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well let's start with the topic animating Market sentiment the recession Obsession JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Diamond weighing in not on the odds of a recession in his much awaited letter to shareholders citing recent bank failures bond prices and a bearish market now in his letter he says quote the Market's odds of a recession have increased and while this is nothing like 2008 it's not clear when this current crisis will end now that same uncertainty echoed throughout the market just take a listen our base case as well is still one of recession uh we had believed it was likely to occur in the second half of 2023 it just implies that we are moving ever closer to a recession from the aggregate side we do think that recession is unfortunately going to hit the U.S economy late in 2023.
you know how deep is the recession going to be very difficult to predict with Precision any recession is going to be painful and if this isn't a downturn that we're expecting to rival anywhere close to what we saw for the great financial crisis let's take a deeper look at the commentary from Jamie dimon and fed officials like Neil Kashkari joining us now at Yahoo finance's Alexandra Canal hey Alex hi Rochelle and yes there seems to be this bearish sentiment sweeping across Wall Street right now when it comes to the possibility of a recession Bank of America out with a recent note calling a recession a quote slam dunk you mentioned Jamie dimon and his annual letter Diamond really drilling into that banking crisis saying how many of the risks were hidden in plain sight like uh the rising interest rates that we saw from the FED he'd said the current crisis is quote not yet over and there will be repercussions from it for years to come but one positive thing that he didn't know is that this was nothing like 2008 he wrote quote this current banking crisis involves far fewer Financial players and fewer issues that need to be resolved that being said we heard from other Regulators like Minneapolis fed president Neil keshkari he said that recent banking turmoil has indeed increased the risk for a recession he told cbs's Face the Nation that these recent stresses quote definitely bring us closer although he did say it's too early to make any predictions about what this means for the future of interest rates as well as a broader economy at this point in time and then finally one data point that I do want to bring up is the ism's latest manufacturing purchasing managers index otherwise known as PMI that registered a reading of 46.3 the lowest since May of 2020 even more worrisome than that is Monday's report marked the first time since 2009 that all 10 sub-indexes signaled contraction meaning all indexes registered readings below 50 and we know that whenever investors hear a comparison to 2008 or 2009 there are many Jitters so tough times likely lie ahead here any even though stocks seem to have essentially canceled a recession in the first quarter a new JPM note warned that stocks are in a quote Calm before the storm so we'll have to see what this means moving forward and we know that Jamie Diamond does like his storm analogies but even as recession fears Loom what did he say about the state of the consumer well say the consumer at least according to Diamond is particularly strong and he highlighted several things going on in the economy to really drive that point down we have spending up balance sheets our strong businesses are healthy with credit losses low and that's on top of a very tight labor market Rising wages the supply chain which was a big concern during covid that has been recovering nicely so overall despite these future fears the economy is healthy you mentioned the fact that he likes his storm analogies and 10 months ago he did say a hurricane was coming in this letter he downgraded that to storm clouds which could dissipate and be nothing but I think what's clouding no pun intended an otherwise Sunny Outlook are these recession fears are is the fact that we have been experiencing this banking crisis and you know with Rising interest rates and everything going on in the economy there is this level of uncertainty so that is something that I think everyone on Wall Street is monitoring very closely especially these top banking CEOs indeed and a lot of Shifting Sands even the geopolitical landscape that he noted could be some some seismic shifts there as well depending on how these allegiances play out great stuff there thank you so much Alexandra Canal there for us
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