저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
Ackman는 투자 원칙(단순·예측가능한 잉여현금흐름, 높은 진입장벽, 강한 재무구조, 우수한 경영)을 지키는 것이 성공 비결이며, 원칙에서 벗어날 때 손실이 났다고 회고. 트럼프 재선 여부는 포트폴리오 전략을 바꾸지 않는다고 밝힘. 시장 지수(S&P500)는 아마존·구글·페이스북 같은 대형 우량주 중심이라 경제 전체보다 높아 보이며, 소형·부채 많은 기업은 위기에 크게 약하다고 설명. 치폴레 투자 사례로 행동주의 투자의 가치를 강조.
다듬은 글
what would you say is the mistake you made in hindsight and that you're would try to avoid in the future sure so there sort of eight principles that have driven our investment success and when we have veered from those eight principles uh we've lost money and uh after the uh 20 th we went through a very difficult period Circa 2015 2016 the two Investments you mentioned were big drivers of that it was a you know if you will experien is making mistakes and learning from them and it was a moment of reflection for the firm and I went back to the core principles that have driven our success for the first 12 years and I had a member of the investment team literally engrave them in a stone tablet not dissimilar from Moses's Ten Commandments and I had that stone tablet put in a what you might call A Deal toy sits on everyone's desk in the office and uh We've ad here to those principles you know ever since and you know we've been fortunate uh to return to the sucess we had for the first dozen years so I think it's about keeping to our principles are basically want to invest in simple predictable free cash flow generative dominant companies with large barriers to entry that earn high Returns on Capital that have limited exposure to extrinsic risk we can't control strong balance sheets don't need access to Capital to survive have excellent management good governance sounds logical um but you know occasionally we've diverged and there's uh those times you know there's a certain discipline that comes with Investments and there always seems to be a counterveiling quality that caused us to diverge but in really each case we've compromised on business quality or complexity we've been harmed from an investment standpoint the next president of the United States would be Donald Trump he's going to be reelected you know for certain would you short the market would you go along the market what would you do it it really wouldn't change anything that we're doing know our strategy is to buy Super highquality dominant uh companies that can withstand a pandemic or dramatic movement in interest rates that are not particularly exposed to the economy uh so you know who the president is it's not something that we would make a bet one way or another on the portfolio you know I I started as an investor I raised the first pool of capital when I was 26 uh and I made an early investment in a company called Rockefeller Center properties and I saw man making a series of decisions that made no sense to me it was just so obvious the right thing to do as to how to create value and it was being a frustrated passive investor that made me into an active investor and you know that investment turned into a very profitable and very high profile investment and with success uh you know one is motivated to to try it again and uh it's been helpful to the strategy over a very long period of time and it's fun and uh if you're passive you can feel like the market it's PSY and if you're active you can actually create some value and I think it's a lot more interesting than just picking Securities you know we we bought a stake in Chipotle at a time where the company was struggling a few years ago we put a few directors on the board we recruited a new CEO named Brian nickel it's completely turned around the company the stock is you know almost tripled in in the midst of a crisis uh and it just tells you that you know that's a lot more fun and it's a lot more profitable and it's I would say bet good for a lot more good for America than just simply being a passive stock picker can you explain that why the market seems to be so much higher than the economy is sure so you know when people talk about the market they talk about either the Dow or the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 is a market cap weighted index and what's interesting or fortunate and unfortunate about the crisis is it affects different companies differently and the more dominant large cap you know companies the more the stronger the balance sheet the strong the market position those businesses are huge beneficiaries of of the crisis um and what the what the market does not reflect are small businesses private companies more levered businesses that uh don't have access to Capital don't have the same dominance as the public market so a business like Amazon which is a very big component of the the market is you know is up 45% that does a lot obviously for the averages it's probably something approaching almost 10% of the S&P index today my guess is you know six seven percentage points of the index businesses like Google Facebook uh I think long-term beneficiaries and uh ultimately the value of a business is the present value of the cash it generates over its life and even if the cash flows are disrupted in the short term if they're greater in the long term the values will be higher so I think the stock market is a snapshot of a portion of the economy if it were if you had an index of smaller businesses uh the market would be down 50 60 70 80%
댓글 0