저자: Joe · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏의 버크셔가 12일 연속 뱅크오브아메리카(BAC) 주식을 매수한 것을 두고 패널들이 엇갈린 견해를 보인 토론이다. Joe는 BAC 대신 JP모건을 최선호주로 꼽았다. BAC는 트레이딩 수익이 적고 소비자 노출이 커서 불리하다는 이유다. 웰스파고가 BAC보다 상승 여력이 크다고 봤다. Weiss는 BAC가 모이니핸 CEO 아래 실행력이 좋다며 최선호 은행으로 평가했다. 다만 저금리 장기화 등 역풍이 커서 지금 밸류에이션에는 동의하지 않았다. Steve는 버핏처럼 장기 관점에서 조금씩 매수를 시작할 만하다고 했다. 경기 회복과 금리 상승이 확인돼야 은행주에 실질적 탄력이 붙을 것으로 보고, 현재는 JP모건만 보유하며 익스포저 확대는 자제 중이다. Joe는 백신 개발과 경기 회복을 전제로 항공·여행·오프라인 리테일·일부 금융사는 주식보다 신용시장에서 나은 선택이라고 주장했다. 반면 마이크로소프트·애플 등 기술주 보유는 유지하겠다고 했다. Scott(사회자)은 은행주에 가치가 있고, 가치가 돌아오면 자금이 회전할 것이라며 BAC와 JP모건을 선호했다. 웰스파고는 선호하지 않았다. 전체적으로 은행주에 대한 시장의 관심은 낮았고, 패널들은 현재 밸류에이션과 금리 환경에 신중한 입장이었다.
다듬은 글
buffett's berkshire hathaway has bought bank of america shares for 12 straight days sirot you own it what do you make of this move uh i do own it i mean scott the stock's still down 27 for the year we like it we like it for its diversified uh businesses i think it's the right place to do but i've been wrong for the last you know year owning this talk but i think going forward as we get closer to i think you know a normal market whatever that's going to be bank america's in a great place so is jp morgan so are some of these banks that have the ability to have a huge large customer base have wealth management m a they have you know a lot of businesses and are trading when you look at the market at a very cheap value yeah the catalysts are not there yet and and i could you know see that but i think he's doing the right thing accumulating it now so that if and when the stock price does move up he's got a good position in it yeah joe 12 straight days right for buffett stocks up eight percent uh in that time frame maybe giving it a little bit of a jump start 337 million dollars that they've spent they now own almost 12 of the outstanding is this a good move and should investors follow the oracle into bac and maybe the banks more broadly well i mean scott he could buy it for another 12 days he can't really fix the headwinds that are challenging the money center banks you know that i'm in jp morgan that's the one bank that i think is the best in breed as it relates to bank of america the reasoning behind why i am not in that is just the significant consumer exposure that it has in the absence of trading revenue that you will find in some of the other uh financials like a morgan stanley of goldman sachs and even jp morgan which reported a strong quarter so no i wouldn't suggest if you're going to be picking one of the money center banks that i would buy bank of america if you're you know buying bank of america right here you might as well just go buy wells fargo because i think you'll probably have more upside return uh if there is an environment where the banks all boats seem to rise so i think you still have to stay best in breed which takes me to jp morgan and if we're going to the thesis that all banks are going to rise well then you go wells fargo wow okay steve weiss joe says buffett's making the wrong move what do you say i don't think steve can hear me brenda um you know if you look at the financials yep joe painted a picture of why they haven't worked um you know it's no mystery but it's now the time to get in like warren buffett is doing even if it's a little bit early i think it really depends on your time horizon you know warren buffett is known for being incredibly patient and for sitting on trades that might not work for a while um so i think if that's how you're feeling then it might not be a bad time to start nibbling but i don't think we're really going to see any real traction in this group until we start to see more of an economic recovery scenario playing out that involves interest rates moving higher you know we kind of got a couple weeks ago a little bit of a a reality check when we saw how much the many of these banks had started building the reserves so they definitely are exposed in many ways to the economy and to the consumer in some ways um we own jpmorgan that is also our only holding in this space so we haven't completely abandoned the group but just think that we are not yet prepared to start adding more exposure here given what we think is going to potentially be a longer term time horizon uh before you really see a recovery so joe you're you're going to get a vaccine right you you agree with that right you're optimistic about that right you're optimistic about that i think you're going to get multiple okay yes multiple vaccines okay so economic data today decent you think we're going to get a decent snapback in the economy as you get into 2021 so i i heard the conversation that you had yesterday with josh and john and i know john used the words rage and and uh josh seemed to feel as though uh it'll be the moment where we'll we'll just feel this euphoria in in the capital markets i still believe scott that the areas of stress and strain as it relates to airlines and travel and entertainment and brick and mortar retail and even some of the financial institutions you're better served as mark lazary has discussed with you in the credit market not in the equity market so you're telling me in that environment where we have a euphoric lifting uh in in the equities market that i'm not going to be okay continuing to own microsoft and apple and home depot and nike and docusign and names like that i believe that i will be i'm still not willing on the equity side to step out and buy the components of the covet 19 stress and strain industries that have been so challenged throughout this pandemic weiss i think we got you back what do you make of this buffett move right it's not one day not three days not eight days 12 straight days they've been adding shares of bank of america well you know it's interesting uh i could probably buy it all for them in one day but away from that if i were to buy a money center bank it would be bank america i do think they're a best in breed i don't think moynihan gets enough credit for the job that he's done he's not as visible he doesn't do all the conferences that jamie dimon does but look at the execution it's been nearly flawless despite being tagged if you go back to the issues that the government put them into with merrell etc in the housing crisis so i'd buy that however i agree with joe the headwinds are much too great here the feds out there saying that we're gonna you know adjust our inflation target so you can see low rates for a very very long time that's a headwind i don't think you overcome so there's a new valuation normal for bank stocks and i think you're at it right now so i'm not there wow i can't get anybody to get excited about this at all boy have time's changed sirat i told you that buffett endorsed your your ownership of bank of america he's been buying it for 12 straight days and you you know i guess so uh no one seems to be excited about it no one likes the financials scott i like it when they don't like the financials okay let them not like the financials i think there's value here and i think when the value comes back you're going to see a lot of money rotate and yet you know joe had some great stocks in there but i like bank america and j.p morgan i don't like wells fargo i think the management team as white said are the ones you want to buy and these are the companies and the big money center banks that you want to do you
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