저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 2기는 역대 가장 친주식 성향 대통령이라 시장 반응을 의식해 정책을 조절할 것으로 보임. 감세 연장은 유력하나 추가 감세는 적자 확대로 채권시장 부담. 장기금리는 Fed 기준금리보다 100~150bp 높은 정상 스프레드로 복귀해 10년물 약 5% 가능, 금리 상승 추세 지속 전망. Fed 독립성 훼손은 채권·주식 모두에 악재. 시장은 이미 연내 금리 인하 100bp를 반영.
다듬은 글
Join us now Jeremy Siegel, nd Chief Economist at WisdomTree. Jeremy, it's it's good to see you. I think we spoke to you recently. I reading some of your notes this morning I I think what I drew from this is that that the markets are so important to Trump that the that the markets could preclude him from from doing some of the more draconian things that he's talked about versus him doing the things first and then seeing what the how the markets react.
So you think that the markets could actually dictate Trump's policies? Yeah, absolutely Joe. I mean President Trump is the most pro-stock market president we have had in our history. He He measured his success in his first term by how well the stock market did. So you know, it it seems to me very unlikely that he's going to implement policies that are going to be bad for the stock market and in addition the bond market, you know, we we we're beginning to talk about the bond vigilantes again.
I thought what happened on Wednesday after he won when those yields went up was a was a shot across the bow saying hey, you know, just watch out what you do. We're there and all the tax cuts you promised we're very skeptical unless there's other structural changes that are going to happen. So both the bond market and the stock market are going to be really big constraints on you know, many of Trump's programs.
That said, I mean, you know, you know, because he's taken the House Senate and presidency, I think an extension of his 2017 tax cuts looks pretty much like a slam dunk, but the expansion do all his other tax cuts is certainly going to be much more difficult. Some of the things that you described and just knowing what some of his proposals are I don't see how you can get a bond market and a stock market or why you'd expect coincident rallies in both.
Some of the things that would help the stock market would kill the bond market and maybe even vice any vice versa. So how how do you how does he going to walk that line or what which policies do you think end up taking precedence? Well, I think that what the stock market is certainly like is less regulation, a more pro-merger stance.
I mean, that's that's positive. Right. And and certainly it does not add to our our government debt. So I think that that that's a positive can do both, but but all the tax cuts and all the if there's a you know, if the deficit widens even from where it is now, which is just it is a terrible year for the deficit, obviously.
It widens from there with a lot of the giveaways and a lot of the the tax cuts, that'd be bad for the bond market, obviously. A lot of the Biden administration spending can be good in a Keynesian way for you know, the gains are kind of eaten up by inflation but it's been good for the stock market. Yeah, but you know, certainly that, but you're absolutely right.
I mean, you know, if if the bond the bond market if if yields go up dramatically and I still think yields are are are going to go up. You know, the normal situation Joe is that the the 10-year is between 100 and 150 basis points above the Fed funds rate. Not don't forget we've been in this strange inversion category that is very atypical of history for you know, two and a half three years.
Normally we do get that bond rate above. That's a normal interest rate. So you know, I I don't think the Fed is lowering to 2.9. I mean, that was their long-term. I really think it's probably going to settle Fed funds somewhere between three and a half and four, but that really means a 5% or so 10-year and if Trump goes all in on on all his tax promises, I would say that that would that would be higher.
So I think the trend of higher long-term rates is is is going to be with us. By the way, I I I listened to your discussion about independence of the Fed. I don't think there's any appetite in Congress to repeal the Federal Reserve Act. In fact, instead of criticizing J Powell, I think Trump should thank J Powell because his overly easy policy during the Biden administration causing all that inflation was certainly one of the reasons why Trump won the election.
And Trump his himself has said, "Listen, I'm I'm going to keep Powell on to the end of his term in the middle of 2026." So I I really don't you know, I mean, he he might want a little bit more consultation, but the market likes the independence of the Fed. If he messes any substantial way with the independence of Fed, that is not going to be good for the bond market or the the stock market.
It just seems like it's going to be much harder to raise rates ever if if necessary. And and like Trump with the 50 basis point cut, it's like hey, this is awfully political here before an election and then the one we just had the 25, it's like yeah, yeah, that's I like it. That's I like that cut. So and they love lower rate, but how is and J Powell some people said it was a nod.
You know, we were going to cut 25 all along, but it certainly would endear him to Trump at this point to keep it make him smart politician. And again, exactly to keep lower rate, but how do we ever do what's necessary? We'll be stuck at zero again. The same thing that they did last time, we'll have a hard time raising rates again it cuz it'll be No, I don't I don't think we're going down that road.
I mean, take a look. I mean, the the the the futures market itself has taken out 100 basis points of cuts from that September meeting already and looking at the strength of the economy. And you know, Becky was certainly right. Politicians have always wanted lower rates. Remember Wright Patman during the 1960s and 70s used to rail against the Fed and the raising of the interest rates, the populist from Texas and all that.
This goes back to Jefferson and Hamilton. You don't want Congress running your monetary George Hamilton. policy. Even though the the Constitution actually gives the power to regulate money to the House of Representatives, Congress in its wisdom says we have to create an independent central bank.
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