저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 소매업은 오프프라이스 또는 온라인에 완전히 집중해야 살아남으며, 그 외 업태는 코로나 이후 더 어려워진다. [리테일 업종 분석] - 오프프라이스 체인 Burlington은 매출 3.9%로 예상(2.9%)을 크게 상회하고 마진 개선 여지가 있어 매수 의견. - 전통 오프라인·온라인 혼합형 Kohl's는 실적은 무난했으나 배당 인상에도 주가가 급락, 배당 지속성에 대한 의문이 있음. 온라인도 오프프라이스도 아니라 부진하다는 평가. [백화점 및 할인점] - Macy's는 백화점 자산 매각, 점포 폐쇄, 부채 상환 등을 진행 중이나 배당수익률 13% 수준으로 시장이 배당 삭감을 암시하고 있다고 해석. - Walmart는 오프프라이스·온라인 전략이 잘 작동해 긍정적. Kroger도 실적이 좋아 오프프라이스·온라인에 가까운 기업으로 언급. - Costco는 실적이 매우 좋아 긍정적으로 평가. [달러스토어] - Dollar General은 잘 운영되는 오프프라이스 모델로 호평, 보유 긍정적. - Dollar Tree는 Family Dollar 인수 이후 주가가 약세. 중국 공급망 차질과 관세, 코로나 영향으로 관망(sideline) 권고. [기타 종목 코멘트] - CBS(CVS)는 헬스보험 사업 추가로 매력적이라며 보유 의견. Walgreens는 단순 드럭스토어라 비추천. - Electronic Arts(EA)는 집콕 수요 수혜 기대 긍정적, Take-Two를 더 선호. - Rite Aid는 공매도 청산에 따른 급등으로 보고 질 낮은 투기 종목으로 판단. - Big Lots는 실적 미스로 부정적, 주가 하락 시 이익실현 후 반등 자리가 될 수 있다고 언급. [시장 전망 및 리스크] - 코로나 팬데믹 공포로 소매주 전반에 매도 압력이 있으며, 이는 기업 실적보다 투자자 심리(매수자들이 주식을 원하지 않는 점)에 기인한다고 설명. - 중국 의존도, 관세, 팬데믹 확산이 주요 리스크. [출연자 발언] - 소매 업종 전반에 대해 단기적으로 어려움이 예상되나, 오프프라이스·온라인 강자는 매수 기회로 봄.
다듬은 글
This is an English-language transcript, so I'll edit it in English and keep the speaker's first-person voice.
If you want to win in retail, you need to be off-price or online. Everything else is in trouble, especially in this post-coronavirus world, where things are getting a whole lot tougher for the whole industry. Today, the company called Burlington Stores — the owner of Burlington, if you've shopped there, and I kind of like it — reported a great quarter. Although its stock ended up closing down slightly, thanks to the gravitational pull of the 40-day averages, Burlington, a classic off-price chain, put up 3.9% same-store sales growth, but it was only looking for 2.9%. That's a major beat, along with some margin expansion and the promise of more down the road. Burlington has a bright future, even if the next few months might be difficult for the whole industry. It's a buy.
On the other end, there are more traditional brick-and-mortar chains with an online strategy that just isn't as good as Target or Walmart. Kohl's delivered an in-line quarter and boosted the dividend, but after rallying, ever so briefly, the stock started falling like a rock, including a brutal 6% decline just today. At these levels, the darn thing yields 8.25%. Typically, that would say the payout may be in danger, but they just raised the dividend 5%. How's that possible? Simple: Kohl's is neither off-price nor truly online, so its stock goes bang. I mean, if it's not financially attractive, it's not attractive.
Same goes for Macy's, at least when it comes to the numbers. Recently, the department stores have been shedding assets, closing stores, paying down debt, even developing their own off-price chain called Backstage, while cashing in on the cosmetics boom with Mercury. And what does that get you? Nothing but losses for those who own the stock. Macy's has fallen so far that it now yields 13%, which is the market's way of telling you that CEO Jeff Gennette needs to cut the dividend. Would he do that to preserve the cash, even though the company is profitable? Maybe. Certainly not in the plan. What matters, again, is that Macy's is considered a full-price brick-and-mortar business in an off-price, online world. Worse, it's more based in most of the country, and tourism-based in New York. Those two millstones are the last thing a portfolio manager wants hanging around her neck, especially with this virus in the picture.
Now, contrast that with Walmart. It's got an extraordinary off-price and omnichannel strategy, and the Walmart stock barely budged today, down less than 1%. It gives you everything a stock picker would want. Now, there are some hybrids. I like CVS, not because of its drugstores, but because it's adding a health insurance division, which looks a lot more attractive in a world where Joe Biden is the presumptive Democratic nominee. I don't like Walgreens, though, because it's just a drugstore. We own CVS in our Charitable Trust and Action Alerts PLUS, so you can follow what I say about CVS by joining the Club.
Kroger is another one that's working, with good numbers today. The stock really surged, up 8%. I think Kroger is about as close to off-price and online as an old-line supermarket can get. Costco's results were awesome tonight, and that's the place to go if the market crumbles on coronavirus-related fears. I'm sure there'll be some profit-taking. It's been a horse race.
The old-word hybrid, the dollar stores. Dollar General has been one of the best performers of the year. It's incredibly well run and keeps expanding. Where's the little competition? Dollar General is off-price for certain, and I like the model. But then there's Dollar Tree. We had them all on last night. These guys used to be the king of the dollar stores, where I shop, until they bought the under-managed Family Dollar five years ago. Since then, the stock's been a disaster. It's down about two bucks since the deal closed. During that exact same period, Dollar General nearly doubled. Is it time, therefore, to take your profits in Dollar General and plow into Dollar Tree? Not yet. For now, this is strictly a show-me story. Dollar Tree CEO Gary Philbin acknowledged on last night's show, right here, that the company's dependence on China is causing real supply chain disruption. Of course, there are also tariff issues, and the coronavirus has shut down vast parts of the Chinese economy. It's not good for them. That said, the dollar stores are certainly the right concept. If Dollar Tree gets it right, you could have a huge gain, but that still needs to be proved. So stay on the sidelines for now.
You want to succeed in retail? You need to fully commit to off-price or online. Everything else is going to have a much harder time, in general, especially in the middle of a possible pandemic. And remember, it has more to do with buyers not wanting these stocks than it does with how the companies are actually doing.
Okay, I want to go to Lee in New York. Lee, hey Jim, how are you? I'm doing well, how about you? I'm doing great. I want to put you on the phone with my son. He's got a question for you. We watch you every night, and I try to teach them the importance of investing at a young age, like you always preach here. Here's my son, hold on. Okay, thank you. Hey, Jim, what's going on? This is Lee Jin-yu from New York. I'm 11 years old, and I watch with my dad every night. I love your show. Thank you. What's going on, friend? I want to buy my first stock, and my question is about video games. I play FIFA, Madden, and NHL, made by the company Electronic Arts, symbol EA. The market goes up and down every day. Do you think it's a buy? He's got horse sense. I like EA. Candidly, I like Take-Two better, and I like Activision better. But you know what? Like the games, know them, and that's something people are going to do, stay at home. These stocks have been acting very well. I was going to recommend the group again today. So I bless EA, and thank you for the call. Like that kid, I mean, a sharp mind.
Right now we've got Will in Georgia. Please, Will. Hey, Jim, you're a gentleman and a scholar. Oh boy, my dad always said that you're real nice guys. What's going on? My call is regarding the retail pharmacy stocks, and by the way, I do own CVS. So today CVS is down 15%, Walgreens is down 20%, and Rite Aid is up 2%. I have two questions. First, on this green earth, how is Rite Aid at $4 when less than a year ago its stock was at 69 cents, and the company did a 20-to-1 reverse split just before being delisted? And they only have 2,000 stores, whereas CVS and Walgreens have more than 10,000 stores each. Do you recommend buying the stock? Yes. Well, what's happened is that so many people were betting against it, and then it turned out to have a pulse, so they had to go cover, and they're still doing so. Look, I'm sticking with higher-quality stocks, right? But I understand if someone wants to speculate. Right, I have no problem with that. I didn't like Rite Aid very much, including my pharmacist. How about we go to Jeff, also in Georgia? Jeff, hey Jim, booyah. In your analysis of Big Lots, they missed so badly. They missed that quarter, and it was disappointing. I've got retailers like Walmart that haven't been missing, or Costco. By the way, it's important this evening: if that stock comes down, it's on profit-taking, and that could be a great place to go. We call these high-grade portfolios in this time of turmoil. Memo to retailers: if you want to win, commit to off-price or online. Everything else, just saying.
I suspect much more money may be made quitting the Susan with one of the few stocks that actually ended up today. Don't miss my sit-down with Sangamo. Then, escrow, as the virus panic spreads. It is what it is. My one stock, many turns, you in a panic. Remember, panic isn't a strategy, but they do go to Generac first. After another tumultuous week for this market, I'm taking all your calls.
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