저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
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투자 10계명 중심 강연. 강세장 과신과 약세장 공포 모두 경계하고, 시장은 투자자 것이며 이익은 투자자 몫이라 강조. 인내와 장기 보유(씨앗이 뿌리를 내리는 비유), 이야기(스토리) 중심 투자, 분산 포트폴리오(15~20개 종목), 저축 우선·부동산·금 일부 분산을 권고. AI는 냉장고·콜라 사례처럼 활용자가 가장 큰 이익을 얻는다고 주장. 구체적 종목/자산의 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
us discuss about 10 rules of investing, these are 10 rules which I probably follow broadly in my life, so let's discuss about it a little bit, after that we will take Q&A, so remember one thing that I have many codes, there will be 30-40 codes of mine which you will find everywhere on social media, on Twitter and Instagram, I am active, you will find them anywhere, so the first quote, remember that your investment belongs to the market, your profit belongs to you.
First of all, it should be understood here that I have generally seen that whenever you see my song Teji Mein, Teji Mein, everyone is a genius, everyone thinks themselves to be a hero. The same geniuses who became zero again in the storm of recession. A new life begins in the making and breaking of things.
Still, don't lose your senses. Even though the party has started. So the most important thing in the market is to always maintain your consciousness. Whether the market is bearish or bullish, people generally lose their senses in the boom because then they start thinking that yes brother, Diwali is going to be celebrated here every day and this is the biggest mistake, so I remember it was in September 2024 and I was attending such a program and there a gentleman told me that Sir, my performance is very bad and I have been in the market for three years and my CAGR is only 35%, so my performance is very bad.
My other friends, their money got quadrupled, five times, this happened, that happened, so I got scared after hearing this and the first thing that came to my mind was that the condition of this market is going to get worse because here 35% of the people do not make it in four years. Does n't come in three years.
They are earning 35% every year and they are finding it less. So I had written a song that at that time the condition of the market was such that wherever I put my hand nowadays, I make double or triple profits there. Every day I think about what new thing I should buy. No matter who tells me, I wo n't let anything go.
Step here carefully, you will earn years of money in minutes. So this is the rule of the stock market. This is the principle of the stock market. This is the Gita sentence of the stock market. Increasing incidence is like a straight cardiogram. It is like day and night. It is like happiness and sorrow.
Here, the sequence of events is increasing. This is the rule here. So by saying this, there is no need to be too euphoric even in a bullish market and not too depressed even in a bearish market. Because history tells us that whenever there has been a crisis in the market, the opportunity to multiply money has increased significantly in the market.
This has happened many times in my life. There is the example of 2007-2008 and from 2003 to 2007 it was called the mother of all the bull markets and after 8 in 2008 the market crashed due to the Lehman Brothers crisis which became the mother of all bear markets and after that from 2014 onwards the market recovered and in 2014 you all know what kind of market it was during Covid, that would be the father of all bull markets and the recession that was there before 2010 would be the father of bear markets but between 21 and 24 there are many stocks which have increased 20 times, 30 times, 50 times, 60 times.
So, by saying this, there is no need to be afraid of this bullish and bearish market. I always tell myself that the bear market is like your friend. Bear market gives you the opportunity to create wealth in the future. But if you are surviving in the bull market, then understand that it is important to survive before the bull market because it is also necessary to have money to invest in the bear market.
So by saying this, coordination is very important here. Balance is very important. And I always say one thing that your mental capacity is more important than your financial capacity. If you have money in the name of skill, whether it is your father's money, your father-in-law's money, your mother's money.
If you have money in the name of skill for skill, then very soon that money is going to become zero. Liability is about to come. This should be understood and acted upon. Learning here is most important. Here knowledge, courage and patience. There is only one principle of the stock market here. Knowledge, courage and patience and the knowledge which of course because that song is changing every moment.
Sometimes life is shade, sometimes life is sunshine. Change is happening here every moment. The pattern which was there in 2003 and 8 changed by 14. The pattern which was between 14 to 20 changed to 22 to 25 in 225. In the last two-three years, you all know how much the pattern is changing and the old records that were set are all getting obsolete and there are such new names even now in the last two-three years, whom we understand that on 24th September, perhaps the market made a high, after that till date the market has not broken the high, so within that, 20%, 30%, 40% shares are up and down but you will find many such new shares, you will find 50 such shares which have increased three times, four times, five times after listing or have increased three times, four times, five times within 3 years.
So this is telling us that some patterns are changing in life, in the economy, in the world, in the market. So it is not necessary that you should forget the old things, earlier I also used to think that yes brother, whoever takes shares, forgets the shares, my song is that the market is his profit, he should take the shares of a good company and forget about it.
Now I feel that the time for forgetting is over and we need to remain updated all the time. We need to learn all the time. We need to learn new things all the time. Otherwise we too will become obsolete and in the last I would like to say one thing because I am going to take QA. I can do the 10 points that I told you in that also.
Everyone talks about AI and says that with the arrival of AI, everything will change in the whole world. It was the same even when computers came. I remember when computers came into existence, unions in banks went on strike everywhere, even in banks, saying, "Yes, brother, this computer will come, jobs will be lost." People went on strike, saying, "We wo n't let computers come." But ultimately, computers brought about so much progress.
I feel the same thing is going to happen with AI. We are afraid of AI, but whoever uses AI within AI will earn the most money. I have given examples in a couple of places, that the refrigerator was invented and it was a miracle at that time, when the refrigerator kept things at the same temperature and didn't let them spoil.
Or it must have been a miracle at that time, whenever the refrigerator was invented, 70, 80, 90 years ago. I don't remember, so that would have been the biggest invention. But today, there are thousands of companies making refrigerators. There are different companies in every country making refrigerators.
People used that technology to make them, but the biggest benefit was derived from those who used it, for example, Pepsi and Coca- Cola, they spread all over the world. If you talk about refrigerators, you can find thousands of companies. But if we talk about cola, then the worldwide monopoly is of Pepsi and Coca Cola.
That's because of the refrigerator. The same work is going to happen inside AI also. Whoever uses AI and learns to use it properly will earn a lot of money from AI and will have a huge fortune and I will read out some more points. It's time to create a fixed income outside the market. I personally believe that whatever promises I am making to you and whatever I am discussing are based on my personal experience.
Mine are not written in books. So it may not be applicable to you, so here is my quote for you, KYC is more than KYC. Know Yourself is more important than KYC. Before doing any work, you should know yourself that you should know whether you are capable of doing this work or not. Do you have the mentality or not?
Can you bear this much tension or not? Can you sleep well at night or not ? How much weight can you lift? How many shares can I take? How many days can you hold it ? The market will crash, there will be a recession , this will happen, the dollar will go to 95 and oil will go to 120. Your oil should not come out in it.
So how can you control your mind ? You should understand this. For that, I formulated a principle that one should not depend on the income from the stock market. I believe that yes, brother, if the stock market is my everything, then if I invest everything in it, then my household expenses will be covered by it, my car will be built on it, everything will be done on it, then you cannot create wealth.
There is a difference between the two things. Earning money is one thing and creating wealth is another. I believe that if you invest for a long time in the stock market, it takes 5 years, 10 years. If you follow the trend, then it can happen only when you do not have to sell shares during a recession, or if the market falls, or if the company has bad earnings in one quarter, two, three, but the story remains intact, then you do not have to sell the shares.
I have a quote: chase the story behind the stock, not money on the table. Money will make you rich, but the story will make you wealthy. We should always look for the story in the market, the quarterly numbers. One should not look at it etc., if the story is intact, if it is there inside it and if there is some hiccup in between or if there is a problem, then that can also be an opportunity.
You may not have the money to call that opportunity, but another investor may. I have such shares which I have been holding for 15-15 years since 2020 and with the blessings of God they have given me good returns. Due to this, some things have gone wrong and I did not book profits in those deals. Some got damaged but overall if I look at the bouquet, it is fine.
But that has happened when I am not dependent on my income from the stock market. Third is Be Updated and Well Informed All the Time. As I told you, every moment is changing. Pay attention to what is happening in the world. What is happening around you, above and below the earth in the world? Like AI has just arrived.
The data center has arrived. Energy has arrived. Like understanding renewable, all these have come. All these stories are being played out right now. There is a possibility of multiplication of big investments in these. And invest a part of your savings. Like earlier also the dignified people who were sitting there were telling you to invest a part of your savings.
First of all it is important. I always say that since I am a Marwari, we are taught from childhood that even if I am taking ₹2 to school, I have to save some of the flour and bring it with me. Ok? Even today the same pattern is followed that whatever you are earning right now, whether you are earning ₹00 a month or ₹ lakh a month or ₹ crore a month, your expenses will be accordingly, your lifestyle will be accordingly, first calculate the expenses for savings and then spend, what today's generation does is first they are spending, they are engaged in EMIs and now first they will earn, understand ₹00 a month and that mother is looking at her daughter that maybe it will happen for you, if there is an earning of ₹50, then if there is an earning then our expenses first come under EMI that yes, for this much I will do this, for this much I will buy an iPhone, 17 18 19 20 they are launching their billion dollar companies of 18 19 20, you have to tell that I have a Pro, this is mine, this is my that, that is and after six months its value becomes half of what it is now, you will have to leave this show-off, you will have to leave it and first of all Take out money for your savings, that I will save this and after that I will spend that, whatever it is, invest a part of the savings portfolio should also be kept diversified because there is no guarantee of the market.
This is not a guarantee of market mood. So by saying this I am not saying that I have invested 100% of my money in the stock market in my life. But now I have diversified it a little bit. Like the gentlemen here were talking about the bond in SGB, what do they say? In Gold Bond and of course in property, what we were talking about, commercial and residential, I invest in commercial property because there I get good yield, I get a yield of 7-8%, in residential I get a yield of 3%, 2-3% and a house is necessary, today's generation does not want to buy a house, today's generation even husband and wife are paying EMI but everything is going on together, so you have to understand that and invest for long term minimum five years, you should understand that it takes time, it takes time for any seed to become a plant, for the plant to bear fruits.
I have given the example of Chinese Bomb Tree at many places that if you sow the seeds of Chinese Bomb Tree, then nothing is visible on it for three to four years and you can see that plain surface land as it is. It keeps appearing. But it needs water, sunlight and air. You have to put in whatever nature needs.
In the fifth year, when you become frustrated, suddenly a plant emerges from it and within the next 5 years or 10 weeks, a 30-40 feet tall plant, a big bamboo tree, grows which remains standing for 40-50 years. The strength of that bamboo tree remains like this. So the thing is, what was it doing? For four years, for four years, for four years, it was spreading its roots underground, strengthening itself so much that when it bursts, in 5 years or 10 weeks, such a big plant will be created which will stand for 40-50-60 years.
This same rule can be applied to you in the stock market as well that yes, the companies which are growing themselves, spreading their roots underground, are automatically creating their own supply chain, their own system, their own ecosystem, all this so that once all those things are aligned, that money can create wealth for you quickly, multiplication happens quickly and the second one was always keep a balanced mind, as we discussed earlier also.
It is said that in a bullish market one should not consider himself a hero, that yes brother, I am myself. There is nothing else in the world. That too should not be understood. And humanity should be maintained. Whatever someone tells me, I did this, I did that. So I say only one thing brother, I did not do anything like that.
This is the Lord's play. This happened to me. One should never give oneself credit for the bull market by saying that I did it like this. I did it just like that. If there was no bull market, you would not have got your flowers. It's simply the same thing. So this happened to you. Such a bull market came.
You hold it back. You invested in good stocks. During market time you earned 10%, 20%, 40% profit. You did not sell it in that. This was your ability. You had discipline. Your goal was big. And by saying this the bull market gave you its result. So give the bull market credit for that. Give credit to the economy for that.
Give credit to India and don't take credit for yourself. Learn from your mistakes. Learn from your good qualities. Learn from how you earned your money. The most important thing is to learn from the mistakes of others. If we learn everything from our mistakes, then one life will be less for us. Will have to.
That's why history is taught so that you learn from the mistakes of others. So learn from the mistakes of others, how did this happen? This company was doing well, like what happened to PB Infect Fintech? Down 36%. You will not get all these answers. Because one such company also went down. There are 40 such companies which are dependent on the government and the regulator and they are also running.
Look at the NSE market and what has happened, you will not get the right answer to this question. Keep a balanced portfolio. Those who say buy one share, two shares, never do this or that in your portfolio. I feel that if you are a new investor, we are small investors. I feel that we should definitely have 15-20 shares and should not even open a shop selling 100 shares, saying that we are selling everything, even cigarettes, BT, this and that.
We are not selling that either. You should definitely have 15-20 shares so that your mind remains fragile and you are ready to learn new things. If you invest in five companies, then you will have five stories to read and take care of them like a plant, take care of those plants like those lions. My quote is invest like a bull, invest like a bull, invest like a bear, have patience like a bear, and be like an eagle, and prosper like a Lion, you have to watch your shares like an eagle, that yes brother, what difference does it make in the world, if Ukraine happens then what difference will it make, if Iran happens then what difference will it make to my company, if dollar increases then what difference will it make, if inflation happens to crude then what difference will it make, if the government falls here or there, this happens in that state, that happens, all these things are full time jobs, you should understand that investing is not a joke, investing is not a gambling den, if you will, investing is the most secret business in the world, I feel that there is no business more sacred than this, but 90% of people abuse it.
90 out of 100 people you are not a chartered accountant. He doesn't have an MBA, he's not educated, he doesn't have anything. If you have understood the trick of a share, then you can earn money in shares. I say at many places that you are so respected that if Mukesh Bhai Ambani has to increase his salary, he will tell people like you in the AGM that with your permission can I increase my salary.
You will say no brother, you cannot do it. Can't do this. Then we vote. This is your secret business. But you should not do this. Understand this and this is a full time business and when I quote a market reverse on your perception, if you will treat it as a gambling then it will prove to be a gamble for you, I know that the sentiment as shown by Prabhu Surat is completely applicable in the share market, with whatever sentiment you come here, the market will do it for you with the same sentiment, do not consider this as youth and the most important thing in this is to consider it as business, if any person does business, if any person opens a shop, if anyone does it then he will continuously open a shop here.
So many people will come here. There will be so much food fall. The shop will be of so many square feet and I will keep goods worth so much. I will be interested in this much. This much electricity will be used. This is how much inventory will be required. In how many days will there be profit ? In how many days will it break?
People use all these formulas even within companies. They are setting up a company on your behalf. You should try to understand their mind. You also think how much money should I invest, for how many years and what percentage of my portfolio should I invest. What is the margin of safety on this? How much money can I lose in this mess and I don't need this money for two- three years or four years.
When I invest in shares, I don't add money. I think yours is my court that your investment belongs to the market and your profit belongs to you. I do not have any rights over the investment I have made. I am the custodian. Like in a way the custodian in the sense the money is mine. But your demat statement belongs to the mark.
Your bank statement belongs to very simple demat because I don't know, today I think that my portfolio has become worth ₹1 crore and I went there and bought iPhone 17-18 and after that yesterday my portfolio went down by 50 rupees, I will go to sell it and I will get it down by ₹00, so what I mean to say is that spend the money that is in the bank and do not spend it by looking at the portfolio of the stock market, one last thing about it is that luck does matter, do good, this must be kept in mind in life, see you are not creating anything, try to understand it, it is just a mind game, we are investing money in the stock market, if we understand some company, this will happen, that will happen, if you are there then this will happen, if you are there then that will happen, all this is mental imagination, okay, you are investing money in it, your mind or the biggest role which I feel like this plays in the stock market is your brain, your mind plays a big role for you, immediately your mind will fly, oh this will sink, oh this is it It will be felt immediately, it will become four times, five times, keep a balanced mind and do good deeds.
Help people. That will improve your actions. Your mindset will improve and ultimately it will open the doors of success for you. Thank you very much. Now I am answering the question
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