We haven't hit bottom yet: Legendary investor Mark Mobius

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결론: 저유가는 일시적이며 신흥국 주식, 특히 소비 관련 온라인·플랫폼 기업에 기회가 있다는 낙관적 시각. 유가 전망: 현재 저유가가 오래 지속되지 않을 것으로 보고, 올해 중반에서 후반 사이 유가가 회복될 것이라는 베팅을 하고 있다고 밝힘. 신흥국 수혜: 원유를 수입하는 중국·인도·터키 등 신흥국에는 저유가가 매우 좋은 뉴스이며, 중국은 원유 비축을 늘려 저장 용량의 약 70%를 채운 것으로 언급. 시장 비교: 고점 대비 저점까지 S&P 500은 약 28%, MSCI 신흥국지수는 약 29% 하락해 차이가 크지 않음. 반등 후 S&P 500 약 20%, 신흥국 약 23% 하락 수준으로 제시. 저평가 기회: 일부 신흥국 기업은 고점 대비 60~80% 하락해 매력적인 가격대가 많다고 봄. 종목/포트폴리오: 특정 종목 추천이 아니라고 선을 그었으나, 중국 상장 얌차이나(KFC 운영)를 포트폴리오에 보유 중이라고 언급. 인터넷을 활용한 신흥국 소매·배달 기업에 관심. 진행자 코멘트: 알리바바는 위기 중 방어적이었고 클라우드 투자와 PEG 비율이 강하다고 평가. 메르카도리브레(라틴아메리카), 얀덱스(러시아) 등 온라인·이커머스·클라우드·미디어 관련 기업으로 소비자 노출을 얻는 방식 제시. 진행자 일본 관련: 원유 수입국인 일본에는 저유가가 호재지만, 신흥국은 국가별로 옥석을 가려야 하며 원자재 수출국은 피해를 볼 수 있다고 봄. 리스크: 신흥국은 국가별 차별화가 필요하며, 원자재 수출 의존 국가는 손실 가능성.

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01. let's bring in now a legendary investor mark Mobius founding partner of Mobius Capital Partners mark you're joining us in the midst of a conversation about crude oil and I'm wondering where you stand on this commodity and whether or not we've seen some sort of a floor and if equities will seemingly continue to take their cues at least in the short term from crude well I personally have made a bet that this low price will not last I mean as soon as this say the middle of this year later this year I think the oil prices will recover so I've actually made a bet on that but emerging markets is wonderful the fact that you have these low oil prices is very good for these countries that are importing or like China India Turkey you go go down list it's very very good news and you notice that China is talking up they're filling up I think their reserves are now fill up 70% of their storage capacity I think they'll fill that up Lord so it's good news generally is that enough of a reason to be interested in emerging market equities oh that's one reason but the other interesting thing it's amazing I've been doing some numbers and from the peak to the lowest point on this bear market S&P 500 was down about 28% MSCI Emerging Markets Index about 29% so the difference was amazing to me because I figure that emerging markets would be hit more you know now there's been a recovery from the low as you've seen 15 percent roughly forces could be 10% for MSCI Emerging Markets but generally speaking the declines for SMP have been about 20% where we are now and about 23% for emerging markets so the difference is not significant but that the big difference of course is that there are many more bargains in emerging markets now because some of the companies of course have gone down by 60 70 80 percent from their peaks so there's great opportunity is there one name in particular that is catching your eye I wish we can be watching though that people at home could be trading well I think because these emerging markets stocks are not traded in the u.s.

02. so it brings it to go together but if you look at our portfolio again this is not a recommendation I mean I don't know whether we'll be selling I was buying but YUM for example is listed in China as a Chinese branch you know Kentucky Fried Chicken that's one name we have in the portfolio but generally speaking we're looking at these emerging market retail companies that are taking advantage of the internet and trying new things in terms of delivery and so forth that's really where the story is now mark great to speak with you thank you so much for your time thank you mark möbius möbius Capital Tim see where I go to you yum see you know Alibaba those are the types of names that it sounds like Mark is talking about well mark is talking about the consumption demographic dynamic in emerging markets that also has an en veteran we've been investing in for a long time and and so yes look Alibaba has been very defensive throughout a lot of this crisis and I think it will continue to be we talked about their investment in cloud we talked about the the earnings - you know - the growth ratio the PEG ratio is very strong about a MercadoLibre in Latin America how about a Yandex in Russia how about different ways in which the consumer is either playing some type of online or e-commerce or cloud or you know essentially on media these are ways to get exposure to the e/m consumer that's how you're going to outperform in emerging markets cuz if you're following the index it's making ten-year lows and has you know and probably will continue to market mentioned the tailwind that some economies could get from this lower crude price BK know you're worried about Japan this theoretically should be great for Japan which imports all of its energy right but not nice yeah so that that's a tenth win for Japan it's a tailwind for China and I think that's the really important thing that Mark pointed out is that you have to in this environment really know your emerging markets you can't just blanket go say hey I'm gonna buy emerging markets because some of these countries are going to be losers some of these countries need revenue from commodities which have crater so you know I think it's helpful to Japan but just like when the oil price fell here in the US that's great gas prices are low but if you're not driving anywhere who cares you