저자: BillMiller · 외국인
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빌 밀러는 개인 자산의 절반가량을 레버리지 걸린 비트코인 및 관련 암호화폐에 투자하고 있다고 밝힘. 비트코인을 디지털 금, 재난 대비 보험 상품으로 보며, 공급이 고정(2,100만 개)되어 있어 수요 증가 시 가격이 오를 것이라 주장. 과거 80% 이상 하락이 세 차례 있었음을 인정하면서도 장기 우상향 관점을 유지. 금은 지난 10년간 부진했고 비트코인은 같은 기간 최고 성과 자산으로 제시.
다듬은 글
on wealth track why investment Legend Bill Miller has gone really big on bitcoin I think the average investor should ask himself or herself what do you have in your portfolio that has this kind of track record number one is so is very very underpenetrated can provide a service of insurance against Financial catastrophe that no one else can provide and uh and can go up 10 times or 50 times the answer is nothing why Bill Miller has gone big on bitcoin is on Consuelo Mac wealth track hello and welcome to this edition of weal track I'm Consuelo Mack this week is part two of our interview with legendary value investor Bill Miller as longtime wealth track viewers know Miller has been a guest of ours since our launch in 2005 and doesn't do many TV interviews as he told me recently time is his scarcest resource so we are delighted that he is with us again this week Miller is the founder owner and chief investment officer of Miller value Partners a firm he founded in 1999 while working at leg Mason but took over completely in 2017 as most of you know Miller holds the unbeaten record of beating the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive years from 1991 to 2005 with the leg Mason Capital Management value trust fund his Flagship Miller opportunity trust fund which he created in 1999 and has co-managed with Samantha mclamore since 2014 has 2.
.4 billion in assets and has had many Market beating years interspersed with some sizable declines but today's conversation is not about Miller opportunity trust it's about his personal portfolio and here's the headline half of Miller's personal net worth is in Bitcoin and a few other cryptocurrency Investments and it's leveraged I asked Miller why he has gone so big on Bitcoin in his personal account I'd say It's a combination of of things as it would have to be to allow something to get that big a part of your portfolio because you know it's it goes against many of the tenants of uh of uh Financial discipline um on the other hand the the people that actually are the richest people in the country all are massively concentrated you know Buffett and Burkshire Jeff Bezos Mark Zuckerberg so they're not they're not widely Diversified that they may be they're they're highly concentrated and I think that's because they have a high degree of confidence or have had a high degree of confidence in the in the value of those Investments but my my thinking here was that um you I I heard a talk on on bitcoin given by the person who's known as patient zero in the Bitcoin World Wes kasaris and um wus gave a talk at at the Allen and Company Sun Valley Conference and he let off his talk this is 2014 I want to say uh he let off his talk by saying that asking how anybody owned Bitcoin no nobody in the audience owned it except for him and did anybody know what it was and a few scattered hands went up and he said well let me explain to you um why I own Bitcoin and he said and it's because I I understand why you wouldn't understand it because you all live in America and you have a rule of law and you have uh you know orderly governments and in most in most times you have you know low relatively low inflation and a prosperous economy and and he said but I'm from Argentina and my family's been there 150 years and we've been wiped out four separate times by the Argentinian government seizing our assets nationalizing the banks inflating us out with hyperinflation and he said so Bitcoin can't be touched by the government it's a it's a peer-to-peer decentralized independent Network it's a ledger that records every transaction that's public it's immutable and he said so the government if you have Bitcoin The Government Can take it away from you and he he said so it's it's think of it as an insurance policy and he went into it and talked about it I thought you know and he talked about putting 1% of your liquid net worth in Bitcoin and I thought that was sensible he laid out what it what it could do if it worked he he said then that it was very risky because then it was about $200 but I I I bought some then and I bought a little bit more over time and it became $500 and then I stopped buying it and I didn't buy it for years until just the spring of this year it had a $66,000 high price and then in four weeks it was in half now Bitcoin has gone up on average 170% a year for the last 11 years now but that's not every year it's just an average it's gone down three different times by more than 80% so that's that is you know very volatile and therefore very dangerous if you're especially if you're lever is you can be if you're on some of these exchanges that'll loan you 50 to one on on your Bitcoin but um each time it's been stopped at around the 80 low 80s level and it's come back and this this time I started buying it again at $30,000 down from 66 and my reasoning was there's a lot more people using it now there's a lot more money going into it in the Venture Capital World there are a lot of people who are Skeptics who are now at least uh trying it out and uh and I thought maybe maybe 50% is a good stopping point for it but if it's goes about down 80 or 85 I'll buy it all the way down well it did stop right around 50% and it slowly started its way back up again but I I bought a fair amount uh at you know at the $30,000 range and have been adding to various Bitcoin related uh Investments since then I mean number one you don't live in Argentina you do live in a country you know with uh with a rule of law and uh I'm not sure the dollar is really a stable currency but it certainly holds its value somebody else could you know create another Bitcoin um it's you know it's it's not governed by any rules rule of law so you know why such confidence in it as an investment aside from the fact that it certainly has worked really well and more people are kind of jumping on the bandwagon there's several different several different ways to approach that yeah um I I would say that right now it's it's best thought of as digital gold so it's gold is as people said a store value for 5,000 years right and gold is what people typically fled to when the governments tried to uh you know infl them out and in the United States frankly the Roosevelt confiscated everybody's gold in 1933 you had to turn it in or you went to jail so they can't confiscate your Bitcoin because there's nothing you hold it securely as long as you have an internet connection you can you can uh send it somewhere instantaneously at very low very low cost and the reason I I the reason I I I like the insurance company analogy is because if you think about people talk about the intrinsic value Bitcoin this is a Warren Buffett argument that Bitcoin has no intrinsic value it doesn't have any earnings it'll never pay any dividends uh and so so how do you even think about something like that it it is a new technology something that couldn't be done before but in any case the answer that I have to that is well I mean what's the what's the intrinsic value of that Mickey Manel baseball card that sold for $5.5 million it's just cardboard and it it doesn't even have a leg it could be counterfeited very easily uh or what's the intrinsic value of a Picasso painting which just canvas and paint uh and uh you know maybe a frame but people will pay millions or tens of millions of dollars for it and so it comes down at the very basic level for supply and demand so Bitcoin is the only economic entity where um the supply is unaffected by the demand so even with gold if gold which is $1,800 today if gold goes to $188,000 there will be a lot more gold mined because mins that are unprofitable will become profitable and so gold which which inreased today the production of gold is about equal about one and a half to 2% of the total value per year that's the same uh accre that Bitcoin has currently uh that but this year 2022 I think we'll drop below 1.5% on that so only only 21 million Bitcoin can ever be created or close to it it doesn't matter if Bitcoin is 100,000 or or 20 million there's only going to be that many of them so um all you have to really believe is that the demand for Bitcoin will grow faster than 1 and a half% you know over the next number of years and the price inexorably will go up so i' I've I've only recently been allowing myself to be described as a Bitcoin bull I I used to tell people they say oh you're a Bitcoin bull you you own a lot of Bitcoin I'm like I do own a lot of it but I'm actually a Bitcoin Observer and I'm observing its trajectory as a new technology and comparing it to the trajectories of things like uh the printing press or the steam engine or the railroads or the automobile or electricity and and it's following that very uh uh not not predictable because it's not predictable certainly in the ear early days a well understood path for the adoption of new technologies and you know Stan I think it was Stan dren Miller uh said earlier in the year that and and and now he owns Bitcoin by the way um but he said that Bitcoin was a solution in search of a problem and what I found amusing about that is every new technology is is a solution in search of a problem because you you have a new technology then you trying to figure out what you're going to do with it and so you know when you when we created the internet what are we going to do with that so uh the defense department had had good uses for it but it was tough for other other people to see and but now everybody can see what the value of the internet is same thing with the internal combustion engine which was very dangerous all but now that's taken over the world and now we're going to move to to electricity so all kinds of technologies have to grow into their uh grow into their potential and Bitcoin is I guess you want the theoretical answer to the question is it's a work of Brian Arthur Santa Fe Institute and and Stanford who is kind of the leading Authority on what what he calls increasing returns economics and what he calls lockin and path dependence in the economy so his basic idea is that when Technologies reach a certain dominance and they're they're the leader that's almost impossible to dislodge them even without a very Superior Tech technology and bitcoin's there is that what that's what that's what I would say I and the other Bulls believe okay but why the outside why 50% of your personal net worth I mean I'm I'm assuming that your the other 50% is in like Miller value funds or I I don't know how you've Diversified and well actually actually close to the other 50% is in Amazon all of the rest of the Investments that I have are are B are basically there to support margin debt because I always I'm typically always on margin which means I can take a lot of volatility now I'm not obviously on uh deadly margin I'm on using regular reg te margin and I've got a fair amount of margin capacity but the rest of the all the stocks could eliminate all the margin debt and have a fair amount left over and then I'd have those those if I had to sell all those to pay off the debt then still have Bitcoin and Amazon bill can you explain to me the concept of Bitcoin as an insurance policy there's 21 million shares of this insurance company outstanding and every day that somebody wakes up and says you know I I need some Insurance in case something you know in case the government seizes all the gold like they did back in 1933 or you know when when Afghanistan we pulled out of Afghanistan um Western Union stopped remittances so if you if you couldn't get money uh and it's still hard to get money in Afghanistan uh you were in serious trouble uh in Lebanon the L has completely collapsed Venezuela is a failed State and yet Bitcoin uh continues right along along that was your insurance policy against Financial catastrophe of one sort or another and what did the FED do when the pandemic shut down all parts of uh threatened to shut down all parts of the economy the the financial markets came unglued and the normal relationships between uh cash and bonds and securities especially asset back Securities got blown apart and the FED had to increase the money supply by 25% to keep those things from collapsing as they did in 2008 right during that time the Bitcoin Network functioned perfectly there was no run on it there was you know prices went down initially until people figured out wait a minute we've had a tremendous collapse here and the Bitcoin uh uh blockchain is functioning without a without a without any interference at all so I think that that explains it I think in a way that many people can understand if you want a little bit of Financial Insurance then then buy a Bitcoin or or a part of a Bitcoin the argument I get most often is Why Not Gold right which is considered to be an insurance policy against catastrophe historically so the the answer to that is um in my opinion anyway uh gold has gone from effect been around 5,000 years so it's gone from those make up a number and say a dime a nickel in today's uh Parliament and in 5,000 years it's gone from a nickel to $1,850 and in 10 years Bitcoin has gone from a nickel to $57,000 so why would I own gold especially since gold in the last 10 years has gone down in the last 10 years Bitcoin is the best performing asset category in the world so you recently marked 40 years in the investment business
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