저자: DylanLoomis · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인 강세 전망이 우세하며, 기관 보유 확대와 유통 물량 감소를 근거로 제시한다. FinCEN의 암호화폐 거래소 개인정보 수집 강화 규칙(3천 달러 이상 개인지갑 이체) 제안에 대해 Square, 미국상공회의소, Coinbase 등 업계가 반대 의견을 냈다고 전한다. 호스트는 규정이 현금 대비 과도하며 해킹 위험을 키운다고 본다. 빌 밀러는 2019년 헤지펀드 수익률 120%를 기록했고, 비트코인이 버크셔와 JP모건 시가총액을 넘었다고 언급하며 비트코인을 지지했다. 워런 버핏이 비트코인을 '쥐약'이라 한 데 대해 밀러는 '쥐는 현금'일 수 있다고 응수했다. 온체인 데이터상 유통 공급의 약 78%가 비유동 상태이며 실제 유통 물량은 약 420만 BTC로 추정된다. 전체 공급은 2,100만 개로 제한되어 있다. 현재 약 1,858만 BTC가 유통 중이다. 기관 보유 현황: 마이크로스트래티지가 약 28억 달러 규모로 선두이며, 재무 보유 목록에 29개 기업이 약 110만 BTC를 보유 중이다. 거래소별 보유량은 Coinbase 87만, Huobi 25.2만, Binance 21.5만, Bitfinex 14.2만, Kraken 13.7만 BTC다. 비트코인은 4만 달러를 돌파했고 암호화폐 시가총액은 처음으로 1조 달러를 넘었다. 연초 대비 30% 이상, 최근 12개월 400% 상승했다. 차마스 팔리하피티아는 10만→15만→20만 달러로 갈 것이라 말했으나 기간은 5~10년으로 장기 견해다. 호스트는 비트코인이 역발상 거래에서 컨센서스 거래로 옮겨가는 중이라고 본다. 인플레이션과의 관계에 대해서는 후속 영상을 예고했다. 대상 자산 중 나머지(삼성전자, 금, 엔비디아 등)에 대한 언급은 없다.
다듬은 글
welcome to bit by bit coin it's your host dylan loomis first up today we have the latest with regard to fincen's newly proposed rule that would require crypto exchanges to gather more personal data from customers transferring more than three thousand dollars worth of crypto into private wallets throughout these news episodes i'll do my very best to get the most important information into 10 minute packages and to educate everybody on certain topics and buzzwords if you're new to this space fincen is short for the financial crime enforcement network a unit of the united states treasury department not to be confused with fintech financial technology companies like square paypal robinhood and others the last few days have been opened for public comment and many big names in the industry have been pushing back on this proposed rule it could lead to crypto innovation happening outside of the us borders and it would also threaten some of the digital privacy rights of people transacting with cryptocurrency over 65 000 comments were submitted including some from square the u.s chamber of commerce and coinbase and they were attempting to delay these new rules to avoid a hasty action that could have some serious unintended effects just so you know the treasury department refers to crypto that's convertible to fiat as convertible virtual currency or cvcs here's what twitter's ceo jack dorsey had to say on this proposed rule the incongruity between the treatment of cash and cryptocurrency under fincen's proposal will inhibit adoption of cryptocurrency and invade the privacy of individuals yet the rule fails to explain the difference in risk as such this low threshold and its extension of kyc obligations beyond customer relationships is arbitrary and unjustified kyc stands for know your customer so basically with this rule fincen is trying to require these exchanges to provide more data than they require for typical cash transactions if this rule is ultimately finalized it would most likely be challenged in court because the time frame for commenting on the proposal was shortened from the typical 60-day comment period that's required and there is an argument to be made that providing this customer data to fincen would also be detrimental because fincen's files were leaked and the treasury department's systems were breached very recently and so customers would actually be safer using personal wallets privacy coins and other financial tools that are free from government surveillance and interference in that attack 18 000 individuals were compromised if fincen had customers personal data like home address and other kyc info hackers could surveil crypto users activity by associating their public addresses for these wallets with the users names and locations so we'll see how this one plays out bill miller gave us some new comments in support of bitcoin confronting warren buffett's famous bitcoin is rap poison statements bill miller is a hedge fund manager and the founder of miller value partners and to bring you up to speed in 2019 when many actively managed funds were struggling to post double-digit returns or even really keep up with the s p 500 miller's hedge fund returned 120 this is 2019 not 2020.
the s p 500 was up 30 in 2019 miller also said that the bull run was going to continue into 2020 for the stock market and that it did in his q4 letter to investors he mentioned how bitcoin has outperformed all major asset classes and how the market cap of bitcoin had surpassed that of jp morgan and berkshire hathaway as of the recording of this episode bitcoin has a market cap of 735 billion dollars but back to warren buffett real quick he called bitcoin rat poison and bill miller chimed in saying he may well be right bitcoin could be rat poison and the rat could be cash he also cited that the corporate balance sheet conversion is just getting started with companies like microstrategy square and mass mutual all moving cash into bitcoin so to have a traditional investor like bill miller come out and be so vocally in support of bitcoin to his investors is certainly worth noting next up statistics from on chain show that 78 of the circulating bitcoin supply is illiquid and barely accessible that means that about 14.5 million bitcoin is illiquid leaving only about 4.2 million bitcoin in constant circulation so one of the best parts about the bitcoin protocol is that the system is mathematically provable and the bitcoins are scarce when satoshi nakamoto the pseudonymous founder of bitcoin created the asset the inventor set the supply to cap at 21 million coins ever to be issued it's technically 20.9999 million but more on that in a later episode as of today there's roughly 18.58 million bitcoin in circulation with the remainder to be mined in the coming years but the takeaway here is that with this statistic that 78 of the bitcoin is illiquid aka being hoarded by long-term investors this creates a very bullish sentiment and reduces any downward selling pressure and it also limits the truly available supply and as i mentioned large institutions and fund managers have been purchasing bitcoin many of them behind the scenes and as quietly as possible if you take a look at the bitcoin treasuries list we see microstrategy leading the way with about 2.8 billion dollars worth of bitcoin on their company's balance sheet the bitcoin treasuries list has grown quickly this year with 29 well-known companies securing 1.1 million bitcoin to be held for their treasury reserves in terms of the exchanges coinbase is the leading exchange with 870 000 bitcoin on hand that are liquid for trading next up is huobi with 252 000 binance with 215k bitfinex with 142k and kraken with 137k and to wrap up today's episode bitcoin did cross the 40 000 threshold earlier today which helped move the market cap of the entire cryptocurrency market above one trillion dollars for the first time bitcoin is up over 30 percent from the start of 2021 and is up 400 percent in the past 12 months our favorite venture capitalist chamath pali hapatia said quote it's probably going to a hundred thousand then 150 000 then 200 000.
in what period i don't know maybe five or ten years but it's going there the reason it's going there is because every time you see all of this stuff happening it reminds you that our leaders are not as trustworthy and reliable as they used to be so just in case we really do need to have some insurance we can keep under our pillow that gives us some access to an uncorrelated hedge the thing is now bitcoin is transitioning from what used to be a contrarian idea or trade to a consensus trade that's partially where this price discovery and repricing of bitcoin comes from as more people decide they want exposure and they see the technology as more than just a hedge to inflation of fiat currencies i have a video coming out that will nuance the relationship between inflation and bitcoin as that relationship is far more complex than most people think so be sure to subscribe for that one but that's gonna wrap it up for today's bitcoin news segment please let me know if you have any questions below take a moment to like the video if you did and i look forward to seeing you in the next video i hope that you have a great day
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