저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 시장이 V자 반등 중이라고 보며 S&P500 연말 목표를 3450으로 제시한다. 과거 발언 평가: 4월 7일 대화 이후 다우·S&P500 약 20%, 나스닥 약 24% 상승. Lee는 크래시 후 반등은 대칭적으로 나타나는 경향이 있고 3월 23일 저점 기준 역사적으로 4월 중순 2800, 7월 신고가가 가능하다고 했었다. 에피센터(경기민감) 종목 전략: 에피센터 그룹은 S&P 시총의 약 25%이며 향후 수개월간 상승 포인트의 60% 이상을 담당할 수 있어 여전히 추가 매수 대상이다. 아메리칸항공 등 항공주, 카지노주, 크루즈주가 급등했지만 Lee는 계속 편입을 권함. 추천 리스트: TJX, GM, 부킹, 카니발 등 소비·여행 관련주, 셰브론·엑슨 등 에너지주, 노스롭그루먼·제너럴다이내믹스·스냅온 등 산업재 17개 종목을 고객에게 제시. 에너지: 원유 소비 회복과 함께 에너지 섹터의 장기 강세 가능성을 언급. 자금 흐름: 머니마켓의 약 5조 달러 대기자금이 경기민감주로 유입될 것으로 전망. 조건/리스크: 고용지표가 큰 상방 서프라이즈일 경우 S&P500이 목표치를 크게 상회할 수 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
so Tom we we had a conversation on on April 7th where you were you were bullish and you even admitted that day that it sounded I think the word you used was insane given where the economy seemed to be and you suggested back then to buy those so-called epicenter stocks that was the name that you gave them the Dow is up 20% since April 7th the S&P 500 is up 20% since that conversation that we had the Nasdaq is up 24% you were dead right you deserve a lot of credit for making that call at a time where it wasn't favorable and certainly wasn't popular perhaps to make that call how did you make it then and now what after we've come so far yeah hi Scott um yes I think part of our process has always been letting the market sort of tell us what what it's communicating to us and and back then we had seen credit was really on a huge amount of men and so if high-yield and credit was gonna be healthy than stocks needed to sort of converge or agree with what the credit markets were saying so I I think we were back then just thinking the stock market was telling us a vigorous recovery economically is likely underway and it's also consistent with how markets typically people after crashes you know that the rebounds tend to be symmetric you know so we we expected a v-shaped stock market bounce history would have said that you'd get to 2800 by mid April if March 23 was the low and and then we should be making new highs sometime in July so I I agree Scot it it's insane but in a way it it's almost clockwork in terms of our textbook with how it's matched historic history and prior crashes the the question I think most important for our viewers Tom who listen to you they listen to what you say they believe in your work is what to do now a lot of these epicenter stocks that you suggested people buy and I read them off at the beginning of our program like American Airlines up almost a hundred percent this week alone the casino stocks are up tremendously since you said to buy them near seventy percent the cruise lines in many cases are up better than 100 percent what are we supposed to do now I think the epicenter groups which are about 25% of the SP market cap and they're the most cyclically sensitive they could be more than 60 percent of the points that games we could see in the next few months so I I would still be adding to the epicenter and we put out a list for our clients this morning of 17 stocks that I would consider to be early-stage and their rebound you know things like TJ x GM booking carnival when some of the energy names you know Chevron and Exxon because we talked about this week how now that people may be driving more overall consumption of oil mines yet there might be this really shocking Bowl story on oil consumption and so energy could be making that you know more than twenty years sort of turn that works for five or ten years and you know and that but it's also some of the industrials like Northrop Grumman General Dynamics snap-on so I think the epicenter is still you're still to put fresh money in there and I think that's where the five trillion and money market dry powder actually will go into is the cyclically sensitive stock 3,400 is that still your your SP target for for this year by the end of the year yes so our targets 3450 I think if the recovery is vigorous and it I think today's jobs report was you know a very big upside surprise then we could close well above that level too you
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