Best Buying Opportunities in 2026? | Bill Ackman | Stocks | Investment

요약 보기

시장은 양극화되어 있으며 신고가 행진 속에서도 Meta·Microsoft 등 '구식'으로 여겨지는 대형주는 저평가라고 주장. 반도체·메모리 쏠림은 과열 신호로 보며 일부 고평가 종목 존재를 인정. 2026년 중간선거 전후 변동성은 펀드 리스크 한도(포드 모델)에 따른 매도 압력으로 설명하고, 상원이 좌파로 기울면 시장에 부정적이라고 언급. 지수 편입 여부가 밸류에이션 차이를 만든다는 지수 자본 쏠림 논리 제시.

다듬은 글

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01. What's your view on the overall market right now? Uh it's really it you know uh I think it's hard to make a statement on the overall market because it's really a bifurcated market but we're finding a lot of really cheap stocks in a market that's hitting new highs which is sort of an interesting dynamic.

02. And you know a lot of the attention is to semiconductor memory chips uh uh that IPOs that are coming and a lot of attention's been taken away from uh I would say you know companies that people think are almost old-fashioned. You know Meta is an old-fashioned company today. Microsoft is an old-fashioned company today and therefore they're less interesting.

03. There's not where the excitement is. The result of that is you know those stocks are very cheap. Yeah. Um so it's you know we're finding a lot of cheap stocks and you know query whether there's some overvalued ones. Which of course there are. 2026 is an important year. We do see the stock market hitting new highs this year.

04. We have the midterm elections and of course America's 250th 50th Yes. and 50th birthday. Let's start with the midterms. Obviously there are stocks that you're invested in as part of your strategy at Pershing Square. If we do see that typical volatility leading into those midterm elections, would that be a buying opportunity for you?

05. Could be. You know the I would say more and you know the market's got kind of two components to it. You know the ownership of stocks. You've got you know kind of this growing index ownership which is an incredibly important phenomenon. Today if you're not in the stock index um your valuation is going to be you have two companies.

06. You know McDonald's for example is in the S&P 500. Restaurant Brands which is Burger King and Tim Hortons and others is not because it's a Canadian company. It's not in the index. It has relatively limited index ownership. Arguably it's growing faster. Um it's a more diversified business. You can make some arguments for why it should should trade at a higher multiple than McDonald's.

07. Well it trades at a very significant discount. Why? Because it's not in the index. So you have more and more index capital and that's becoming an increasingly important thing and in addition to the the stocks that are actually in the index, actual ownership of index funds, you know, there are a lot of investors who follow the index.

08. And so, huge amount of capital is is in a very stable format, the sort of index ownership. And then, there is also a lot of capital invested by so-called pod shops, you know, Millennium and Citadel and others of they've been taking on increasing amounts of capital. And they have much shorter term kind of mandates.

09. Uh and they're the marginal buyer and seller of many securities. And the result is really more volatility. Um because the way those models work is, you know, you have to you have very tight risk limits. Uh and if, you know, you're going to lose more than a certain amount of money, you're out. And uh what that leads to is even very big companies the stocks can move dramatically if they miss a earnings expectation or they change their guidance or I don't know, there's some news event.

10. Um and you you've seen a huge amount of volatility and and geopolitics adds to that volatility. And of course, midterm elections uh will be part of that volatility. I guess if there's a material surprise, like if the Senate, for example, were to uh tip to the left, I think that would be a a pretty negative thing for markets.

11. Let's talk about America's 250th birthday happening obviously on July 4th this year. What does that mean to you? You know, what's interesting, I turning 60, which I did, you know, 250 Congratulations. Thank you. 250 years sounds pretty young as a guy to me, right? It's like you know, quarter quarter of my uh lifespan.

12. Um the country is only four x my age, which I find uh something I didn't think about when I was 10, for example. Country seemed like pretty old. Now, it seems like pretty The experiment is very young. Um so, that's one sort of notable thing. And I think it's important we're around. Um you know, and that the what's kind of amazing is a bunch of relatively young guys, you know, or generally guys back then, you know, wrote the Constitution and the Bill of Rights and um you know, set up a system with free speech and uh you know, Republican, you know, nature of government that's worked, you know, for all of our warts, remarkably well over, you know, uh a quarter of a thousand years.

13. It's amazing. While everyone is chasing AI and semiconductor stocks, billionaire investor Bill Ackman is looking somewhere completely different. Ackman says some of the world's biggest companies are being overlooked because investors are obsessed with the AI boom. Stocks like Meta, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon may not getting the same hype as chip makers.

14. But Ackman believes they still look attractive relative to their long-term potential. It's a strategy that equals what Warren Buffett did during the dot-com bubble. While investors piled into hot internet stocks, Buffett stayed patient, avoided the frenzy, and focused on businesses with strong fundamentals.

15. History does not repeat exactly, but it often rhymes. The question is, are today's AI winners the next dot-com stocks, or the real bargains hiding in plain sight? Would you buy AI stocks at record highs or overlooked tech giants? Let me know in the comment section.