저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프의 이란 협상 낙관 발언과 이란-이스라엘·레바논 휴전 확대 가능성을 소개. 유럽 항공유 부족 우려와 휴전 종료(20일) 전 긍정적 소식 필요성 언급. 나스닥100은 과매수 상태라 일부 수익 실현 및 옵션 만기 연장(롤) 권고. 마이클 배리의 소프트웨어 종목(PayPal, Salesforce, Adobe 등) 매수 소식과 Adobe·Salesforce의 낮은 PEG·시총/FCF 배수를 근거로 소프트웨어 바닥 가능성 제시. 자체 구독 서비스 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Donald Trump just gave us an update on Iran seconds ago. I wanted to get you this news right away. We're going to cover what Trump just said about Iran. We'll talk a little bit about Israel, Lebanon, jet fuel. We'll also talk about what Michael Burry just started buying and how that potentially differs or doesn't from what I've been talking about this last week.
Yesterday, obviously, we had a great call on Microsoft, some other fantastic calls. Microsoft up yet again today, almost at my 420 crossing line where 419. Insane rally on Microsoft. Really good. So, congrats to all course members and everybody who's been part of that. Uh but for now, let's get to focusing because today the market is a little bit calmer.
That might be because we literally just hit overbought. That's also something we talked about in the course member live streams this morning. I'm just telling you for free. As soon as we hit overbought on the day chart, and we've obviously already crossed the 200 100-day moving averages, things can often slow down.
You get a little bit more volatility. You don't get as rapid of an up on the Qs. Doesn't mean things are bearish. It just means if you've got some good profits on some options, it might make sense to take some profits, maybe roll those options over to some longer dates out. Just something to keep in mind once you hit overbought on the Nasdaq 100.
But for now, let's talk about what Donald Trump is talking about. And of course, if you want those sort of detailed suggestions before the market opens up, just join over at meetkevin.com. Thanks to the many of you who just joined over the last 24 hours. It's a privilege to have you over at meetkevin.com before that coupon expires.
Now, Donald Trump just said that he sees an agreement happening with Iran potentially as soon as this weekend. That we are making a lot of progress with Iran and that the Israeli and Lebanese deal or the ceasefire that was just announced will also include Lebanon, which is the first thing that I thought when I saw Israel and Lebanon are talking about a ceasefire.
I'm like, "They're not fighting. Israel is attacking Hezbollah." So, you know, Trump is trying to loop in some optimism here suggesting that Hezbollah is included in this. Haven't seen commentary from Hezbollah yet, but we'll we'll see. Donald Trump says, "Our blockade is holding up a very well, and so far in talks, Iran has agreed, and this is per Donald Trump, that we're going to have some kind of agreement that Iran will not have nuclear weapons, and that agreement will last for a time frame, not forever, but a time frame that will be greater than 20 years." This is because when 20 years was first floated, Donald Trump was a little bit negative on that idea, and one of the reasons he was probably a little bit negative on the idea is because remember the JCPOA would have restricted Iran from having nuclear weapons for 10 to 15 years.
That's the deal that Donald Trump tore up saying it was the worst deal ever. So, you know, and then it's starting to kind of rhyme, right? So, anyway, Donald Trump is really trying to separate himself from that. And and this is, you know, none of this is political, it's just to say like he doesn't want to be associated with that, right?
expectation is he's going to probably go for something like, you know, 22 or 25 years just to really separate like, "Oh, I got so much more, right?" Uh now, also, uh Donald Trump says that Iran has agreed that they will not have nuclear weapons, and Iran has agreed to give back the nuclear dust. Uh now, we we know that this nuclear dust is actually a set of barrels of highly enriched uranium, enriched to about 60%.
Uh weapons grade is going to have to like get further enriched, uh you know, to an excess of 90%, which could be done in a matter of weeks and give Iran somewhere to the tune of uh the uranium that they need for somewhere between 10 to 11 nuclear weapons and bombs. J.D. Vance has of course suggested the potential for you uh using these as sort of more suitcase-style nukes or or, you know, backpack-style nukes where somebody walks into a grocery store and and detonate some kind of dirty bomb inside of a city, right?
Donald Trump's commentary here, obviously Donald Trump tends to lean optimistic. Actually, I'm still getting convers- notes here. The Lebanese government will be working with Hezbollah at the right time. I would visit Lebanon, Donald Trump says. And uh Bibi says President Trump told me he is determined to continue the blockade of Hormuz and dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities.
All right. Now, that's fantastic. Not necessarily for Europe because this morning the International Energy Administration warned that Europe is likely going to run out of jet fuel in as little as 6 weeks, which is right when peak travel season starts, right? 6 weeks puts us at June already, which is like midpoint for 2026, which is absolutely crazy that we're already that far into 2026.
Uh but uh Europe gets 75% of their net energy imports from the Middle East. So, you know, whether it's LNG or it's oil, it's somewhat problematic. Now, maybe this is what happens when you you know, kind of start relying too much on on other foreign nations. Uh this is why a lot of people in America cheer drill, baby, drill in America, that we should be energy independent, which we are with oil, uh and we should frack and drill ourselves.
That we shouldn't have killed the Keystone pipeline from uh that northern region uh you know, through through and above um the northern borders of the United States into Canada, but you know, obviously a lot of this gets quite political. So, all that aside, you know, Europe is pretty reliant here, and so it's this is going to cause some problems even this this sort of sort of how would you how should you put it?
Semi-permeable blockade that's going on. Uh and at the same time, we're also getting warnings from Hexath and Donald Trump that hey, if we don't end up getting a deal this weekend, fighting could resume. Now, the reason he's saying fighting could resume is because technically the 2-week ceasefire ends.
I have it on my calendar on the 21st. So, this weekend, you know, Sunday is the 19th, which means Monday is the 20th. Monday is the eve of the end of the ceasefire. So, we really need good news tomorrow and over the weekend to or in order to kind of sustain the green market momentum. Uh this is why, you know, this morning in our Alpha report and we're going to talk Michael Burry in just a moment, we were saying, "Hey, like just be careful.
We go into the weekend, we get this ramp up of talk from Hegseth, we're over bought on the indices. It's a good time to ring the bell, take some profits. There's nothing wrong with that. You could always roll your call options to more time. But remember last week I pitched uh call options on the Nasdaq 100.
And I pitched 2-week to 45-day options. If you bought 2-week options, those expire next week. You want to roll those puppies, okay? Like free suggestion here, roll those puppies, okay? Not personalized advice, just sort of, you know, broad advice for those of you watching the channel now. Michael Burry, this is very interesting.
Michael Burry this morning bought PayPal. Well, when I say this morning, I should say they posted about it this morning, but he bought multiple different software stocks within the last apparently day or few days or whatever, but he just posted about it now. He bought PayPal, Salesforce, Fiserv, payment processor, more of a legacy payment processor processor, Adobe, Autodesk, this is like for your architects AutoCAD, and VEEV.
That's Veev. In other words, uh Michael Burry is somewhat aligning with this software call that we've been making. Now, I'm not saying that software is with certainty at a bottom. But I think there are a lot of opportunities in software. And so while none of these names resonate with what I'm picking, you know, the the 12 stocks that we talk about uh as my favorite for the next 10 years, which you get in the Meet Kevin membership as well.
You . So, as that changes or evolves, you have access to it. But uh none of those are on my list. But mostly [clears throat] because I I do question like for example, Adobe, I quite like their valuation. I'll I'll show you. I'll just I'll just give this this away for you. Adobe's got a fan-freaking-tastic valuation right now.
But, I'm worried that one of the ways that they're sort of sticking around with revenue growth is that they're only raising prices on their existing customers and that they're actually having a harder time monetizing new customers. But, their valuation right now sits at a point 97 peg, so under a one peg.
And their revenue growth has actually accelerated to 13% percent growth ending February 27th. Now, we did our last analysis here on March 16th on it. And so, we did a little bit of a market cap to free cash flow analysis as well. This is actually a very interesting because if you look at First of all, their balance sheet is fantastic.
Their momentum is trash, which is great. Their valuation is very low. Like, all of those are green flags. And their pricing power looks like it's growing, but there's a little bit of an ass risk. But, anyway, yeah, okay, Donald Trump just now saying Iran has agreed to almost everything. Sorry, like I'm literally making this as Donald Trump is releasing these updates, so you're getting them like this I'm we're literally recording them the second they're coming out across the wire services here.
But, and I'm working on something to give you all as subscribers access to this wire service maybe through the Meet Kevin app at some point in the future. You know, we'll we'll figure it out. I don't know exactly what the pricing of all that's going to be yet because, you know, it's going to cost us a lot of money, but maybe we'll do something free for a while.
But, anyway, this I think is a very interesting metric that not a lot of people use. And what I do is I just divide the market cap of a company by how much free cash flow the company generates. And I sometimes I wonder if Michael Burry is watching our analysis because, honestly, Adobe is one of the cheapest on a market cap divided by free cash flow level.
Market cap of about 100 bill divided by free cash flow in a year of about 11.6 puts them at an 8.6 multiple. Just for comparison, Nvidia is at about 46, Tesla's at about 150. Wow. Donald Trump also just said if Iran deal is signed in Islamabad, I might go. Wow, Trump going to Pakistan, that would be huge.
I don't think we've had an actual president go to Pakistan since George W. Bush in 2006. So that'd be quite a moment there. But but yeah, I mean this is this is actually not like a horrible call to to look for a bottom in Adobe. I personally use Adobe a lot less than I ever have before. But you know, what you really want to see is how their enterprise user growth continues to grow.
And so far what they're saying on the earnings call is that enterprise total customers with ARR over $10 million grew greater than 20% year-over-year. Just so you know, like this is available to course members and all I did was go up here and put in Adobe and then click, you know, save and and then my Adobe research comes up.
This is you know, this is my stuff on Adobe. So you know, somewhat useful in my opinion obviously. Now as far as Salesforce, they are also quite cheap. They're trading for a 1.08 PEG. They have enough money to pay off their debt. They're also paying off debt. They have plenty of cash. They're actively buying back stock.
They're paying dividends. Their margin is fantastic, their gross margin. They're just not really growing that much. We also did a snowflake analysis this morning but worries not buying that one. But you know, their gross profit margin 78%. They're growing sales and marketing expenses at 6.7% and their revenues are growing at 9.7%.
So honestly this is another cheap stock. So it's it's not bad. Like these are cash generating machines. Snow Salesforce here 700 million in cash flow in 3 months and they're paying off debt and they're rebuying $2.2 billion dollars stock. Bro, it's like and they're paying dividends. I I mean, these are actually pretty incredibly cheap stocks.
And one of the reason well, the main reason a lot of these have tanked is not because they're bad companies, but because of these fears that oh no, cloud's going to you know, cloud cloud cloud's going to take over the world or whatever. But, you know, I personally find that to be a little overblown.
Now, if you followed me on Instagram, you might have also benefited from seeing me talk about cuz Netflix earnings are obviously coming out today. Netflix actually set is partnering with Dave & Buster's here or at least licensing you know, Stranger Things gaming machines to Dave & Buster's. Here they are installing it.
Checked it out on of course half price Wednesday with Jack. It's one of the benefits of kind of doing some field research. And I was looking because Dave & Buster's is also very very cheap. It's come off the bottom at nine bucks. They have a $400 million credit line and I think they're just blowing it on finally new games, which I'm happy about because they were spending it remodeling restaurants like the restaurant side and I'm like, bro, make the games work.
Make the games better. That's what gets the kids to show up. Here you've got five people working on the Stranger Things machines, so I think they're finally waking up a little bit. Obviously, much more risk in a in a consumer play like Dave & Buster's that's, you know, really tight on cash flow negative cash free cash flow for that matter compared to like you know, a salesforce which is just a company that has gotten beat up on in the software craze.
And if we look at it, it's 200-day moving average is 232, 100-day moving average is 260. They're way below both of that both those levels. Next stop really 191 over here. But those are some berry plays, very interesting. Looks like that's it also from the Donald Trump updates. So worth remembering use that coupon code over at meetkevin.com.
The coupon code is dude44. That does expire tomorrow. We'll have a big price increase. You get all the courses, every trade alert, all you know, all the nine courses so you can study LLCs, tax strategies, insurance, all those benefits, the Al For report every morning. You get all of that over at meetkevin.com.
You pay once, it's lifetime access. Uh, the Re-Invest AI is still slated for a really big update within the next two months, which is very exciting. We're going to be testing the bleeding edge version of it within the next, uh, week to week and a half. We'll start making some videos on that. That'll be really fun.
Uh, and, uh, yeah, otherwise, uh, yeah, make sure to follow me on Instagram. I try to post a little snippets of the kids. Like we had a picture of Ella lying diagonally in her bed and we're like, "See, if you want to save money so you can buy the dip in stocks more, just have your child sleep diagonally when they grow out of their crib,
and then you don't need a new bed. They can sleep diagonally for a while longer and you got some more money to buy the dip." & that goes. Congratulations, man. You have .
댓글 0