. It's very quick and easy to understand, even if you have no experience with charts. Before we begin, let me tell you that we're celebrating an anniversary, as it will soon be two years since that crash, that bursting of the Bitcoin bubble, which occurred on December 17, 2010.
And if there's one thing we warned about plenty of times here at Working from Home and there, as you can see, two years later the trend is still bearish. Well, they haven't managed to surpass that 2017 high. You can see there's a very clear triangle with a base in this area, more or less. There are different support zones at 3000 and 6000, more or less, as you're seeing on the screen.
I want to highlight that there's an indicator I love that you can try on demo accounts, and that's the 100-session simple moving average. I love it. As you can see, when Bitcoin hit this last rise as a result of the statements by the President of China, Bitcoin couldn't break above the 100-session moving average.
Therefore, the 100-session moving average is... Pure gold with Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is below the 100-period moving average, it's bearish. If it's above the 100-period moving average, Beat Coin can be considered bullish in the short term. As you can see, the 100-period moving average in the book reached the 100-period moving average, forming a double top, and then fell back to the 100-period moving average.
The 100-period moving average acts as both support and resistance, and as an indicator of trend strength. On the other hand, we have very clear support at the 7500 level, which Bitcoin is breaking through very strongly. It can't find its footing. If it breaks through strongly, the next stop is 1700.
When the Beat Coin price is around 5700, pay close attention; it's a key moment, and if it breaks through, we would go to the lows of 2018 and 2019. On the other hand, Ichimoku has worked brilliantly with Bitcoin; you'll see it right away. In the last rise, the catalyst was that news from China, as you can see from the price.
It got stuck in the cloud. When the price is inside the cloud, it's indecisive; it's best not to trade. Therefore, Ichimoku, which was warning you, was saying, "Hey, it's not a trend reversal, the price doesn't have enough strength, be very careful." So, what's the plan? How to see the strength of Bitcoin in the coming weeks?
Importantly, the first thing is to establish a floor to stop the falls and then see how far the rebound goes. Therefore, in that rebound, we're going to encounter three obstacles: the Ichimoku cloud. If it manages to break through it, a good sign. The 100-period moving average. If the price manages to break through the 100-period moving average, it's very positive.
The next obstacle to overcome is the descending trendline. If it breaks through these three levels, Bitcoin would have a lot of strength in that rebound. We would have to study the catalyst, the reason why, but these are already three very good technical indicators. On the other hand, if it breaks through the 3100 level, worrying, a lot of weakness in the price, and we would go to 2017 levels.
Be very careful. Well, these are some technical indicators of Bitcoin so that you can apply them to your trading. Okay, now we continue. Tesla presents a new vehicle: a pickup truck. As you can see, its design is unlike any vehicle we've seen in the last 20 or 30 years. You may like the design or not, but one thing is for sure: it won't leave you indifferent.
On the other hand, Tesla's stock is very bullish; it hasn't stopped rising since the earnings presentation. Furthermore, it's rising strongly and with a lot of room to grow. Before the presentation, the price was in a resistance zone, and right at the presentation, something happens. Supposedly, the windows are bulletproof, and a failure occurs.
The most common explanation is that the windows were hit with a metal ball. Apparently, the impact affects the glass. This shouldn't happen. Personally, I found it rather strange, to say the least, and I launched a poll on Instagram to find out your opinion. The two options were: was it a technical failure, or was this actually staged and a marketing ploy by Tesla?
The result is clear on the screen: more than half of you told me it was staged—specifically, 60 percent. I'd like to take this opportunity to suggest that you follow me on... Instagram, working from home, in the end, these things make you think that it's skyrocketing in a very strong upward trend, it's right at resistance, and it launches a disruptive vehicle.
If we're going to imagine, well, something had to go wrong because otherwise the share price would have skyrocketed, and if we wanted to buy back our own shares, the price would be too expensive, right? And that's exactly what happened. The day after, Tesla shares fell, they even dropped more than 8 percent.
We could say it was a big drop, and it was a combination of everything: a new product on the market, a very daring and unexpected design, and of course, the " bulletproof" window incident (in quotes). This happened on Friday, and then just this weekend, with the market closed, it was revealed that it already has more than 200,000 orders for its new Pica, a very positive piece of data.
Therefore, this week, taking advantage of this correction from Friday, a result of this very positive data, and the fact that Tesla is currently very fashionable, it's possible that we'll see Tesla rise again. Obviously, nobody has a crystal ball, but everything points to it. Anyway, on the upside, we have a Resistance between 60 and 370 under a support of 310.
Okay, let's keep an eye on these levels. This week is definitely going to be a very interesting week for Tesla, a great week to practice. You know, visit activofinanciera.com/bar/online broker. You have the link in the video description. Now it's your turn. What do you think about the incident at the Tesla presentation?
Was it a technical glitch or was it all planned? Leave your opinion in the comments. You know I always read all your posts. I want you to know that I loved making this video. If you're not yet subscribed to the channel, now is the best day to start. Remember to activate notifications, the bell icon, so you'll be the first to know when I upload a new video.
We can stay in touch on YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. Okay, work from home, and most importantly, remember: don't look for a job, create one.
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