🔥 Rare Interview Of Warren Buffett Explaining 2020 Stock Market Crash 🔥

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워렌 버핏의 1960년대 초 인터뷰(2019년 공개 클립)를 재해석하며, 현재 시장이 과열(PER 22배 vs 역사적 평균 15배)이므로 큰 폭 조정 가능성이 있다고 주장. [버핏 인터뷰 핵심 주장] 철강 관련 대통령 조치가 하락 시점에는 영향을 줬지만 하락폭 결정 요인은 아니라는 취지. 주가는 오랫동안 상승했으나 기업 이익과 배당은 늘지 않아 교정 가능성이 있다는 취지. 주식시장이 미래를 항상 잘 예측하지는 못한다는 취지. 강제 매도(마진콜 등)가 자기강화적 하락을 촉발했다는 취지. [유튜버의 현재 시장 해석] 무역전쟁 등 뉴스가 촉매가 될 수 있으나 큰 폭 하락은 과열 누적 후 더 큰 충격이 필요하다는 취지. S&P500 PER 22배는 평균 15배를 크게 웃돌아 25%~40% 하락도 합리적일 수 있다는 주장. 기업 이익 증가(약 31%, 13년)보다 지수 상승(약 100%)이 훨씬 커 괴리가 크다는 근거 제시. [투자 전략] 현금 비중을 약 50~60%로 유지하고, 지수가 10%씩 하락할 때마다 분할 매수하는 방식. 개별주 매수 시에는 월마트, 맥도날드 같은 배당 우량주 선호. [리스크 및 한계] 버핏도 시장 예측은 불가능하다고 강조했으며, 강세장이 2023년까지 갈 수도 있어 폭락 시점은 확실하지 않다는 점을 인정. [출연자 전망] 단기 대폭락 가능성을 열어두되 시점은 특정하지 않음. 현재 미국 지수 중기 하락 가능성 언급.

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※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. the stock market has been a good forecaster from time to time in the past it also has been a rather poor forecaster occasionally yeah hi i'm monk and this is the monk way let's watch a previously unreleased clip of warren buffett as a young man he was only 32 here and this clip was only discovered back in 2013 this would be his first recorded interview ever she was talking about a stock market drop happening around that time let's see what we can learn from this and see if we can apply it to today's overpriced market subscribe hit the bell and leave a like for more investing videos I make these every day and check out monks market mastery below for a complete animated course on the stock markets it's 50% off for the first 20 buyers I also have links to the best investing apps we've both for swing trading get two free stocks up to $1,000 for deposit we also have m1 finance allowing to buy stocks like Amazon for pennies links in the description below let's start with the interview it's black and whites and I fixed the quality and the sound and also added subtitles to watch the whole thing now explain exactly why he means I think the president's action on steel probably had something to do with the timing of the decline but I don't think it was the the factor which determined the the amount of the decline for some time stocks have been rising at rather rapid rates corporate earnings have not been rising dividends have not been increasing and it's not to be unexpected that perhaps a correction of some of those unusual factors on the upside might occur on the downside some observers from time to time say that the stock market is a forecaster of events to come can you predict or would you care to take a look at what do you think this might be forecasting the decline the stock market has been a good forecaster from time to time in the past it also has been a rather poor forecaster occasionally for example the last four or five years the stock market has been booming along and presumably forecasting better business which is really not materialized corporate profits are not any better than they were five years ago but stock prices are 50% higher there abouts so maybe the stock market is really correcting a previous incorrect forecast this time rather than making a new correct one nutshell mr.

02. Buffett can you give us your opinion exactly what happened what caused it well there was undoubtedly some forced selling the the week when the stock market hit the news the previous week prices are declined about 6% for the week on average and there was some stock that was forced upon the market vote by margin calls from brokers and some that was forced out buying in improperly secured bank loans and this in turn set up a self-generating mechanism on the downside for a while which we may have seen the last time in which we may not have seen the last of it now let's go over every line he talks about and see how he can apply it to today starting with the beginning I think the president's action on steel probably had something to do with the timing of the decline but I don't think it was the the factor which determined the amount of the decline the interview was returned to a big drop in 1962 there was an over 20 percent drop during that time but fay explains what the president did might be the catalyst to the drop but didn't dictate how much the market would job in total there seem to be a rise in the steel prices causing some issues which might have caused a sell-off during that time we can compare this today's news where Trump is definitely causing some instability because of the trade war of China every time this an announcement of a trade war going well the market will go up and vice versa market crashes usually build up over time prices go up and toes unsustainable and then it drops which causes a pop what causes the monkey to pop is usually just bigger than average news usually a small issue in the grand scheme of things if Trump announces the trade war will continue indefinitely and China agrees saying there's no end in sight distribute the next catalyst to a more than 20% drop something big has to set off the crash especially if every company is overpriced let's continue the clip for some time stocks have been rising at rather rapid rate corporate earnings have not been rising dividends have not been increasing and it's not to be unexpected that perhaps the correction of some of those unusual factors on the upside might occur on the downside stock prices were coming up the earnings and dividends weren't going down this means businesses we're not making more profits but a whole market kept going up a stock's price should be closely related to how much profits a company can make when the money goes up regardless of slow earnings this is when things get overpriced this is the unusual factor before overhyping the markets which means stocks and fall as easily as I can go up this is also true for today's markets everything seems to be more of a price by the year price to earnings ratios are high profits are going up slowly router markets price go up rapidly this is a bad sign and could mean the market crashes coming soon is a chart of American corporate profits since 2010 as we can see there has been an increase but it's also very steady compare this to the S&P 500 we see how much faster the market is going up this could be history repeating itself historically the S&P 500 has an average p/e ratio of 15 right now we are on 22 meaning company is America are priced higher than the profits a drop to bring them down to 15 again for a fair variation compared to profits let's continue from time to time say that the stock market is a forecaster of events to come can you predict or would you care to take a look at what do you think this might be forecasting the decline the stock market has been a good forecaster from time to time in the past it also has been a rather poor forecaster occasionally for example the last four or five years the stock market has been booming along and presumably forecasting better business which is really not materialized corporate profits are not any better than they were five years ago but stock prices are 50% higher there abouts so maybe the stock market is really correcting a previous incorrect forecast this time rather than making a new correct one he goes on to say the market can't forecast things sometimes it just goes up on high meaning it's not always going to be a good forecast it's saying is 50/50 sometimes in the markets seems to be true again our current market has been going up for 11 years now there has been small blips of 10 to 20 percent but it's still going up this is mean all companies are doing well and probably yes and no yes profits are going up but not enough to justify this spike Warren seems to think that the market will always correct itself what goes up must come down even if the American companies are doing well the market can correct itself meaning we can see a crash in 2020 without real issues in American business an overpriced market can go down even if everything's fine let's go on with the video mr.

03. Buffett can you give us your opinion on just exactly what happened what caused it well there was undoubtedly some for selling the the week when the stock market hit the news the previous week prices had declined about six percent for the week on average and there was some stock that was forced upon the market both my margin calls from brokers and some that was forced out buying in improperly secured bank loans and this in turn set up a self-generating mechanism on the downside for a while which we may have seen the last of in which we may not have seen the last of it this last part says no one can predict the markets we see it going up on hyper likely to go down but no one knows what's going to happen you might see this bull markets going to 2023 this is not impossible there's no way to know if the market will crash tomorrow or next year but fit is very logical in its thinking when it comes into markets or overall he thinks the stock's price will follow his earnings he believes when you buy a stock you're buying business itself a business that contains two profits is a good business and a company that's worth twice what it should be worth based on profits is overpriced is as simple as that Warren has a very simple view on the markets and he's definitely right about that we can't apply everything he said to today's markets because he stock prices are overpriced looking at this table of earnings we see just before the crash it was 103 now in 2019 is 135 this is a 31% increase in earnings in 13 years how much has a market gone up in the same period the market has gone up 100% not counting dividends like Warren says when the prices are up in earnings arts the market would correct itself is as simple as looking at the p/e ratio if we stop thinking about stocks for our moments and think about the business which is what Warren Buffett tells us to do a business with a p/e ratio of exactly 10 gives us our money back in exactly ten years a PUA issue of ten means the business price is ten times the profits for the past year so in ten years we'll get ten years of profits which is the worth of the business price this is not a bad deal because that's ten percent a year a p/e ratio of 20 will take twenty years again I'm running back using the simple concepts we can see our average p/e ratio right now it's pretty high if it goes back down to 15 meaning we pay less money for the same profits the micro would be less risky this is about a 25% drop meaning a crash of 25% to 40% might be pretty fair I'm saving more cash about half my money is in cash right now yeah founder invest slowly in the markets as it drops this is one of the safest ways to invest in a market crash I have about 130 in the markets and watch it 40,000 in cash my portfolio has 60,000 index funds which are still green this tells me the whole market hasn't crashed but many of my single stocks are in the red we have FedEx down 35 percents Nvidia down 26 percents Activision Blizzard down 25% the market hasn't recovered from its recent downturn completely the two Chinese stocks are suffering as well from the trade war IQ is down 44% and JD is down 21% my strategy is keeping cash at 50% maybe as high as 60% and slowly buy in as things start dropping but that would cause averaging we can buy and S&P 500 every 10% drops for example by $10,000 worth every 10% drop if it goes down to a 50% crash this will lead to higher profits for us if I were to buy single stocks at this time I will pick savory companies like Walmart or McDonald's companies I would stay alive in the market crash these are dividend-paying companies to have a good history I'm not dropping during the previous two crashes I'm making a video on these companies soon so stay tuned for that if you want to see my exact strategy at more throw amongst market mastery a complete animated course on a stock markets from beginner videos to swing trading and long term investing there are never-before-seen videos now available on my channel it's 50% off for the first 20 buyers using the link in the description below subscribe hit the bell and leave a like more investing videos I make these every day keep watching to invest Martyr the month way